"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.7 to 58.2%
4 points   2 0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)-0.5
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)-0.3
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +0.3
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.8*+0.1*-0.0*-0.5-0.7-0.6
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.6-0.5*-0.5*-0.1*+0.1+0.7
Vegas vs Arizona-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*+0.0*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
88-112InYes100503*
873910-5In98.5%9910274*
863810-6In99.81000500*
853811-5In98.39910760*
843711-6In98.199111,237*
833712-5In96.798111,905*
823612-6In94.998113,042*
813613-5In92.296224,315*
803513-6In87.4933306,306*
793514-5In80.9905508,827*
783414-6In73.18586011,862*
773415-5In62.6781210016,288*
763315-6In50.77015141020,939*
753316-5100.0%36.760201910026,858*
743216-6In23.94825243033,573*
733217-5100.013.536283050040,690*
723117-6100.06.2243136810049,015*
713118-599.82.21530401320057,786*
703018-699.60.67274219400065,428*
693019-598.80.132241257010072,925*
682919-697.10.01163731120300079,434*
672920-593.9No0103134171510085,653*
662820-688.4No062334213920089,307*
652821-580.0No03163122815510091,460*
642721-668.5No01102517151910200092,437*
632722-555.1No151810202116610090,575*
622622-641.0No0312522182214510088,039*
612623-528.1No0171191123221230082,941*
602523-617.6No0030136182621920076,799*
592524-510.2No0020821023271971069,600*
582424-65.2No0010415152727154061,755*
572425-52.5No00202821302510153,749*
562325-61.1No00100313273219445,738*
552326-50.3No000016203429937,924*
542226-60.2No0000031230371730,995*
532227-50.1No0001723422724,962*
522127-60.0No000317413919,667*
512128-50.0No00110395015,131*
502028-6OutNo016336111,275*
492029-5OutNo0326708,377*
481929-6OutNo0120796,111*
471930-5OutNo114854,343*
461830-6OutNo010902,979*
451831-5OutNo07931,965*
441731-6OutNo05951,350*
431732-5OutNo298843*
421632-6OutNo199528*
411633-5OutNo199335*
401533-6OutNo298221*
391534-5OutNo100126*
381434-6OutNo29866*
4-37OutNo100218*
Total:58.2%5.1%98151476666555541,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupFloridaNew JerseyPhiladelphiaMontrealTorontoWashingtonCarolinaNY IslandersOttawaDetroitPittsburghBostonNY RangersColumbusBuffalo
112540-06.3%213859104119278554
96446-4No333333
94437-4NoYes
93438-3No171717171717
92428-4No99189181899
91418-5No610133331613331366
90419-45.674949611764114774
89409-53.988841172549861354
884010-47.85677679105689655
873910-56.67786108775675484
863810-66.0697585779486755
853811-57.1698767885684775
843711-66.2788667786585776
833712-55.9787677896675766
823612-65.9677678866586766
813613-56.6677767876686875
803513-66.3678677776576766
793514-56.0677677876676775
783414-66.2777777877676766
773415-56.1777886767667766
763315-66.5866886667767666
753316-56.2966996668768556
743216-66.310559105558858557
733217-56.1114510104549849447
723117-66.31244111144499410338
713118-56.312441212333109310338
703018-66.3133313133331010311338
693019-56.0133313133331110211228
682919-66.1133313133331010211228
2818-85.9143313133231010210227
672920-55.8133312133231010210227
3021-35.6133313133231010210227
662820-65.7123312123239929216
2719-85.7123312123239928216
652821-55.0113311113238828216
642721-64.3933993237626214
632722-53.4733773225524113
622622-62.5532552223313112
612623-51.8322332222212111
602523-61.1211221111111111
592524-50.6111111111010000
582424-60.3001000000000000
572425-50.1000000000000000
562325-60.1000000000000000
552225-70.000000000000000
542327-40.000000000000000
532126-70.00000000000
522228-4No000
512229-3No0
4-50No
Total:3.6%7.02.52.56.96.92.52.22.35.45.22.05.41.81.64.0
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 -0.1
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.0
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.1
Vegas vs Arizona-0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.1*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
88-112100
873910-599010
863810-61000
853811-598110
843711-698111
833712-597211
823612-695311
813613-5924202
803513-6876330
793514-58195050
783414-67312806000
773415-563161209000
763315-65119150140010
753316-537231911800100
743216-6242423223113000
733217-51422253263250000
723117-661825627540800100
713118-5213219249701300200
703018-617151217131201711040000
693019-50391391417220320700100
682919-6014123121841876012003000
672920-501917158131011016215100
662820-600603911611162174309200
652821-50030141118175148801451000
642721-60010180412971014116114100
632722-50100501611281731517931000
622622-6003021004148918171041000
612623-500101601811311191913520000
602523-60000303101411192116831000
592524-50002017013101821191151000
582424-60001004001381622211472100
572425-5000200026142123179310
562325-60001000251221242011410
552326-5000015122126211130
542226-600000151223272092
532227-50000016152629195
522127-600002720312811
512128-5001312283621
502028-60016213932
492029-5003143845
481929-60183358
471930-50142768
461830-6022078
451831-5011585
441731-611090
431732-5595
421632-60397
411633-5298
401533-6298
391534-5298
381434-6298
36-37100
351235-7694
4-34100
Total:5453534352434242443333333222222