Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.5 to 69.9%
5 points   2 0-1

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)-0.3
*-0.1
-0.1
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)-0.2
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)-0.2
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +0.2
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Vancouver vs Montreal-5.0-0.5-0.7+3.6+4.1+4.2
-0.5*-0.0*-0.1+0.3+0.4+0.4
-2.1-0.5-0.6+1.5+1.8+1.9
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.5-0.6*-0.2*+0.2*+0.1+0.9
-0.0*-0.1*-0.0*+0.2*-0.0+0.1
Vegas vs Arizona-0.1-0.1*-0.1*-0.1*+0.0+0.2
Anaheim vs Minnesota+0.1*-0.0*+0.0*+0.0-0.2*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
91-111InYes100931*
90408-5In99.8%1000464*
89409-4In99.610000801*
88399-5In99.4100001,452*
873910-4In99.299002,447*
863810-5In98.899003,954*
853811-4In97.799116,229*
843711-5In96.498119,552*
833712-4In94.5972114,467*
823612-5In91.89532021,139*
813613-4In87.593430029,814*
803513-5In81.890650040,894*
793413-6In73.88587054,705*
783414-5In63.87911100071,885*
773314-6In52.27015141092,600*
763315-5In39.761201810114,610*
753215-6100.0%27.2502424200139,240*
743216-5100.016.2382830400164,559*
733116-6100.08.32730357100191,136*
723117-599.93.4173040111000216,755*
713017-699.81.092843173000238,758*
703018-599.30.2423432360100259,465*
692918-698.30.02184029100200274,257*
682919-596.10.001235341513000285,338*
672819-692.1No0727362027100289,074*
662820-585.5No04203423511300286,464*
652720-675.9No0213292111176100276,360*
642721-563.9No1723161721123000264,129*
632621-650.2No0416922221982000244,903*
622622-536.5No02104211824165100222,856*
612522-624.4No015117112424134100197,827*
602523-514.8No003012518272210200171,896*
592423-68.4No00107210242919710147,036*
582424-54.2No0004151628281540123,072*
572324-62.0No000202822312491100,403*
562325-50.8No00100414293217380,036*
552225-60.3No000017223527763,257*
542226-50.1No000031433351448,279*
532126-60.0No0001826422336,430*
522127-50.0No000420423326,872*
512027-60.0No000213414419,348*
502028-5OutNo018355613,515*
491928-6OutNo0430659,292*
481929-5OutNo0224746,205*
471829-6OutNo117824,131*
461830-5OutNo113862,636*
451730-6OutNo010901,702*
441731-5OutNo06931,086*
431631-6OutNo0694618*
421632-5OutNo298385*
411532-6OutNo298232*
401533-5OutNo199144*
5-39OutNo100540*
Total:69.9%8.0%1310191576655433214,874,180

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupTampa BayFloridaCarolinaPhiladelphiaWashingtonNew JerseyTorontoNY IslandersOttawaNY RangersBostonDetroitPittsburghBuffaloColumbus
111530-010.5%78747467341411594
102473-3NoYes
98444-5No5050
97456-2NoYes
96435-5No20402020
95447-212.561319136619666
94426-54.875521010107552121272
93427-410.14959591193658945
92428-39.0878868867499562
91418-48.8959775955867485
90408-59.99108877954586484
89409-49.9796787785787563
88399-59.4768876776787675
873910-49.0777876875678665
863810-510.0678676876677665
853811-410.0787777876777665
843711-59.2778777876677666
833712-49.7678777876777655
823612-59.7777777876776665
813613-49.6777777876766665
803513-59.5788777876676665
793413-69.2787777976677665
783414-59.5887667976676665
773314-69.3897666967677565
763315-59.29966661067577564
753215-69.0101065551157587564
743216-59.0121155551258487464
733116-68.8131244441348488373
723117-58.6141444441348398373
713017-68.4151433331439398272
703018-58.1161533331539298272
692918-67.8161533331539298271
682919-57.6161533331529288161
672819-67.0151433331439287161
662820-56.4141333331328277151
652720-65.6121134331127156141
642721-54.71093333925144131
632621-63.7873333724133121
622622-52.6653333522122110
612522-61.8432222311111010
602523-51.1221111211000000
592423-60.6111111110000000
582424-50.3100000000000000
572324-60.1000000000000000
562325-50.1000000000000000
552225-60.0000000000000000
542327-30.0000000000000
532126-60.000000000
522127-5No00
512128-4No0
5-50No
Total:5.7%9.89.33.03.23.23.29.52.75.92.15.45.11.84.21.6
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.1
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 -0.1
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)+0.1
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Montreal+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.8-0.9-1.0
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
91-111100
90408-51000
89409-410000
88399-599000
873910-499000
863810-599100
853811-498111
843711-596211
833712-495321
823612-59243020
813613-488643000
803513-58286050000
793413-67411807000
783414-56415110100000
773314-652181501300100
763315-540211911700100
753215-62722231221120000
743216-516222632622040000
733116-681825528430700100
723117-531323826770110010000
713017-61817102111110151130000
703018-504111213131611922600100
692918-60261261219221440900200
682919-50039291861879014113000
672819-6016051491110141182207100
662820-500402810591821845011300
652720-6002003916175148110167100
642721-5010160211979171181341000
632621-600004015102718316191131000
622622-50002002803147920191141000
612522-6001005018931321201251000
602523-50000300391513212115721000
592423-6000101601512202217941000
582424-50000040014111923191251000
572324-600002001391723211462000
562325-5000100138162323157200
552225-6000013816242416720
542226-5000001381725251551
532126-6000139192825123
522127-500014122431217
512027-60001617313213
502028-500210263823
491928-60016194034
481929-5003133945
471829-60183358
461830-5052768
451730-6022376
441731-521682
431631-601287
421632-5892
411532-6694
401533-5397
391534-4298
5-38100
Total:8574736362525242543322222111110