Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 50/50

Beat Washington 5-4 (ot), playoff odds up 4.8 to 46.4%
4 points   2 2-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)+4.5
+0.3
+0.5
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4 +0.1
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 *+0.1
WednesdayNone

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
91-108InYes100119*
90417-4In88.9%89119*
85-89InYes100360*
843810-4In98.09900300*
833710-5In96.59910536*
823711-4In94.19820868*
813611-5In92.298201,287*
803612-4In86.194512,172*
793512-5In81.292623,178*
783513-4In70.78610404,775*
773413-5In60.08014606,871*
763313-6In48.27318909,644*
753314-5In35.36323140012,976*
743214-6In22.75229191017,387*
733215-5In12.03833262022,210*
723115-6100.0%5.427353540028,291*
713116-5100.01.915344380034,832*
703016-6100.00.4829491410042,238*
693017-599.90.13215022200049,483*
682917-699.70.01134633600056,841*
672918-598.9No0736421211064,918*
662818-696.4No03244621330071,746*
652819-590.1No011241271091076,639*
642719-677.4No0428252018400080,973*
632720-558.7No01151528251330083,813*
622620-637.3No00662525241020085,292*
612621-519.5No02216173023920083,674*
602521-68.2No00088243121810080,800*
592522-52.9No000321327301861076,558*
582422-60.9No00115163029143070,944*
572423-50.2No0000182233259164,565*
562323-60.1No0000312293419457,494*
552324-50.0No00015203629949,596*
542224-60.0No000021131381742,420*
532225-50.0No0001623432835,368*
522125-6OutNo00316424028,769*
512126-50.0No0019385222,883*
502026-6OutNo005316318,055*
492027-5OutNo003257313,930*
481927-6OutNo01188110,176*
471928-5OutNo0113877,573*
461828-6OutNo09915,399*
451829-5OutNo06943,883*
441729-6OutNo04962,535*
431730-5OutNo2981,676*
421630-6OutNo02981,139*
411631-5OutNo199748*
401531-6OutNo0100458*
391532-5OutNo0100257*
381432-6OutNo199145*
4-37OutNo100327*
Total:46.4%2.3%55111267677777771,437,130

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Pittsburgh finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupVegasNew JerseyPhiladelphiaWashingtonNY IslandersSt. LouisColoradoMinnesotaArizonaAnaheimBostonNY RangersLos AngelesSan JoseBuffalo
108520-08.7%1515132211101410
93436-3NoYes
92437-2NoYes
91416-550.05050
90417-422.22233111122
89407-516.717251788888
88397-69.71031933633613101036
87398-54.52511141175552722149
86399-45.0411146955454126439
85389-56.4310811102435211126310
843810-47.35121212962325118429
833710-56.2591311943534810357
823711-45.341010129435441010536
813611-56.149111195555488339
803612-47.3510109955455109557
793512-55.858109106545489558
783513-45.75109996555597457
773413-56.35991095555587557
763313-66.45991095555588557
753314-56.359101095555588447
743214-66.1510101094555488447
733215-56.24111111104444498447
723115-66.34121212113444398338
713116-56.131313131233333109328
703016-66.321414141322222119228
693017-56.2214151513222221110129
682917-66.3215151514111111210118
2816-86.3115151513111111210119
672918-56.2215151513111111110119
3019-35.9215151514112111210118
662818-66.1215151413222111110118
2717-86.331414141222222109118
652819-55.631213121122222108227
2920-35.83121212112222298217
642719-65.0410101093332287225
2618-84.54109983332276225
632720-53.7477763332254223
622620-62.4344442221132112
612621-51.3223221111111101
602622-40.5111110000010000
592522-50.2000000000000000
582523-40.0000000000000000
572423-50.00000000000000
562424-40.00000000000
552425-3No000000
542325-4No000000
532225-50.0000
522428-0No
512227-3No0
4-50No
Total:2.9%1.86.16.26.15.51.41.41.41.21.24.64.11.01.03.4
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)-1.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Montreal*+0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.0*-0.0
St. Louis vs San Jose*-0.0+0.0+0.0*+0.1*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
91-108100
90417-48911
85-89100
843810-498100
833710-596210
823711-494420
813611-592620
803612-486851
793512-5811162
783513-471151004000
773413-560201306000
763313-648251719000
753314-53528222130000
743214-62329253171110
733215-51226276223202000
723115-652125102464040000
713116-5213191524118070000
703016-607121718161411211100
693017-50361510171941832020000
682917-6012114142092076060000
672918-500618141416121311211010
662818-60030361481519418430300
652819-50010121021118101891008100
642719-600040410131114182166100
632720-5000101311411207191561000
622620-60001515131213211683100
612621-500020151151522191252000
602521-600000161614212216931000
592522-500003014111823201262000
582422-600010013816222216831000
572423-500000002613202319114100
562323-600000151120242112410
552324-50000014112026221241
542224-6000001411222822102
532225-500015142530195
522125-6002718312912
512126-50000311273722
502026-60015204133
492027-5002133846
481927-60183359
471928-50042769
461828-6022078
451829-5011386
441729-60990
431730-50793
421630-60694
411631-5397
401531-6298
391532-5199
381432-6199
36-37100
351334-5397
4-34100
Total:2233333333434342444444434444443