How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 6/18 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed Vila Nova 0 Coritiba 1 -0.7 -4.0 +4.6 -0.9 Vitoria 3 Brusque 1 +0.1 +0.3 +0.4 Brasil-RS 2 Goias 1 +0.1 +0.3 +0.3 Operario-PR 2 Cruzeiro 1 -0.2 -0.1 Vasco da Gama 3 CRB 0 +0.1 +0.2 Guarani 1 Ponte Preta 0 -0.2 -0.1 Sampaio Correa 3 Confianca 1 -0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Confianca vs Vila Nova -0.3-0.2+0.5 -2.3-1.0+3.0 +6.0+1.3-7.1 -0.8-0.2+1.0 Londrina vs Nautico +0.1+0.0-0.1 +0.1+0.1-0.1 +0.6-0.1-0.4 Nautico vs Botafogo -0.1+0.1+0.1 *-0.0+0.1-0.1 -0.1-0.0+0.1 Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR +0.2+0.1-0.2 +0.6-0.1-0.3 Brusque vs Sampaio Correa -0.1+0.1+0.0 -0.1-0.0+0.2 Coritiba vs Vitoria -0.1+0.1+0.1 -0.1-0.1+0.2 Goias vs Avai -0.1+0.1+0.1 -0.1-0.1+0.3 Remo vs Guarani +0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.2-0.1-0.1 Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama +0.1+0.1-0.1 +0.3-0.2-0.2 CRB vs Brasil-RS -0.1+0.1+0.0 -0.1-0.2+0.3 CSA vs Londrina +0.1-0.3+0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 6/27 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed CRB vs Nautico +0.1+0.0-0.1 +0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.3-0.0-0.2 Avai vs CRB +0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.2-0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Vila Nova finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Serie A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie C Count 90 -104 Yes Yes 100 No 133,256 * 89 27 - 3 - 3 97.6 % Yes 98 2 No 42 * 87 -88 Yes Yes 100 No 236 * 86 26 - 3 - 4 99.7 Yes 100 0 No 347 * 85 25 - 5 - 3 99.7 Yes 100 0 No 704 * 84 25 - 4 - 4 99.5 Yes 100 0 No 1,286 * 83 25 - 3 - 5 99.1 Yes 99 1 No 2,470 * 82 24 - 5 - 4 98.9 Yes 99 1 No 4,364 * 81 24 - 4 - 5 98.2 Yes 98 2 0 No 8,140 * 80 23 - 6 - 4 97.3 Yes 97 3 0 No 14,232 * 79 23 - 5 - 5 95.9 Yes 96 4 0 No 24,593 * 78 23 - 4 - 6 94.5 Yes 94 5 0 No 41,409 * 77 22 - 6 - 5 92.4 Yes 92 8 0 No 67,961 * 76 22 - 5 - 6 89.8 Yes 90 10 0 0 No 109,946 * 75 21 - 7 - 5 86.1 Yes 86 13 0 0 No 174,129 * 74 21 - 6 - 6 82.0 Yes 82 17 1 0 No 270,671 * 73 21 - 5 - 7 76.8 Yes 77 22 1 0 No 413,095 * 72 20 - 7 - 6 70.5 100.0 % 70 27 2 0 0 No 617,625 * 71 20 - 6 - 7 63.3 100.0 63 32 4 0 0 No 906,762 * 70 20 - 5 - 8 55.1 100.0 55 38 7 0 0 No 1,307,581 * 69 19 - 7 - 7 46.3 100.0 46 42 11 1 0 0 No 1,853,397 * 68 19 - 6 - 8 37.2 99.9 37 45 16 2 0 0 0 No 2,580,617 * 67 19 - 5 - 9 28.2 99.6 28 45 22 4 0 0 0 No 3,532,508 * 66 18 - 7 - 8 20.0 98.9 20 43 28 8 1 0 0 0 No 4,747,748 * 65 18 - 6 - 9 13.0 97.3 13 37 34 13 2 0 0 0 No 6,270,629 * 64 17 - 8 - 8 7.7 93.9 8 30 37 20 5 1 0 0 0 No 8,149,508 * 63 17 - 7 - 9 4.0 87.5 4 21 36 27 10 2 0 0 0 0 No 10,406,958 * 62 17 - 6 - 10 1.8 77.0 