Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Winnipeg 3-4 (ot), playoff odds down 1.6 to 45.5%
3 points   1 1-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-1.0
-0.1
-0.3
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)-0.4
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)-0.4
*-0.1
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +0.3
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.7-0.7-0.6*+0.2*+0.3+0.9
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.8*+0.3*-0.1*-0.5-0.6-0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
86-109In99.7%100391*
853910-4In99.19900231*
843810-5In98.810000408*
833710-6In96.89811625*
823711-5In95.197211,085*
813712-4In91.295321,830*
803612-5In87.1934402,608*
793613-4In80.8887504,026*
783513-5In71.5839705,817*
773413-6In60.9761311008,169*
763414-5In49.86816151011,353*
753314-6In35.55622202015,388*
743315-5In23.34526253020,245*
733215-6100.0%12.833293261025,783*
723216-5100.05.82231371010032,867*
713116-699.81.912304115200040,022*
703117-599.30.662642205010047,859*
693017-698.40.132040269010056,378*
683018-596.40.01143632140300064,913*
672918-692.8No092935191610072,162*
662919-586.1No0521342241130079,649*
652819-677.0No03142922916610085,460*
642820-565.0No182317162111300089,911*
632720-651.1No041692022187100092,268*
622721-537.2No0210421182415510093,326*
612621-624.8No01611711242412410092,199*
602622-515.5No00301251727221020087,805*
592522-68.5No0010721023282071083,926*
582523-54.3No000414152828164078,256*
572423-62.0No000201821312610170,554*
562424-50.8No0100312273319462,397*
552324-60.3No000016203429954,355*
542325-50.1No000031231381646,587*
532225-60.0No0001724422638,874*
522226-50.0No000317423831,714*
512126-60.0No000111394925,056*
502127-5OutNo016336019,908*
492027-6OutNo04276915,184*
482028-5OutNo02217711,328*
471928-6OutNo0115848,240*
461929-5OutNo010896,017*
451829-6OutNo08924,380*
441830-5OutNo05952,899*
431730-6OutNo3971,966*
421731-5OutNo2981,291*
411631-6OutNo298816*
401632-5OutNo0100515*
391532-6OutNo0100307*
381533-5OutNo298192*
3-37OutNo100396*
Total:45.5%2.6%56111266677777771,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupFloridaTampa BayNew JerseyPhiladelphiaMontrealTorontoWashingtonCarolinaNY IslandersDetroitPittsburghBostonNY RangersColumbusBuffalo
109530-08.6%129432457510513669
92437-3No5050
91427-4No255025
90428-39.1992791827
89418-418.81313613136661313
88419-38.81831269369151236
87409-44.41246466711336104133
864010-33.9867957795979345
853910-47.4774697786773876
843810-57.6849677955667667
833710-65.0767656758778875
823711-55.3577877788767576
813712-47.0777767677687675
803612-56.5678867786766666
793613-46.3767777686777775
783513-56.7877677677767666
773413-66.3877678676777666
763414-56.1886688666768566
753314-66.4996589555759556
743315-56.0101055910555859456
733215-66.4101144910454849447
723216-56.31111441111444949347
713116-66.3121333111233310310338
703117-56.3131333111233310310237
693017-66.2131333121233310210228
2916-86.0131333121233310210227
683018-56.0131333121232310210227
3119-36.1131333121232310210227
672918-65.912123311123231029227
2817-85.51212331212323929226
662919-55.51111331011323928216
3020-35.31111331011323928226
652819-64.8101033109323827215
2718-85.01093399323727215
642820-54.1883388323625214
2921-33.9883378323625114
632720-63.1663366322424113
622721-52.3442244222312112
612621-61.5322222222211111
602622-51.0111111111111110
592522-60.5111111111000000
582523-50.3000000000000000
572423-60.2000000000000000
562424-50.1000000000000000
552324-60.0000000000000000
542325-50.00000000000000
532326-4No00000000
522226-5No00
512126-6No00
3-50No
Total:2.9%5.55.42.02.05.05.21.91.71.84.11.54.01.31.32.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+0.2
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 -0.1
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.1+0.1*+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.1*-0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1
St. Louis vs San Jose*-0.0+0.1-0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
87-109100
864010-3991
853910-49900
843810-599100
833710-697111
823711-595221
813712-491432
803612-5875440
793613-4818750
783513-5721290700
773413-66115120110000
763414-55018160140010
753314-63521211190020
743315-52322252231130
733215-613202632732060010
723216-561625627550900100
713116-621021923990140020000
703117-516141117121401811500100
693017-60281291318220330800100
683018-5014103101941967013003000
672918-601816157121012017216100
662919-50050291051016218440113000
652819-6002014101716514890156100
642820-50101703118710151181241000
632720-600004016102717315191141000
622721-5000202804137818191141000
612621-60010050171031119201362000
602622-5000030390310192117931000
592522-6000101601391722191262000
582523-500004001271522221683100
572423-6000020002613212318104100
562424-5001000151220242011410
552324-600000014112126211130
542325-500000141222282192
532225-6000015142629195
522226-500002719322912
512126-60000311273721
502127-50016204033
492027-6003143845
482028-500183357
471928-60042768
461929-5021978
451829-6011485
441830-501189
431730-60694
421731-50496
411631-6397
401632-5199
391532-60100
381533-5397
371534-4199
3-36100
Total:3232324242424242444444443333333