Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Pittsburgh 4-5 (ot), playoff odds down 1.1 to 57.9%
6 points   2 0-2

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)-1.5
*-0.1
-0.5
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4 +0.2
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +0.1
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)*-0.1
WednesdayNone

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
88-110InYes100326*
87389-5In99.5%991185*
863810-4In99.7100294*
853710-5In98.59900541*
843711-4In97.9991848*
833611-5In95.998101,374*
823511-6In94.998112,170*
813512-5In91.596313,157*
803412-6In88.295414,749*
793413-5In80.792626,920*
783313-6In72.4879309,563*
773314-5In60.681136012,939*
763214-6In49.174188016,972*
753215-5In35.16324130022,395*
743115-6In22.65229191028,550*
733116-5In12.33934262035,140*
723016-6100.0%5.526363440042,414*
713017-5100.01.916354270050,053*
702917-6100.00.5830481310057,357*
692918-599.90.1322502220064,764*
682818-699.70.01144632600071,424*
672819-598.9No07374212110076,751*
662719-696.6No03244620330081,190*
652720-590.3No0113412610910083,668*
642620-677.8No0529242018400084,392*
632621-559.2No011615272612300083,519*
622521-638.1No0662625241020080,749*
612522-520.0No02217173022920076,882*
602422-68.8No0108823312171070,579*
592423-53.0No000321327301861064,456*
582323-60.9No00115173029143057,121*
572324-50.3No0000182233259150,103*
562224-60.1No00000312293418442,318*
552225-50.1No00016203629935,270*
542125-60.0No000021131391729,044*
532126-50.0No0001624422822,948*
522026-60.0No000215433918,053*
512027-5OutNo0019385213,693*
501927-6OutNo015326210,198*
491928-5OutNo0324727,534*
481828-6OutNo00118805,284*
471829-5OutNo112873,663*
461729-6OutNo09902,613*
451730-5OutNo06941,804*
441630-6OutNo04961,158*
431631-5OutNo397732*
421531-6OutNo298477*
411532-5OutNo199265*
401533-4OutNo199186*
6-39OutNo100345*
Total:57.9%4.4%88151476666655541,437,130

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Washington finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasNew JerseyPhiladelphiaNY IslandersSt. LouisColoradoMinnesotaArizonaAnaheimBostonPittsburghNY RangersLos AngelesSan JoseBuffalo
110520-05.2%12191114181510
94426-4No333333
92417-4No111111222222
91407-56.77137207720137
90408-4No3101015818131355
89409-35.64991562611151726
88399-48.857131217123141174210
87389-53.2412101243243111210338
863810-46.841111120442481374411
853710-54.63910134433413109547
843711-45.841211113425410994410
833611-55.8410101144344999449
823511-66.641010105444410109448
813512-56.54109944454998449
803412-66.45999555559109448
793413-55.859101055555998457
783313-66.05910955555998548
773314-56.3599955555998558
763214-66.35109955555898558
753215-56.35991055555898558
743115-66.2410111055554998447
733116-56.34111110444449108448
723016-66.241212114444410109338
713017-56.2313131233333101110338
702917-66.3214141322222111110229
692918-56.2215151322222121210219
3019-36.4215151422222121210229
682818-66.3215151411111121211119
2717-86.6215151411111121211119
672819-56.1216151411111121211119
2920-36.5215161411111121211119
662719-66.1215151322211111210119
2618-86.2215141322222111110118
652720-55.631313122222210109217
2821-35.631313122222210109127
642620-65.1411111033322887226
2519-84.741010833322776225
632621-53.7488733322555223
622521-62.3355422211333112
612522-51.3233211111221111
602523-40.5111100000111000
592423-50.2011000000000000
582424-40.1000000000000000
572324-50.00000000000000
562325-40.000000000
552326-3No000000
542428-00.00000
532227-3No0000
522127-4No0
6-51No
Total:3.6%2.17.87.87.01.71.71.71.61.56.06.15.41.41.34.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)+0.3
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4 -0.0
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Anaheim vs Minnesota*-0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1+0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs San Jose*-0.0-0.0*-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
88-110100
87389-5991
863810-41000
853710-599100
843711-49811
833611-596310
823511-695311
813512-592531
803412-688741
793413-581116020
783313-6721590300
773314-561201306000
763214-649251718000
753215-53528222120000
743115-623292531711100
733116-5122727622320200
723016-652125112464040000
713017-5214201523108070000
702917-6171317171614112110100
692918-5036161017194173202000
682818-6012124142091976060000
672819-5016181414161213111110100
662719-60030371581519417430300
652720-5010121021118101899081000
642620-600050410141113182166100
632621-5000101311411207191561000
622521-6000016151412132116831000
612522-500020151151522191252000
602422-6000000171514212116831000
592423-500003014111922191262000
582323-60001001381522221683100
572324-500000002613212318104100
562224-60000000151220242112410
552225-5000014112025221241
542125-600001412222822102
532126-500015142629206
522026-60002719323012
512027-5000311273722
501927-60016204033
491928-5002133946
481828-600183259
471829-50042570
461729-6022177
451730-511584
441630-6001089
431631-50793
421531-6595
411532-5397
401533-4397
6-39100
Total:4444434343434342443333333322222