Columbus Blue Jackets Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Detroit 2-3 (ot), playoff odds down 2.1 to 38.9%
3 points   1 2-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)-1.2
*-0.1
-0.2
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)-0.4
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)-0.4
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 -0.2
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4 *+0.1
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina+0.9*+0.2*+0.3-0.9-0.7-0.8
+0.1*-0.0*+0.0*-0.0*+0.0-0.1
WednesdayNone

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
85-107In99.7%100352*
84389-5In98.9991182*
83379-6In96.39811348*
823710-5In95.29712563*
813711-4In90.59423957*
803611-5In87.493341,543*
793511-6In80.6896602,356*
783512-5In72.8856803,607*
773412-6In62.87991205,279*
763413-5In49.5691317107,434*
753313-6In36.05917232010,569*
743314-5In23.54820293014,332*
733214-6100.0%12.735243560019,127*
723215-5100.05.923254291024,711*
713115-699.92.21423461520031,911*
703116-599.70.47204722400038,981*
693016-699.10.13154430701046,823*
683017-597.60.0110373613020055,101*
672917-694.5No05283920251063,887*
662918-588.6No0219382551020072,046*
652818-679.1No011132251016410078,976*
642819-565.8No052320172210200084,836*
632719-649.7No021411222418710046,749*
2820-450.2No0214122224186100043,727*
622720-534.3No018521202514510093,239*
612620-621.2No00421613252412410094,197*
602621-511.6No0101061927221130093,188*
592521-65.6No000521123282082090,097*
582522-52.4No000214152728175184,929*
572422-61.0No00102820312611279,315*
562423-50.3No0000312263321571,784*
552323-60.1No000161934301064,201*
542324-50.0No000031130381855,277*
532224-60.0No001623422846,933*
522225-50.0No000315424039,330*
512125-6OutNo0110385131,759*
502126-5OutNo006326225,539*
492026-6OutNo003257219,696*
482027-5OutNo02197915,302*
471927-6OutNo01148611,558*
461928-5OutNo09908,437*
451828-6OutNo07936,065*
441829-5OutNo05954,313*
431729-6OutNo3972,882*
421730-5OutNo2981,926*
411630-6OutNo1991,350*
401631-5OutNo199863*
391531-6OutNo0100497*
381532-5OutNo0100304*
3-37OutNo100558*
Total:38.9%1.7%3391166777788991,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Columbus finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupFloridaTampa BayNew JerseyPhiladelphiaMontrealTorontoWashingtonCarolinaNY IslandersOttawaDetroitPittsburghBostonNY RangersBuffalo
107520-06.3%1495211832269313310
91437-2NoYes
90427-3No25252525
89417-412.51313381325
88407-5No258833178
87408-410.31773331714107107
86398-56.21495996525963639
85399-43.816104112642810916410
84389-57.71274691012379410411
83379-65.286451193667941236
823710-56.0910466753510771039
813711-45.18106497544985848
803611-57.19764886459851038
793511-66.7984688646894948
783512-56.4886688655885858
773412-67.0776687657876857
763413-56.2677777767776757
753313-66.2668966867767766
743314-56.3559956978558575
733214-66.35410105511810548574
723215-56.04411123411910339483
713115-66.0331312331210113310393
703116-56.5221313231311122210292
693016-66.1221314221311122211292
2915-86.12213142313111222112102
683017-56.3221313331310122210191
3118-36.1221313331310122210191
672917-65.922131333129122210191
2816-85.933131333129112210181
662918-55.43311124311810229281
2817-75.53311114311810228181
3019-35.43311113411810329281
652818-65.133109441068327261
2919-45.3331010441079327271
2717-84.9339944969327261
642819-54.1348744747225251
2920-34.3348844757226251
632719-63.2335533535224231
622720-52.1224422313112221
612620-61.3222211212111111
602621-50.7111111101001101
592521-60.4001100100000100
582522-50.2000000000000000
572422-60.1000000000000000
562423-50.0000000000000000
552424-40.0000000000000000
542324-50.0000000
532123-8No000000
522124-7No00
3-51No
Total:2.4%1.71.64.64.61.71.74.53.14.11.31.23.51.33.10.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)+0.2
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)+0.1
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.0+0.0*+0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.0
Vegas vs Arizona*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
87-107100
86398-5982
85399-4100
84389-5991
83379-696111
823710-595212
813711-490423
803611-587634
793511-6818660
783512-5731360800
773412-663169011000
763413-54919130170010
753313-63623161221020
743314-523241912721300
733214-61322222304250000
723215-56172143075090010
713115-621217626118014102000
703116-5061281815130192140000
693016-6037810161712253070010
683017-50137312183209701310200
672917-60141714614131301822510
662918-500203976131811965092000
652818-60010147291741510100155100
642819-50000140412771216118124100
632719-6000201682919316191141000
622720-5001002605156919201251000
612620-60000030288311202114720000
602621-500010371411202217931000
592521-600001401391823201362000
582522-500002001281622221683100
572422-6000100002613212318104100
562423-5000000151220242011410
552323-60000014112125211131
542324-50000151222272192
532224-6000015142629195
522225-500002719312912
512125-6001311283621
502126-50016204032
492026-6003133747
482027-500183358
471927-60042768
461928-5022078
451828-6011584
441829-501090
431729-60793
421730-5496
411630-6397
401631-5298
391531-6199
381532-5199
371432-6199
3-36100
Total:2221323132424242444444444444445