Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 50/50

Lost to Philadelphia 0-3, playoff odds down 7.3 to 33.6%
2 points   1 3-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Tuesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 -6.0
-0.4
-0.7
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)-0.5
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)-0.4
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)-0.3
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Win Stanley Cup100.0*Pres Trophy
Toronto vs Edmonton-0.6-0.8*-0.4*+0.4*-0.1+0.7
Vancouver vs Montreal+0.7*+0.3*+0.5-0.6-0.4-0.7

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresDivision seedConference seed (wildcard race)
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy1a1b23WCbWCa910111213141516Count
84-106In99.7%100353*
83389-5In96.09911200*
82379-6In96.29812367*
813710-5In92.395140627*
803711-4In87.0932501,014*
793611-5In80.7912601,468*
783612-4In73.68641012,389*
773512-5In62.580712103,714*
763412-6In50.3721017105,389*
753413-5In37.9621323207,677*
743313-6In25.05116294010,556*
733314-5100.0%14.039193471014,387*
723214-699.96.3272140111018,960*
713215-599.72.31721421730024,936*
703115-699.30.792042236010031,372*
693116-598.10.1416392910020038,677*
683016-695.70.0112343315041046,606*
673017-591.7No072735211710055,660*
662917-685.0No0420332531230063,572*
652918-575.6No02132925718610071,810*
642818-663.1No017231913221130078,967*
632819-549.0No041511182319710085,036*
622719-635.6No0210519192415510090,888*
612720-523.4No0152161224231241092,783*
602620-614.3No00301161827221030093,525*
592621-57.8No0010721023282082093,664*
582521-63.8No000314142628175189,762*
572522-51.9No00202821302411242,831*
2421-71.5No0101618292814342,619*
562422-60.7No0100311253222678,927*
552423-50.3No0000151832311271,846*
542323-60.1No0000021128382163,657*
532324-50.0No0001621413255,532*
522224-60.0No000314394447,293*
512225-50.0No00018355639,458*
502125-6OutNo0005286632,255*
492126-5OutNo003227525,963*
482026-6OutNo01168319,831*
472027-5OutNo00128815,103*
461927-6OutNo0089111,174*
451928-5OutNo06948,433*
441828-6OutNo03976,116*
431829-5OutNo02984,181*
421729-6OutNo1992,962*
411730-5OutNo1991,994*
401630-6OutNo01001,252*
391631-5OutNo0100724*
381531-6OutNo100541*
371532-5OutNo0100330*
2-36OutNo100555*
Total:33.6%1.2%33896567778910121,597,936

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

First Round Opponent What If

First round opponent based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season.   Explain

If finish:Chance will play in first round
TPWL-OTWin CupFloridaTampa BayNew JerseyPhiladelphiaMontrealTorontoWashingtonCarolinaNY IslandersOttawaDetroitPittsburghBostonNY RangersColumbus
106520-07.0%151622139112161312
93434-5NoYes
90426-4No5050
89416-533.36733
88417-416.71733171717
87407-55.93566612121212
86408-46.731313731013101017
85398-59.44131391592112119
84399-46.24415142294106111713
83389-56.03596421161155113914
82379-68.23391043131093272616
813710-55.73310104591111439289
803711-47.34499441010943112710
793611-56.845994389104493810
783612-46.1659954998558379
773512-56.7568865899558378
763412-66.7678776888657478
753413-56.2887689666766467
743313-66.2996599665775555
733314-56.11010451010555894644
723214-66.31212441212443993733
713215-56.3131333131333310103723
703115-66.3131333131333310102822
693116-56.1131333131332210102822
683016-66.0131333121232210102722
2915-86.1131333131232210102722
673017-55.61212331212323992722
3118-35.81112331212323992722
662917-65.41111331011323882622
3018-45.21111331111323882622
2816-85.41110331110323882622
652918-55.0993399323772522
3019-34.7993399323772522
642818-64.2883388322652421
2717-83.7773377322552411
632819-52.9663365222442311
2920-33.0662365222442311
622719-62.2442244222231211
612720-51.4222222211111111
602620-60.9111111111111111
592621-50.5111111111000000
582521-60.3000000000000000
572522-50.1000000000000000
562422-60.0000000000000000
552423-50.0000000000000000
542323-60.0000000000000000
532324-50.0000000000
522325-40.0000
512326-3No00
2-50No
Total:2.1%4.04.01.51.53.93.91.51.31.32.92.91.02.10.90.9
Points  (Full Screen)
Chance Will Make Playoffs  (Full Screen)

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday100.0*Lottery seed
Philadelphia 3 Buffalo 0 +1.3
Pittsburgh 5 Washington 4 (ot)+0.1
Detroit 3 Columbus 2 (ot)+0.1
Florida 5 Chicago 4 (ot)+0.0
Ottawa 3 Winnipeg 4 (ot)-0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday100.0*Lottery seed
Toronto vs Edmonton+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.1+0.0-0.1
Vancouver vs Montreal-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
St. Louis vs San Jose-0.0*+0.0*+0.0*+0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031
86-106100
85398-5982
84399-4100
83389-596311
82379-696112
813710-5923140
803711-4876250
793611-58111260
783612-4741241001
773512-562186012010
763412-65022100170010
753413-53824121221020
743313-62526151272140
733314-5142517330417010
723214-662017431730110010
713215-52141472611501610300
703115-6181091815902121600100
693116-504610101612123421000200
683016-601394131432184015004100
673017-501618117141290192107100
662917-600403797131312053012300
652918-500201392914416970167100
642818-600101604108811121191341000
632819-5000040159291531619114100
622719-600020280512792019114100
612720-5001005027931220201362000
602620-60000020391412192216831000
592621-5000010160141018221911520000
582521-6000003001381622211572100
572522-50002000271421231793100
562422-6001000251221242011410
552423-50000015122126211130
542323-600000151223272192
532324-500016152629185
522224-600002819312811
512225-50001312283621
502125-60016214032
492126-5003143944
482026-600183357
472027-50042768
461927-60022177
451928-5011683
441828-601090
431829-50793
421729-60595
411730-50397
401630-6298
391631-5199
381531-6199
371532-5199
2-36100
Total:1111222232324232444444444445556