Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.7 to 57.2%
5 points   2 0-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)-0.5
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)-0.4
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +0.2
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)*+0.2
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 4 *+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Vancouver vs Montreal-5.6-0.7-1.0+3.9+4.6+4.6
-0.3*-0.1*+0.0+0.2+0.3+0.3
-1.4-0.4-0.3+1.0+1.0+1.2
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.7-0.7*-0.5*+0.0*+0.1+0.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
88-111InYes100433*
873910-4In99.6%1000240*
863810-5In98.0991400*
853811-4In98.69900712*
843711-5In98.199101,058*
833712-4In96.898111,768*
823612-5In94.397212,680*
813512-6In92.196224,032*
803513-5In87.193535,778*
793413-6In80.4896508,142*
783414-5In72.18497011,302*
773314-6In61.5761310015,535*
763315-5In49.06717141019,937*
753215-6In36.35822191026,178*
743216-5In23.84626253032,799*
733116-6100.0%12.934303150039,790*
723117-599.95.8223236810048,085*
713017-699.82.113314013200056,003*
703018-599.50.562842194000064,430*
692918-698.60.132241258010071,954*
682919-596.90.01163731120300079,610*
672819-693.6No0103034181510085,235*
662820-587.7No0623342141020089,722*
652720-678.9No315302191551092,334*
642721-567.8No19251715191020093,975*
632621-653.9No1518102121177100091,783*
622622-539.9No0211421182314510089,400*
612522-626.8No01611811232312310084,281*
602523-517.0No0030136182721920077,760*
592423-69.5No0010821023281971070,482*
582424-55.0No010415152827154062,327*
572324-62.2No00202821312510154,482*
562325-50.9No0100313283218446,510*
552225-60.4No00016203429938,668*
542226-50.1No0000031331371631,298*
532126-60.0No00001724422625,444*
522127-50.0No000317423719,752*
512027-6OutNo00111394915,298*
502028-5OutNo016336011,401*
491928-6OutNo00327698,167*
481929-5OutNo0221776,044*
471829-6OutNo0114854,200*
461830-5OutNo011892,907*
451730-6OutNo08921,983*
441731-5OutNo05951,298*
431631-6OutNo0397837*
421632-5OutNo298542*
411532-6OutNo199344*
401533-5OutNo298201*
391534-4OutNo199126*
5-38OutNo100269*
Total:57.2%4.8%88151476666655541,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupFloridaTampa BayNew JerseyPhiladelphiaTorontoWashingtonCarolinaNY IslandersOttawaDetroitPittsburghBostonNY RangersColumbusBuffalo
111530-06.3%136663455274159510
99432-8NoYes
96446-3NoYes
95436-4NoYes
94426-5NoYes
93427-411.1222211112211
92428-315.4815815815238
91418-48.048412124484812848
90408-52.3149551291225252927
89409-46.1610956102109756475
88399-53.1109545512231057995
873910-46.39956648756581048
863810-58.3956777846788795
853811-45.8795587865685867
843711-56.4767766776668777
833712-46.5777687776677765
823612-56.3777677775678667
813512-66.3776776776767666
803513-56.3776687776777666
793413-66.0776787766767666
783414-56.3876787766867666
773314-66.7886686666767666
763315-56.3896686667868666
753215-66.3985695667858557
743216-56.210105595557859557
733116-66.1111145104548949447
723117-56.31111441144489410347
713017-66.312123312343910310338
703018-56.213133312333910311238
692918-66.3131333133331010211228
682919-55.9131333133231010210228
672819-65.913133313323910210227
2718-86.0121333123231010210227
662820-55.5121233113239929226
2921-35.5121133113239929226
652720-64.9101033103238827215
642721-54.2993393226726214
632621-63.4773373225524113
622622-52.6553242223313112
612522-61.7332232222212111
602523-51.0221121111111111
592423-60.6111111111000000
582424-50.3000000000000000
572324-60.1000000000000000
562325-50.1000000000000000
552225-60.0000000000000000
542226-50.000000000000000
532126-6No00000
522228-3No00
5-51No
Total:3.6%6.96.92.52.56.72.42.22.25.05.41.95.31.81.73.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.1
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 -0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Nashville vs Carolina-0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Montreal+1.3+0.2+0.2-0.9-1.0-1.0
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0+0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs San Jose*+0.0+0.0-0.0*+0.1*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
88-111100
873910-41000
863810-59811
853811-499100
843711-598110
833712-497111
823612-594221
813512-692422
803513-587553
793413-680860500
783414-57212907000
773314-6621513010000
763315-54918170140010
753215-63622211180010
743216-524222522311300
733116-61321273263250000
723117-561726626550800100
713017-621122923980130020000
703018-516151216121301711400000
692918-60391381318219330700100
682919-5014123111941876012003000
672819-601916158121011016215100
662820-5005029115111621744010200
652720-603014111817514890146100
642721-5010180312971014116114100
632621-6010050161128174141710310000
622622-50002002904148817181141000
612522-60010060171131118201362000
602523-50000300310131018211693100
592423-60000101701391722191262000
582424-5001004001271521221583100
572324-6000020002613212318104100
562325-5001000151220242011410
552225-6000015112125221130
542226-500000151222282192
532126-6000015142529195
522127-500002719312912
512027-601311273721
502028-50016213933
491928-6002143945
481929-50183258
471829-60042769
461830-5022276
451730-6011584
441731-500990
431631-60693
421632-5595
411532-6496
401533-5298
391534-4298
381434-5100
371334-6397
5-36100
Total:5353534342434242444333333322222