Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.1 to 62.8%
5 points   2 0-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3 +0.2
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)*-0.2
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.8*+0.1*+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.6
Anaheim vs Minnesota-0.7-0.7*-0.3*-0.3*+0.2+0.8
St. Louis vs San Jose+0.8*-0.0*-0.2*-0.4-0.5-0.6
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.6-0.6*-0.4*+0.1*+0.3+0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
86-111In99.9%1001,060*
853811-4In99.09900731*
843711-5In97.499111,067*
833611-6In97.199111,764*
823612-5In94.498112,710*
813512-6In91.396223,996*
803513-5In87.2943205,686*
793413-6In80.5915408,243*
783414-5In72.48776011,395*
773314-6In61.481108015,228*
763315-5In48.1741412020,197*
753215-6In35.16418171025,785*
743216-5In23.45423211032,411*
733116-6In12.94226293040,058*
723117-5100.0%5.830303450047,514*
713017-6100.02.020314091056,343*
703018-599.90.51129441420064,667*
692918-699.70.15254620300072,367*
682919-599.20.02194427701079,779*
672819-697.9No113393412020085,785*
662820-595.0No08313718140089,658*
652720-690.0No042237234810092,329*
642721-581.4No0214332481440093,668*
632621-669.5No1826201520820091,972*
622622-554.8No041813202416510088,581*
612522-639.8No021162122231230083,750*
602523-525.9No015317162721820078,279*
592423-615.1No002112924281761070,547*
582424-58.1No01074172926123062,567*
572324-63.8No0003292431228154,322*
562325-51.6No0020416293016346,390*
552225-60.7No01029233425738,465*
542226-50.2No000141532341431,796*
532126-60.1No0002927402225,240*
522127-50.0No001519423319,766*
512027-60.0No000213404515,123*
502028-5OutNo018345711,509*
491928-6OutNo00529668,389*
481929-5OutNo0322756,061*
471829-6OutNo0116834,285*
461830-5OutNo013862,853*
451730-6OutNo08911,996*
441731-5OutNo06941,325*
431631-6OutNo0496871*
421632-5OutNo397513*
411532-6OutNo199323*
401533-5OutNo199188*
391534-4OutNo298115*
381434-5OutNo19967*
5-37OutNo100202*
Total:62.8%4.7%9917157676655441,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasWinnipegNashvilleColoradoMinnesotaSt. LouisDallasArizonaAnaheimSan JoseLos AngelesEdmontonVancouverChicago
111530-07.0%1169107987978127
96457-1No333333
95436-433.3333333
94415-7No333333
93427-4No25252525
92417-5No2799918999
91407-67.17147777777721
90408-54.81010121727721255227
89409-46.361610988451085318
88399-56.1481089988859556
873910-45.710861288891864210
863810-55.8811987886755568
853811-48.16710879107678439
843711-56.279888886665568
833611-66.2610898897566458
823612-56.269988987666558
813512-66.4699981096656458
803513-56.269988896666458
793413-66.569888986666558
783414-56.369889887767568
773314-66.479888887777557
763315-55.978888887777567
753215-66.187777878877667
743216-56.297777779877666
733116-66.4107666669988775
723117-56.012655555101099775
713017-66.2135544451111910884
703018-56.21444333412121010883
692918-66.21533333313131111892
682919-56.21533323313131111992
672819-66.11633222313131111992
2718-86.11633222312121111992
662820-55.91533222312121011882
652720-65.61433333311111010782
2619-85.514343333111199871
642721-55.21334333391088661
632621-64.3113333338867551
622622-53.483333335555331
612522-62.563233324433221
602523-51.542122212222110
592423-61.021122211111100
582424-50.511011101100000
572324-60.210011000000000
562325-50.100000000000000
552326-40.00000000000000
542226-50.000000000000
532227-4No0000000
522127-5No0000
512027-6No00
5-50No
Total:3.9%8.73.02.92.92.82.92.76.96.96.06.04.64.71.8
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3 -0.1
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+0.0
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Minnesota+0.1+0.1*+0.0*+0.1-0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs San Jose-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.1-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Vegas vs Arizona-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.1+0.1*+0.1*+0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
87-111100
863810-51000
853811-499000
843711-597111
833611-697211
823612-594311
813512-691522
803513-58773200
793413-680115400
783414-5721470600
773314-661201008000
763315-5482614012000
753215-63529171161010
743216-523312121920100
733116-6132922423413000
723117-56252282483050000
713017-62181912211450810100
703018-51111415152090122002000
692918-605817823132145130000
682919-50241532015614103061010
672819-611121141312101760920200
662820-500707816520102117104100
652720-60040331611712710134072000
642721-50021112011913519711062100
632621-6100805516119105911731000
622622-50004221501391161213941000
612522-600020010065162814161262000
602523-50010053215028161915931000
592423-600002111100281520191262000
582424-50100700271421211583100
572324-6000030002513212318104100
562325-50002000151120242012410
552225-60100014112025211230
542226-50000141222272292
532126-6000015142629195
522127-500002719312911
512027-60001311273621
502028-50016203934
491928-6003133845
481929-50183358
471829-6042769
461830-5022176
451730-611584
441731-501189
431631-61792
421632-5397
411532-6397
401533-5298
391534-4298
381434-5199
5-37100
Total:5544453435343523223333333322222