Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Los Angeles 3-2, playoff odds up 6.3 to 61.2%
4 points   2 1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3 +5.1
+0.3
+0.8
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-0.5
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)*+0.1
*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina-0.8-0.6-0.6*+0.2+0.5+0.9
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Anaheim vs Minnesota+1.1*-0.0*-0.1-0.9-0.6-0.8
+0.1*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs San Jose-0.7-0.9-0.6*+0.3*+0.1+0.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
88-110In99.2%100265*
87399-5In98.4991125*
863910-4In99.6100228*
853810-5In98.81000427*
843811-4In98.81000730*
833711-5In96.399011,101*
823712-4In94.698111,781*
813612-5In91.298112,682*
803512-6In87.495224,012*
793513-5In81.5943305,778*
783413-6In72.9905508,176*
773414-5In62.18677011,346*
763314-6In50.0791011015,265*
753315-5In37.27114151020,298*
743215-6In24.46118192025,746*
733216-5100.0%13.649232530032,465*
723116-6100.06.337263160039,788*
713117-5100.02.425283691047,931*
703017-699.80.615294014200056,320*
693018-599.60.18264219400064,326*
682918-698.90.03224125701072,487*
672919-597.60.0117383112020079,769*
662819-695.0No0113234171410085,334*
652820-590.6No072535213810090,442*
642720-683.7No04173321813300092,326*
632721-574.6No21128181617710093,290*
622621-663.2No172211222013410091,871*
612622-550.4No0415526181910300088,876*
602522-637.9No0210224132218820083,842*
592523-526.7No016120719241661077,967*
582423-617.4No0030143132424144070,255*
572424-510.8No00109171929229162,690*
562324-65.9No001050313273017454,807*
552325-53.2No003017213326846,223*
542225-61.5No0010031431351638,601*
532226-50.8No001001825392531,576*
522126-60.3No0000419413525,107*
512127-50.1No000212384719,914*
502027-60.0No0017335915,241*
492028-50.0No0004286811,386*
481928-60.0No00222768,446*
471929-5OutNo0116836,001*
461829-6OutNo0012884,168*
451830-5OutNo08922,921*
441730-6OutNo06942,012*
431731-5OutNo3971,310*
421631-6OutNo397821*
411632-5OutNo298587*
401532-6OutNo199312*
391533-5OutNo298195*
381534-4OutNo19997*
4-37OutNo100272*
Total:61.2%3.6%8815157866666551,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasCalgaryWinnipegNashvilleMinnesotaSt. LouisDallasArizonaAnaheimSan JoseLos AngelesEdmontonVancouverChicago
110530-06.3%1083324121112615113
96445-4NoYes
95446-3NoYes
92438-2NoYes
91417-5No881523151588
90418-4No71477714141477
89408-56.5111127749117117132
88409-411.551082581088281178
87399-58.010673288861065118
863910-46.67106116465759979
853810-54.9127657578987656
843811-44.4866467588879116
833711-56.887866768779886
823712-46.169766668968886
813612-56.288757667888876
803512-66.188766668778886
793513-56.477767788778986
783413-66.477777778767786
773414-56.376887777777777
763314-65.977988887676777
753315-56.466998896666667
743215-66.36611109996656667
733216-56.25512101010105555557
723116-66.25513121111114544447
713117-56.34413131212124444448
703017-66.24414131213123333338
693018-56.43314141314133333338
682918-66.03314141414133332228
672919-56.13315141414133322228
662819-66.04314141313133322228
2718-86.13314141313122322228
652820-55.74313131313123222227
642720-65.24411121211112322226
632721-54.6541010101093322125
622621-64.054888873322114
612622-53.253566652222113
602522-62.443444442222112
592523-51.742233322211111
582423-61.131122211111001
572424-50.721111111111000
562324-60.410001101000000
552325-50.210000000000000
542225-60.100000000000000
532226-50.000000000000000
522126-60.000000000000000
512026-70.000000000000
502027-6No0000
492028-50.000
482130-2No0
4-47No
Total:3.8%3.42.97.87.87.67.67.12.42.42.12.11.81.94.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Los Angeles 2 Colorado 3 -1.1
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina+0.1+0.1*+0.1*+0.0-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Minnesota-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2+0.1+0.1
St. Louis vs San Jose+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.0*+0.0*-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
90-110100
89408-5982
88409-4982
87399-59811
863910-41000
853810-59910
843811-49910
833711-596301
823712-495311
813612-591711
803512-687822
793513-582133030
783413-67317505000
773414-5622370700
763314-6502910011000
753315-53734131141010
743215-62436162182020
733216-514351842141030000
723116-66311882272060000
713117-52231613201340810100
703017-61151217141870122020000
693018-508719822102144140000
682918-6033183201351492070010
672919-50111511412111015501020200
662819-600100881651892125104100
652820-5006331811611710113072000
642720-60041116010101351671952000
632721-5020011045192161159952000
622621-610071219011111261111621000
612622-50004011405719281313941000
602522-60200102321038141612621000
592523-501006111901381417151041000
582423-600030014000271319191372100
572424-5001009000261219211693100
562324-6001005000151119231910310
552325-50030014122125201030
542225-6001000141223272092
532226-500100016152629185
522126-6000002720312911
512127-5001312283720
502027-600016214032
492028-500003153745
481928-6000183456
471929-50052767
461829-6032177
451830-511584
441730-611089
431731-50892
421631-6496
411632-5496
401532-6298
391533-5298
381534-4298
35-37100
341235-6793
4-33100
Total:4535343534353425222233333333332