Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances

Lost to Winnipeg 3-4 (ot), playoff odds down 6 to 53.4%
3 points   1 1-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-2.4
-0.2
-0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.1-0.7-0.5-0.5-0.6+0.3
Vancouver vs Montreal*+0.0-0.6-0.5-0.5-0.4+0.3
+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1*-0.0*-0.0
Vegas vs Arizona-0.0*-0.0*-0.1*+0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
88-109In99.8%100528*
87409-4In98.9991179*
86399-5In99.71000306*
853910-4In98.5991539*
843810-5In97.19910876*
833811-4In94.798201,572*
823711-5In91.496312,616*
813611-6In86.594414,200*
803612-5In82.091726,458*
793512-6In73.78710309,869*
783513-5In63.282135014,506*
773413-6In51.9741880021,100*
763414-5In39.26623110029,371*
753314-6In26.15429160040,371*
743315-5In15.74334231054,100*
733215-6In7.83137302070,451*
723216-5100.0%3.220373840089,281*
713116-6100.01.0123545800111,565*
703117-5100.00.26295114100135,007*
693017-6100.00.022152222000160,137*
683018-599.90.011348335000185,612*
672918-699.6No0740429100210,054*
662919-598.7No032948163100232,952*
652819-696.1No117482294000252,839*
642820-590.3No084023198100267,252*
632720-680.0No03281831155100278,477*
622721-564.7No011610382012300281,939*
612621-646.9No07435192210200280,701*
602622-530.1No031261427217100273,243*
592522-617.0No010167243017400260,327*
582523-58.6No000831632271120241,246*
572423-64.0No00041926342161220,182*
562424-51.6No000204173331122196,696*
552324-60.7No0010192737214171,634*
542325-50.3No000041836319147,219*
532225-60.1No0000211323916122,361*
522226-50.1No00016254325100,392*
512126-60.0No000317443681,197*
502127-50.0No000111404763,460*
492027-60.0No0017365749,093*
482028-50.0No0004296736,647*
471928-6OutNo02237527,153*
461929-5OutNo01178219,454*
451829-6OutNo01138713,588*
441830-5OutNo009919,463*
431730-6OutNo07936,299*
421731-5OutNo04964,110*
411631-6OutNo4962,624*
401632-5OutNo1991,645*
391532-6OutNo2981,088*
381533-5OutNo199595*
371433-6OutNo199362*
361434-5OutNo0100222*
351334-6OutNo199133*
3-34OutNo100517*
Total:53.4%1.7%46131561157887754,793,808

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMontrealCalgaryTampa BayTorontoFloridaCarolinaWinnipegNashvilleDallasDetroitColumbusVancouverEdmontonChicago
109530-06.3%211619231210
94446-3No5050
93436-425.0502525
92426-5No5050
91416-6No292943
90417-5No172113138218
89418-4No9163256196393
88408-511.01118233315337105
87409-410.6142111822164112991
86399-56.91416118231942221171
853910-47.11415216221723211282
843810-56.5181421623152233883
833811-45.11415215321633329102
823711-56.2141431434153433982
813611-66.8141331534153433882
803612-56.4141431434154433982
793512-66.2141341444144444882
783513-56.2131341444144543882
773413-66.3131341354145444773
763414-56.2131341445135554772
753314-66.2131341455125544762
743315-56.0141441455135554662
733215-65.8151541545135543652
723216-55.8161641644134443552
713116-65.8171731734143332551
703117-55.5191931833153322551
693017-65.6202021922162221551
683018-55.2212122022161111650
672918-65.0212222011161111660
662919-54.9212121922162111650
652819-64.7202031832152211550
2718-84.5191941733142211550
642820-54.3181841543123211440
632720-63.815156125493311330
622721-53.11212695473311220
612621-62.298464343210110
602622-51.466342232110000
592522-60.844121111100000
582523-50.422110010000000
572524-40.211010000000000
562424-50.100000000000000
552425-40.00000000000000
542325-50.0000000000000
532326-40.00000000000
522226-50.000000000
512227-4No000000
502127-5No00000
492229-2No0
482028-5No0
3-47No
Total:2.7%10.310.22.48.92.12.07.31.71.51.00.72.52.40.3
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+0.4
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.1+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
St. Louis vs San Jose*-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1*+0.0*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
89-109100
88408-5991
87409-4991
86399-51000
853910-49911
843810-597210
833811-495320
823711-591531
813611-6878401
803612-5829702
793512-6741310030
783513-56319130500
773413-6522218070000
763414-53927221110000
753314-62628263151000
743315-51627285192101000
733215-6823279234302000
723216-531723142386040000
713116-61111718201311180000
703117-50510191418172121101000
693017-6024177182171543020000
683018-50111221419131697040000
672918-60070813191215142811000
662919-500303620517197124301000
652819-60101215113181612108130000
642820-50000806102471615472000
632720-600030242231519139731000
622721-500010011501014247129520000
612621-60007046293101513831000
602622-50003012241511171712620000
592522-6001001601511182015931000
582523-50000080014101721191252000
572423-6000040001391722211462000
562424-500002000138162323157200
552324-600100013816242416720
542325-500001281725251551
532225-600000139202824123
522226-50000014122431226
512126-600001617313113
502127-50000210263823
492027-600015204034
482028-50002133846
471928-60183458
461929-50042769
451829-6022177
441830-5011584
431730-611188
421731-500892
411631-60694
401632-50397
391532-60397
381533-5199
371433-6199
361434-50100
351334-6199
3-34100
Total:2233233433452347223333444443333