Winnipeg Jets Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Ottawa 4-3 (ot), playoff odds up 4.5 to 60.9%
4 points   2 1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+4.5
+0.2
+0.8
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Vancouver vs Montreal*+0.0-0.6*-0.3*-0.4*-0.3+0.2
Toronto vs Edmonton*+0.2-0.7*-0.4-0.7-0.4*+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Winnipeg finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
87-110In99.7%100395*
863910-4In97.31000220*
853810-5In98.4991322*
843710-6In98.3991581*
833711-5In97.299101,009*
823712-4In95.098201,530*
813612-5In91.897312,476*
803512-6In88.295413,602*
793513-5In81.3926205,284*
783413-6In71.98810307,404*
773414-5In62.282134010,137*
763314-6In49.776177013,697*
753315-5In36.6672310018,327*
743215-6In23.85529150023,376*
733216-5In13.34335211029,254*
723116-6100.0%6.131382920036,309*
713117-5In2.21939374042,852*
703017-6100.00.5113645800050,084*
693018-5100.00.15295115100058,048*
682918-699.90.0220522420065,134*
672919-599.8No0124735600071,738*
662819-699.3No0637451111076,824*
652820-597.6No02244918520080,776*
642720-692.9No0124422146100082,868*
632721-583.0No0532192813410084,074*
622621-667.2No011811371911300082,626*
612622-547.2No0843519211020080,188*
602522-628.6No03124132622820075,528*
592523-515.2No01014622301961069,637*
582423-66.9No00072142930153063,448*
572424-52.9No003162134269156,585*
562324-61.0No0010212293419348,775*
552325-50.4No000015203629842,039*
542225-60.2No000021232381634,923*
532226-50.1No00001624432628,384*
522126-60.1No000316433722,951*
512127-50.0No000110385117,671*
502027-60.0No0015336113,498*
492028-5OutNo003267010,106*
481928-6OutNo0120797,630*
471929-5OutNo115845,385*
461829-60.0No0011883,812*
451830-5OutNo07932,597*
441730-6OutNo4961,764*
431731-5OutNo02981,179*
421631-6OutNo298752*
411632-5OutNo199496*
401532-6OutNo199273*
391533-5OutNo100192*
381433-6OutNo199117*
4-37OutNo100253*
Total:60.9%3.6%7815155955666651,437,130

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Winnipeg finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTorontoCalgaryMontrealTampa BayFloridaOttawaCarolinaNashvilleDallasDetroitEdmontonVancouverColumbusChicago
110530-06.1%231720151313
94425-6No5050
93415-7No333333
92416-6No3367
91428-3No102010202020
90418-425.019256136625
89408-5No2214113311311193
88409-45.41416191831116911
87399-53.78181732151211131333
863910-46.413121612143143151222
853810-57.515121511182212131322
843710-68.615151333142122141222
833711-55.114151522131322131323
823712-45.614151422122333121223
813612-56.413131433133333121233
803512-66.014131433143333121033
793513-56.213141333133333111133
783413-65.712121343134343111133
773414-55.812121244124444111143
763314-66.412121244114444101043
753315-56.41212124411444491044
743215-66.41212124411554410944
733216-56.0131212441145459943
723116-66.3131313441244449843
713117-56.0131414441144449943
703017-66.21515153312333391032
693018-56.216161633132222101022
682918-66.317171722142222111121
672919-56.218181811151111111111
662819-66.218181811141111111111
2718-86.218181712141111111111
652820-56.117171722142211101111
642720-65.9151515331222229911
632721-55.2131313441033327721
622621-64.31010944733325521
612622-53.067733422223311
602522-61.844422211111210
592523-50.922211111101100
582423-60.411100100000000
572424-50.211100000000000
562425-40.100000000000000
552325-50.00000000000000
542326-40.00000000
532226-50.00000000
522227-40.000000
512127-5No00000
502229-2No000
47-49No
461829-6No0
4-45No
Total:3.8%9.59.59.42.12.17.61.81.81.71.65.75.71.41.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-1.0
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina*+0.0+0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.0+0.1*+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
88-110100
87399-5991
863910-49720
853810-59811
843710-69811
833711-597210
823712-495320
813612-592531
803512-688741
793513-581116020
783413-67216100200
773414-562201304000
763314-650261717000
753315-5373021210000
743215-62432263141100
733216-5133028718210100
723116-662526122163020000
713117-521721182010704000
703017-6110142116161217100000
693018-50472210201741121010000
682918-60231741819111464020000
672919-50111112161812139151000
662819-6005058237181558310100
652820-500202319215171410850200
642720-600011091123815123520000
632721-500050342531617118621000
622621-60001111711014237119420000
612622-50008046283101413831000
602522-60003012231411161712731000
592523-501001401410172017105100
582423-600007001381621201472100
572424-50003000271421221793100
562324-6000100251321241910410
552325-500000015122125211030
542225-60000151322272092
532226-50000016152629185
522126-6000002720312811
512127-500001312273621
502027-600016214031
492028-5003143845
481928-600183357
471929-50052768
461829-60032276
451830-5011484
441730-601090
431731-50792
421631-6496
411632-5298
401532-6199
391533-5100
381433-6298
371434-5298
4-36100
Total:4444344534362336222233333333332