"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 7/23100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Vasco da Gama 4 Guarani 1 +1.6
+6.8
-3.5
+1.1
Operario-PR 1 Coritiba 0 +0.2
+0.2
+0.1
Nautico 1 Brusque 1 +0.2
+0.2
Ponte Preta 2 Goias 1 +0.1
+0.5
+0.3
Confianca 0 Botafogo 1 -0.1
Vila Nova 0 Cruzeiro 0 +0.1
-0.2
Londrina 1 Remo 0 +0.2
+0.2
CSA 2 Vitoria 1 -0.2
-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Avai vs Brasil-RS-0.2+0.1+0.1
-0.6+0.2+0.5
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Avai vs Remo-0.2+0.1+0.1
-0.5+0.4+0.2
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Sampaio Correa vs CRB*+0.0+0.3-0.2
Botafogo vs CSA*+0.0+0.3-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 7/30100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama-1.9-0.8+2.4
-6.5-2.3+7.9
+2.2+0.3-2.4
-0.9-0.3+1.1
Coritiba vs Nautico+0.1+0.3-0.3
-0.2+0.4*-0.0
Brusque vs Coritiba+0.2+0.1-0.3
*+0.1+0.4-0.3
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Vitoria vs Avai+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.5+0.3-0.7
+0.2-0.1-0.1
CRB vs Ponte Preta-0.2*+0.1+0.1
-0.7+0.3+0.5
-0.2-0.1+0.2
Guarani vs Vila Nova-0.2*+0.1+0.1
-0.6+0.3+0.4
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Goias vs Operario-PR-0.1+0.1*+0.0
-0.2+0.4*-0.1
Brusque vs Confianca-0.1*+0.0+0.1
-0.6+0.2+0.4
-0.1*-0.1+0.2
Brasil-RS vs Sampaio Correa+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.4+0.3-0.5
+0.2*-0.1-0.1
Remo vs CSA*+0.0+0.3-0.2
Cruzeiro vs Londrina+0.1-0.2*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Vasco da Gama finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
81-94YesYes100No540*
8018-4-299.3%Yes991No136*
7918-3-3YesYes100No241*
7818-2-498.6Yes991No430*
7717-4-397.8Yes982No760*
7617-3-497.2Yes9730No1,241*
7516-5-396.5Yes9630No1,934*
7416-4-494.1Yes9460No3,228*
7316-3-591.6Yes9280No5,016*
7215-5-487.6Yes88120No7,518*
7115-4-582.8Yes831610No10,860*
7015-3-676.5Yes772220No15,705*
6914-5-569.8Yes702730No21,969*
6814-4-660.0100.0%6034600No29,777*
6713-6-549.7100.050401010No39,867*
6613-5-638.699.8394316200No51,783*
6513-4-727.999.52844235100No65,369*
6412-6-618.298.51841309100No81,394*
6312-5-710.895.711333516400No98,444*
6212-4-85.690.162436248100No117,199*
6111-6-72.379.52153231164100No135,259*
6011-5-80.863.617233324102000No153,455*
5911-4-90.244.2031328301861000No170,340*
5810-6-80.025.2016183027144100No184,260*
5710-5-90.010.9002922302310300No194,976*
569-7-80.03.400031225302082000No202,275*
559-6-90.00.7000141427281861000No205,583*
549-5-10No0.10015162728165100No202,898*
538-7-9No0.00016182926144100No196,171*
528-6-10No0.000027192926134100No184,995*
518-5-11NoNo00282130241230000.0%170,306*
507-7-10NoNo0029223023103000.0154,146*
497-6-11NoNo00031124302192000.2135,677*
487-5-12NoNo00141325291971001.5116,364*
476-7-11NoNo00151528291651006.297,289*
466-6-12NoNo00161830271330017.179,372*
456-5-13NoNo002922322392034.663,644*
445-7-12NoNo0013132831195155.748,745*
435-6-13NoNo001619322812274.536,697*
425-5-14NoNo00210273421587.126,636*
414-7-13NoNo0151835311094.619,055*
404-6-14NoNo021031391897.812,778*
394-5-15NoNo01622432899.48,545*
383-7-14NoNo0216414099.95,518*
373-6-15NoNo0019375399.93,385*
363-5-16NoNo063163Yes2,014*
352-7-15NoNo32771Yes1,183*
342-6-16NoNo11881Yes674*
332-5-17NoNo01387Yes360*
322-4-18NoNo793Yes157*
311-6-17NoNo892Yes78*
22-30NoNo100Yes474*
Total:5.0%26.5%577888777665543322105.2%3,366,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship