How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 7/23 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed CSA 2 Vitoria 1 -0.1 -1.3 +7.7 -0.9 Nautico 1 Brusque 1 +0.1 *-0.1 Ponte Preta 2 Goias 1 +0.1 +0.8 Operario-PR 1 Coritiba 0 +0.4 Vasco da Gama 4 Guarani 1 +0.2 Confianca 0 Botafogo 1 -0.1 Vila Nova 0 Cruzeiro 0 -0.4 Londrina 1 Remo 0 +0.1 +0.6 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Avai vs Brasil-RS -0.1+0.1+0.0 -0.7-0.2+0.8 Avai vs Remo -0.1+0.1+0.0 -0.3-0.2+0.4 Botafogo vs CSA *+0.0+0.1-0.0 +0.3-0.2*-0.1 Sampaio Correa vs CRB *-0.0+0.1-0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 7/30 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed Vitoria vs Avai +0.1-0.1-0.1 +1.2-0.5-0.9 -9.3+2.5+7.7 +1.0-0.3-0.8 Goias vs Operario-PR -0.0+0.1*+0.0 Guarani vs Vila Nova -0.1*+0.0+0.0 -0.5-0.2+0.7 CRB vs Ponte Preta -0.1*+0.0+0.1 -0.5-0.3+0.7 Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama *+0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.4-0.2-0.2 Brusque vs Confianca -0.1*+0.0+0.0 -0.6-0.2+0.7 Brasil-RS vs Sampaio Correa +0.1*+0.0-0.1 +0.7-0.3-0.5 Brusque vs Coritiba *+0.0+0.1-0.0 +0.2*-0.0-0.2 Remo vs CSA +0.2-0.2*-0.1 Cruzeiro vs Londrina *+0.1-0.5+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Vitoria finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Serie A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie C Count 74 -84 Yes Yes 100 No 433 * 73 19 - 4 - 1 92.9 % Yes 93 7 No 14 * 72 19 - 3 - 2 96.4 Yes 96 4 No 28 * 71 19 - 2 - 3 83.3 Yes 83 17 No 66 * 70 18 - 4 - 2 78.9 Yes 79 20 1 No 142 * 69 18 - 3 - 3 77.8 Yes 78 20 2 No 225 * 68 18 - 2 - 4 59.2 Yes 59 35 6 0 No 422 * 67 17 - 4 - 3 53.1 Yes 53 40 6 1 No 762 * 66 17 - 3 - 4 42.9 Yes 43 42 13 2 No 1,189 * 65 16 - 5 - 3 32.4 99.8 % 32 45 19 3 0 No 2,032 * 64 16 - 4 - 4 20.7 98.9 21 42 28 8 1 0 No 3,159 * 63 16 - 3 - 5 12.8 96.8 13 36 34 14 3 0 No 4,899 * 62 15 - 5 - 4 6.9 92.2 7 27 37 22 7 1 0 No 7,516 * 61 15 - 4 - 5 3.0 81.8 3 16 32 30 14 4 1 0 No 11,137 * 60 15 - 3 - 6 0.9 67.0 1 8 25 33 22 9 2 0 0 No 15,588 * 59 14 - 5 - 5 0.3 46.1 0 3 14 28 30 17 6 1 0 0 No 21,907 * 58 14 - 4 - 6 0.0 27.0 0 1 7 19 30 26 13 4 1 0 No 29,562 * 57 13 - 6 - 5 0.0 11.3 0 0 2 9 23 30 23 10 3 0 0 No 39,716 * 56 13 - 5 - 6 No 3.5 0 0 3 12 24 29 20 8 2 0 0 No 51,412 * 55 13 - 4 - 7 No 0.7 0 0 1 4 13 26 29 19 7 1 0 0 No 65,261 * 54 12 - 6 - 6 No 0.1 0 0 1 5 15 27 28 17 6 1 0 0 No 81,390 * 53 12 - 5 - 7 No 0.0 0 0 1 6 16 28 27 16 5 1 0 0 No 98,242 * 52 12 - 4 - 8 No No 0 0 1 6 17 28 27 15 5 1 0 0 No 116,902 * 51 11 - 6 - 7 No No 0 0 1 7 19 29 26 14 4 1 0 No 134,700 * 50 11 - 5 - 8 No No 0 0 0 2 8 20 29 25 12 3 0 0 0.0 % 153,552 * 49 11 - 4 - 9 No No 0 0 2 9 22 30 24 10 2 0 0 0 0.3 169,886 * 48 10 - 6 - 8 No No 0 0 0 3 11 24 30 22 9 2 0 0 0 2.0 184,004 * 47 10 - 5 - 9 No No 0 0 1 4 13 26 30 19 6 1 0 0 7.7 194,254 * 46 9 - 7 - 8 No No 0 0 1 5 17 29 29 15 4 1 0 19.7 202,837 * 45 9 - 6 - 9 No No 0 0 0 2 8 21 31 25 11 2 0 38.3 204,407 * 44 9 - 5 - 10 No No 0 0 3 12 26 32 20 6 1 58.8 203,029 * 43 8 - 7 - 9 No No 0 0 1 5 18 32 29 13 2 76.2 196,915 * 42 8 - 6 - 10 No No 0 0 0 2 10 26 35 22 5 88.3 186,568 * 41 8 - 5 - 11 No No 0 0 1 4 18 35 32 10 94.9 171,933 * 40 7 - 7 - 10 No No 0 0 2 10 31 39 18 98.0 154,512 * 39 7 - 6 - 11 No No 0 0 1 6 23 43 28 99.4 135,341 * 38 7 - 5 - 12 No No 0 0 3 16 43 39 99.8 116,481 * 37 6 - 7 - 11 No No 0 0 1 10 39 51 100.0 97,545 * 36 6 - 6 - 12 No No 0 0 0 6 32 62 100.0 79,429 * 35 6 - 5 - 13 No No 0 0 3 26 71 100.0 63,443 * 34 5 - 7 - 12 No No 0 1 19 79 Yes 48,471 * 33 5 - 6 - 13 No No 0 1 14 86 Yes 36,258 * 32 5 - 5 - 14 No No 0 0 10 90 Yes 26,815 * 31 4 - 7 - 13 No No 0 6 94 Yes 19,077 * 30 4 - 6 - 14 No No 0 4 96 Yes 12,923 * 29 4 - 5 - 15 No No 0 2 98 Yes 8,609 * 28 3 - 7 - 14 No No 1 99 Yes 5,462 * 27 3 - 6 - 15 No No 1 99 Yes 3,386 * 26 3 - 5 - 16 No No 0 100 Yes 2,039 * 25 2 - 7 - 15 No No 0 100 Yes 1,156 * 12 -24 No No 100 Yes 1,684 * Total: 0.1 % 1.9 % 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 45.8 % 3,366,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship