"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Vitoria 3 Brusque 1 +0.4
+3.0
-7.8
+1.1
Nautico 3 Botafogo 1 -0.1
-0.1
Operario-PR 2 Cruzeiro 1 -0.1
-0.2
Guarani 1 Ponte Preta 0 -0.1
-0.1
Vila Nova 0 Coritiba 1 -0.1
Vasco da Gama 3 CRB 0 +0.3
CSA 1 Londrina 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Coritiba vs Vitoria-0.5-0.2+0.7
-3.3-1.0+4.7
+4.1+0.7-5.6
-0.8-0.2+1.1
Londrina vs Nautico+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.6-0.0-0.3
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.3+0.2-0.3
+0.4-0.1-0.3
Brusque vs Sampaio Correa-0.1+0.2+0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Remo vs Guarani+0.0+0.2-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Goias vs Avai-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.2-0.2-0.1
CRB vs Brasil-RS-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Confianca vs Vila Nova+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.2*+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/25100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Botafogo vs Vitoria-0.5-0.2+0.7
-3.3-1.0+4.7
+4.2+0.7-5.6
-0.8-0.2+1.1
Vitoria vs Londrina+0.6-0.3-0.5
+3.7-1.7-3.5
-5.2+1.5+5.5
+1.0-0.4-1.0
Nautico vs Remo-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.2-0.0+0.3
+0.0+0.0-0.1
CRB vs Nautico+0.2+0.1-0.2
-0.1+0.1-0.0
+0.3-0.0-0.2
Brusque vs Brasil-RS-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.3+0.2+0.2
-0.2-0.1+0.4
Operario-PR vs Confianca-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.3+0.2+0.3
-0.3-0.1+0.4
Operario-PR vs Vila Nova-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.3+0.2+0.2
-0.2-0.1+0.3
Vasco da Gama vs Brusque+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Confianca vs Coritiba+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.3-0.1-0.2
Cruzeiro vs Guarani+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.3-0.1-0.2
Vila Nova vs Goias+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Remo vs Sampaio Correa+0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Guarani vs Coritiba-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*-0.0
Goias vs Vasco da Gama-0.1+0.2*-0.0
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Sampaio Correa vs Botafogo-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Avai vs CRB+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Londrina vs Avai+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.2-0.0
Brasil-RS vs Ponte Preta-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.0-0.2+0.1
Ponte Preta vs CSA+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.2+0.0
CSA vs Cruzeiro-0.1+0.1+0.0
+0.0-0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Vitoria finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
89-105YesYes100No124,620*
8826-4-399.4%Yes991No340*
8726-3-499.9Yes1000No676*
8625-5-399.2Yes991No1,327*
8525-4-498.9Yes991No2,569*
8424-6-398.5Yes991No4,655*
8324-5-497.9Yes982No8,478*
8224-4-596.8Yes973No14,784*
8123-6-495.3Yes9550No25,566*
8023-5-593.9Yes9460No42,721*
7923-4-692.1Yes9280No70,442*
7822-6-589.4Yes89100No114,035*
7722-5-686.4Yes861300No181,052*
7621-7-582.6Yes831700No280,869*
7521-6-677.9Yes782110No426,842*
7421-5-772.6Yes732610No637,374*
7320-7-666.4100.0%6631200No932,410*
7220-6-759.5100.05936400No1,343,626*
7120-5-851.9100.052416000No1,894,952*
7019-7-743.8100.0444610100No2,629,882*
6919-6-835.699.93648142000No3,583,066*
6818-8-727.599.82849203000No4,799,868*
6718-7-820.199.420472761000No6,313,967*
6618-6-913.798.5144233101000No8,180,104*
6517-8-88.596.593537163000No10,393,752*
6417-7-94.892.6527382361000No12,999,041*
6317-6-102.485.52183630122000No15,988,558*
6216-8-91.074.311129341961000No19,337,377*
6116-7-100.359.1052033271130000No22,987,535*
6016-6-110.141.5021227311971000No26,904,090*
5915-8-100.024.80161830271341000No30,951,609*
5815-7-110.012.000210243022920000No35,016,255*
5715-6-120.04.5001414272918610000No38,970,943*
5614-8-110.01.20001618282614510000No42,649,456*
5514-7-12No0.20002921292412310000No45,930,115*
5413-9-11No0.00000311232922102000000.0%48,621,658*
5313-8-12No0.0000141325291982000000.050,634,729*
5213-7-13No0.0000015152628176100000.051,849,860*
5112-9-12No0.0000016172727155100000.052,201,223*
5012-8-13NoNo00002719282513410000.151,689,943*
4912-7-14NoNo00002921292411300000.450,301,681*
4811-9-13NoNo00000311242921920002.248,131,467*
4711-8-14NoNo0000141426291861007.445,234,153*
4611-7-15NoNo0000161829271440018.441,801,278*
4510-9-14NoNo00002922312492035.237,951,821*
4410-8-15NoNo00014132831185054.533,836,527*
4310-7-16NoNo00001720332711172.129,632,839*
429-9-15NoNo000312283419485.025,484,321*
419-8-16NoNo00016213628792.921,506,758*
409-7-17NoNo00031433371397.017,803,426*
398-9-16NoNo0001827422298.914,464,908*
388-8-17NoNo0000420443199.611,525,790*
378-7-18NoNo000214434299.98,996,733*
367-9-17NoNo00193852100.06,878,244*
357-8-18NoNo00053362100.05,160,193*
347-7-19NoNo0032771100.03,782,414*
336-9-18NoNo0012178100.02,711,480*
326-8-19NoNo0011584100.01,903,447*
316-7-20NoNo001188Yes1,302,324*
305-9-19NoNo00892Yes872,206*
295-8-20NoNo0595Yes570,087*
285-7-21NoNo0496Yes361,867*
274-9-20NoNo0298Yes224,071*
264-8-21NoNo298Yes135,335*
254-7-22NoNo199Yes78,925*
243-9-21NoNo0199Yes45,155*
233-8-22NoNo0100Yes24,615*
223-7-23NoNo0100Yes13,048*
213-6-24NoNo0100Yes6,660*
202-8-23NoNo0100Yes3,284*
18-19NoNo100Yes2,209*
172-5-26NoNo0100Yes334*
6-16NoNo100Yes124,511*
Total:1.2%12.1%1344556666666666654318.3%999,612,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship