Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.7 to 57.2%
6 points   3 1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)-0.4
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +0.2
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)*-0.2
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)*+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Edmonton+4.8+4.7+3.5-0.6-1.0-5.8
+0.3+0.2*+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
+1.2+1.1+1.0*-0.2-0.4-1.4
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.8*+0.2*+0.1-0.6-0.9-0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
87-110In99.8%100570*
863810-4In99.4991334*
853710-5In98.81000600*
843711-4In97.69911929*
833611-5In96.998111,584*
823612-4In95.498112,291*
813512-5In91.995223,574*
803412-6In87.3924405,326*
793413-5In80.5896507,592*
783313-6In73.48497010,569*
773314-5In62.87712100014,494*
763214-6In50.26817141019,140*
753215-5In36.85821192024,810*
743115-6100.0%24.247262430031,328*
733116-5100.013.534303050038,832*
723016-6100.06.523313691046,515*
713017-599.82.414314013200055,437*
702917-699.60.67274219400063,593*
692918-598.70.132241258010071,819*
682818-697.20.01163731120300079,642*
672819-593.8No0103134171510085,320*
662719-688.2No0623342141020090,014*
652720-579.9No03163122815510093,314*
642620-668.9No11026171519920094,365*
632621-557.2No161911202115610053,234*
2520-753.0No151710212117710039,918*
622521-641.3No0312522182213410090,058*
612522-528.6No0172191223221130085,259*
602422-618.0No0040146192620820079,088*
592423-510.1No0020821124271861071,560*
582323-65.3No010515162827143064,059*
572324-52.6No0020292231249155,277*
562224-61.0No00101414283217447,291*
552225-50.4No000017223427839,113*
542125-60.2No000031432361432,098*
532126-50.1No0001825412425,484*
522026-60.0No001418423519,582*
512027-5OutNo00212404715,418*
501927-6OutNo017345811,540*
491928-5OutNo0428688,493*
481828-6OutNo00221776,000*
471829-5OutNo0116834,246*
461729-6OutNo0011882,774*
451730-5OutNo07931,949*
441630-6OutNo04951,237*
431631-5OutNo199851*
421531-6OutNo298564*
411532-5OutNo199301*
401432-6OutNo199197*
6-39OutNo100353*
Total:57.2%4.6%88151476666655541,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupFloridaTampa BayNew JerseyPhiladelphiaMontrealWashingtonCarolinaNY IslandersOttawaDetroitPittsburghBostonNY RangersColumbusBuffalo
110520-011.7%81452558537513568
97445-3NoYes
96446-2NoYes
95436-3No5050
94426-4NoYes
93416-528.6141414142914
92417-4No333333
91407-5No9918999927
90408-48.6311611116669311611
89409-35.01210105357355510785
88399-41.667261158786611566
87389-57.16488669106947758
863810-45.7758675759877594
853710-56.78710897877457754
843711-47.3778678676768565
833611-56.6876767877768665
823612-46.4776677777678676
813512-56.2777776876677675
803412-66.5876677776767776
793413-56.1876777776777665
783313-66.6876776777767665
773314-56.1886687766767666
763214-66.0886686767868666
753215-56.2996696667758557
743115-66.491055105558859557
733116-56.5111044105558949447
723016-66.31211441144499410447
713017-56.212124411333910310338
702917-66.0131333123331010310338
692918-56.2131333133331010311228
682818-66.1131333133231010210228
672819-56.0131333123231010210227
2920-35.7121333133231010210227
662719-65.6121233123239929227
2618-85.3111233123239928226
652720-55.0111133113238827216
642620-64.3993393227726214
632621-53.4773373225524113
622521-62.6553352223313112
612522-51.7332232222212111
602422-61.2222121111111111
592423-50.6111111111011000
582323-60.4001101000000000
572324-50.2000000000000000
562224-60.1000000000000000
552225-50.000000000000000
542226-40.0000000000000000
532126-50.0000000000
522127-4No000
6-51No
Total:3.6%6.96.92.42.56.72.42.22.25.25.31.95.31.71.73.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 -0.1
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton-1.1-1.1-0.8+0.2+0.2+1.3
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.1-0.0*-0.0*+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
88-110100
87389-5991
863810-4991
853710-59910
843711-498111
833611-597111
823612-495211
813512-592322
803412-68754400
793413-58186500
783313-67310907000
773314-56315120100000
763214-65018160140010
753215-53722211180020
743115-6242324222113000
733116-513212632622050000
723016-66172562654090010
713017-521122923880120020000
702917-61615121712130171140000
692918-5039139131812033700100
682818-6014123111941866012003000
672819-5029161681310110161151000
662719-6005031011611161174409200
652720-5003014112817514880145100
642620-6010180413971014117113100
632621-50100501611281731517931000
622521-600030290414791818104100
612522-50010160281131119191252000
602422-6000030310141119211583100
592423-50002017014101822191151000
582323-601004001381622211472100
572324-50002000261421231793100
562224-60001000251321241910410
552225-500000015122125201030
542125-600000151323272081
532126-5000016152629185
522026-60002820312811
512027-501312283620
501927-60016214032
491928-50003143944
481828-600183457
471829-50042868
461729-6022276
451730-511683
441630-601090
431631-50595
421531-60595
411532-5397
401432-6298
6-39100
Total:5353534352434242444333333322222