Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.9 to 59.7%
6 points   3 1-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)-0.4
*-0.1
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)-0.4
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)-0.2
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +0.2
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)*+0.1
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Edmonton+3.7+3.9+3.0-1.9-1.8-6.7
+0.2+0.3+0.2*-0.1*-0.1-0.4
+0.9+1.0+0.6-0.6-0.6-1.6
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.7*+0.1*+0.0-0.6-0.6-0.6
+0.1*+0.1*-0.0*-0.0*-0.1-0.1
Vegas vs Arizona-0.1-0.1*-0.1*+0.1*+0.0+0.1
Anaheim vs Minnesota+0.0*+0.1*+0.0*-0.0*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
90-110InYes100646*
89398-5In99.3%1000276*
88399-4In99.81000479*
87389-5In99.510000876*
863810-4In98.299101,470*
853710-5In98.299012,521*
843711-4In97.098113,920*
833611-5In95.097216,263*
823612-4In92.0962209,671*
813512-5In87.69343014,254*
803412-6In81.589650020,794*
793413-5In73.88587029,473*
783313-6In64.47811100040,911*
773314-5In52.57015141054,400*
763214-6In40.16019191071,236*
753215-5100.0%27.249232530091,611*
743115-6100.016.6372731500114,039*
733116-5100.08.42629368100139,259*
723016-699.93.5162841122000165,941*
713017-599.71.192643183000191,947*
702917-699.20.2421432560100216,985*
692918-598.10.02163931110200241,772*
682818-695.70.00113335161400260,561*
672819-591.5No0726362127100277,358*
662719-684.6No03183424512300286,368*
652720-575.0No0212292211186100290,212*
642620-662.9No01722161722123000288,214*
632621-549.3No031592222198100277,759*
622521-635.9No0294211825155100264,810*
612522-523.9No015117112424123100245,436*
602422-614.8No00201261928229200223,444*
592423-58.4No00107211242918610197,227*
582323-64.4No00004151729271430172,108*
572324-52.1No000202923322481146,560*
562224-60.9No001014142932163121,500*
552225-50.3No000018223526799,586*
542125-60.1No0000041533351379,185*
532126-50.0No00001927412261,597*
522026-60.0No0001420433246,853*
512027-50.0No000213414335,084*
501927-6OutNo018365525,498*
491928-5OutNo005306518,293*
481828-6OutNo03247312,994*
471829-5OutNo0119808,751*
461729-6OutNo0114855,834*
451730-5OutNo010893,712*
441630-6OutNo07932,358*
431631-5OutNo04961,537*
421632-4OutNo0397932*
411532-5OutNo199557*
401432-6OutNo0100326*
391433-5OutNo100170*
381333-6OutNo19998*
371334-5OutNo29856*
6-36OutNo100458*
Total:59.7%4.6%88151586776554434,874,180

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupMontrealTampa BayFloridaCarolinaPhiladelphiaWashingtonNew JerseyNY IslandersOttawaNY RangersBostonDetroitPittsburghBuffaloColumbus
110520-09.5%68776565367116115
97445-3No333333
96435-4NoYes
95436-3No5050
94426-4No2114771477777
93416-523.182388815238
92417-46.5633610663131013136
91407-57.8511538119281314363
90408-46.376512551367598425
89398-54.310457597125847574
88399-47.9966988776567664
87389-57.6767768887757677
863810-47.9777766786767756
853710-57.3777787776866656
843711-47.2867877776766766
833611-57.2867877886766655
823612-47.3876877786766655
813512-57.7877877785766755
803412-67.5878877776766655
793413-57.4878777776666655
783313-67.4988777776666655
773314-57.21099766676676555
763214-67.2111010666667576564
753215-57.0121111655557577464
743115-66.8131212555557487464
733116-56.9141313444448487363
723016-66.6151414444438388363
713017-56.5161515333338298262
702917-66.3171615333339288272
692918-56.0171615333339288261
682818-65.8171615333329288161
672819-55.3161514333338277151
2920-35.4161514333338277151
662719-64.9151412344437266151
652720-54.3131211343436255141
642620-63.611109333325144131
632621-52.8887333323123120
622521-62.0655233322112110
612522-51.3433222211111010
602422-60.8222111111000000
592423-50.4111111110000000
582323-60.2110000000000000
572324-50.1000000000000000
562224-60.0000000000000000
552225-50.0000000000000000
542125-60.00000000000000
532126-50.00000000000
522228-2No000000
512128-3No0
6-50No
Total:3.7%9.58.78.12.52.72.72.72.24.71.64.24.21.43.31.1
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 -0.1
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.8-0.8-0.6+0.4+0.4+1.4
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.1-0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
90-110100
89398-59900
88399-41000
87389-5100000
863810-498110
853710-598101
843711-497111
833611-595221
823612-4924220
813512-5885430
803412-6828605000
793413-57411807000
783313-66414110100000
773314-55318150140010
763214-64020181190010
753215-5272222123113000
743115-617212422722050000
733116-581825429440800100
723016-63132272777012002000
713017-5181792210110171130000
702917-6041111141216121220600100
692918-502610712192224401100200
682818-6002828185197901511400
672819-5016041381210140192207100
662719-60030279591822045012300
652720-5002003816175157110177100
642620-60010160311879171191341000
632621-50000301692719317201131000
622521-600020027031571020191031000
612522-5001005018941422201241000
602422-600000200381514222114620000
592423-5000101601513212216831000
582323-600000040015122023191141000
572324-5000020014101823201362000
562224-60001000139172322156200
552225-500000013817242415610
542125-6000001391825241451
532126-500001310212824112
522026-6000014132530216
512027-50001718313112
501927-600311273722
491928-50016203933
481828-6003143845
471829-50183457
461729-60042768
451730-5032375
441630-6011683
431631-5011188
421632-40991
411532-5595
401432-6298
391433-5298
381333-6397
371334-5298
361335-4100
351235-5694
6-34100
Total:5353535362526252554433322222211