"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/2100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Copa Libertadores100.0*Average seed
Santos Laguna vs Toluca-9.4-3.4+12.6
-14.7-4.0+18.4
-0.9-0.1+1.0
Monterrey vs León+4.3+1.2-5.4
+3.3+0.7-4.0
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Pumas UNAM vs Guadalajara-3.5+1.0+2.6
-4.4+1.3+3.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Puebla vs Morelia-1.3+0.5+0.9
-2.6+0.9+1.8
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Dorados vs Veracruz+0.5+0.2-0.7
+1.6+0.7-2.2
+0.1+0.0-0.1
América vs Chiapas-0.4+0.3+0.2
-1.2+0.9+0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Atlas vs Tigres UANL*+0.0+0.1-0.2
+0.2+0.3-0.5
+0.0+0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 10/10100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Copa Libertadores100.0*Average seed
Monterrey vs Puebla+0.9+0.4-1.3
+1.8+0.8-2.6
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Veracruz vs Santos Laguna-0.7+0.2+0.5
-2.2+0.7+1.5
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Tijuana vs América+0.4+0.1-0.5
+1.2+0.5-1.7
+0.1+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toluca finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceCopaChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores123456789101112131415161718Count
406-0-099.4%Yes9919,160
385-1-096.6100.0%973047,412
375-0-192.8100.0937050,755
364-2-086.699.887130112,501
354-1-176.399.0762310238,632
343-3-064.297.26433300140,345
4-0-260.796.1613540126,822
333-2-146.191.14645900447,698
323-1-226.976.3274921300476,653
2-4-031.281.331501720098,732
312-3-114.660.2154632710421,815
3-0-311.853.512423510100168,599
302-2-24.532.64284121500671,822
1-5-06.340.2634411630037,193
292-1-30.711.21113235174000476,237
1-4-11.215.3114373313200198,059
281-3-20.13.00317353012200420,694
2-0-40.01.90213313416400126,177
0-6-00.15.2052238268105,749
271-2-30.00.2003163231143000447,300
0-5-1No0.405213527102037,548
261-1-4No0.0002122932185100239,073
0-4-2No0.000417323014300099,506
250-3-3NoNo002112732206100140,661
1-0-5NoNo018233324920050,396
240-2-4NoNo0016203227123000110,857
230-1-5NoNo0031227311961047,521
220-0-6NoNo0016183128133009,227
Total:19.0%41.1%19221813107532110000005,457,144
Points
Chance Will Win Championship