2 13 30 32 17 5 1 0 0 0 No 13,084,830 * 61 16 - 8 - 9 0.6 62.1 1 7 22 33 25 10 2 0 0 0 0 No 16,153,804 * 60 16 - 7 - 10 0.2 44.3 0 3 13 28 30 18 6 1 0 0 0 No 19,634,451 * 59 16 - 6 - 11 0.0 26.8 0 1 6 19 30 26 13 4 1 0 0 0 0 No 23,467,159 * 58 15 - 8 - 10 0.0 13.1 0 0 2 11 24 30 21 9 2 0 0 0 0 No 27,593,481 * 57 15 - 7 - 11 0.0 4.9 0 0 1 4 15 27 28 17 6 1 0 0 0 No 31,894,831 * 56 15 - 6 - 12 0.0 1.3 0 0 0 1 6 18 29 26 14 4 1 0 0 0 0 No 36,270,200 * 55 14 - 8 - 11 No 0.3 0 0 0 2 9 21 29 24 11 3 1 0 0 0 0 No 40,584,324 * 54 14 - 7 - 12 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 3 11 23 29 22 9 2 0 0 0 0 No 44,655,467 * 53 13 - 9 - 11 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 4 13 25 29 19 8 2 0 0 0 0 0.0 % 48,336,832 * 52 13 - 8 - 12 No 0.0 0 0 0 1 5 15 26 28 17 6 1 0 0 0 0 0.0 51,429,549 * 51 13 - 7 - 13 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 6 17 27 27 15 5 1 0 0 0 0.0 53,843,479 * 50 12 - 9 - 12 No No 0 0 0 0 2 7 19 28 25 13 4 1 0 0 0 0.1 55,415,629 * 49 12 - 8 - 13 No No 0 0 0 0 2 9 21 29 24 11 3 0 0 0 0.4 56,100,998 * 48 12 - 7 - 14 No No 0 0 0 0 3 11 24 29 21 9 2 0 0 0 2.1 55,797,342 * 47 11 - 9 - 13 No No 0 0 0 1 4 14 27 29 18 6 1 0 0 7.1 54,585,658 * 46 11 - 8 - 14 No No 0 0 0 0 1 6 18 29 27 14 4 0 0 17.8 52,481,881 * 45 11 - 7 - 15 No No 0 0 0 0 2 9 23 31 23 9 2 0 34.1 49,576,613 * 44 10 - 9 - 14 No No 0 0 0 1 4 14 28 31 17 5 0 53.2 46,039,768 * 43 10 - 8 - 15 No No 0 0 0 0 1 7 21 33 27 10 1 70.8 41,968,121 * 42 10 - 7 - 16 No No 0 0 0 0 3 13 29 34 18 3 84.0 37,598,885 * 41 9 - 9 - 15 No No 0 0 0 0 1 7 22 36 27 7 92.3 33,059,925 * 40 9 - 8 - 16 No No 0 0 0 3 14 34 36 13 96.7 28,529,679 * 39 9 - 7 - 17 No No 0 0 0 1 8 28 42 20 98.7 24,171,633 * 38 8 - 9 - 16 No No 0 0 0 4 21 44 30 99.6 20,091,222 * 37 8 - 8 - 17 No No 0 0 0 2 15 43 40 99.9 16,369,575 * 36 8 - 7 - 18 No No 0 0 0 1 9 39 50 100.0 13,073,465 * 35 7 - 9 - 17 No No 0 0 0 6 34 60 100.0 10,235,101 * 34 7 - 8 - 18 No No 0 0 3 28 69 100.0 7,851,358 * 33 7 - 7 - 19 No No 0 0 2 22 76 100.0 5,884,786 * 32 6 - 9 - 18 No No 0 0 1 17 82 100.0 4,325,125 * 31 6 - 8 - 19 No No 0 0 12 87 Yes 3,103,015 * 30 6 - 7 - 20 No No 0 0 9 91 Yes 2,175,607 * 29 5 - 9 - 19 No No 0 0 6 94 Yes 1,491,246 * 28 5 - 8 - 20 No No 0 4 96 Yes 995,186 * 27 5 - 7 - 21 No No 0 3 97 Yes 647,242 * 26 4 - 9 - 20 No No 0 2 98 Yes 411,094 * 25 4 - 8 - 21 No No 0 1 99 Yes 252,586 * 24 4 - 7 - 22 No No 0 1 99 Yes 151,368 * 23 4 - 6 - 23 No No 0 100 Yes 88,799 * 22 3 - 8 - 22 No No 0 100 Yes 49,757 * 21 3 - 7 - 23 No No 0 100 Yes 27,002 * 20 3 - 6 - 24 No No 0 100 Yes 14,083 * 19 2 - 8 - 23 No No 0 100 Yes 7,090 * 5 -18 No No 100 Yes 139,580 * Total: 0.8 % 7.5 % 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 26.8 % 1,071,299,040

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship