How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 7/23 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed Ponte Preta 2 Goias 1 +0.1 +0.7 -9.2 +0.9 Operario-PR 1 Coritiba 0 +0.3 Nautico 1 Brusque 1 +0.1 Vila Nova 0 Cruzeiro 0 -0.4 Londrina 1 Remo 0 +0.5 Confianca 0 Botafogo 1 -0.1 Vasco da Gama 4 Guarani 1 +0.2 CSA 2 Vitoria 1 -0.2 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Avai vs Brasil-RS -0.1*+0.0+0.0 -0.6-0.2+0.8 Avai vs Remo -0.1+0.1*+0.0 -0.3-0.2+0.4 Sampaio Correa vs CRB -0.0+0.1*-0.0 Botafogo vs CSA +0.2-0.3*-0.0 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 7/30 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed CRB vs Ponte Preta -0.1-0.1+0.1 -0.9-0.5+1.2 +7.8+2.6-9.4 -0.8-0.3+1.0 Vitoria vs Avai +0.1*+0.0-0.1 +0.8-0.3-0.6 Guarani vs Vila Nova -0.1+0.0+0.1 -0.4-0.2+0.6 Brusque vs Confianca -0.1*+0.0+0.1 -0.5-0.2+0.6 Brasil-RS vs Sampaio Correa +0.0*+0.0-0.1 +0.7-0.3-0.5 Brusque vs Coritiba +0.2*-0.0-0.2 Goias vs Operario-PR -0.1*-0.1+0.2 Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama +0.4-0.3-0.2 Cruzeiro vs Londrina +0.2-0.5+0.2 Remo vs CSA +0.3-0.3*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ponte Preta finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Serie A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie C Count 84 24 - 0 - 0 Yes Yes 100 No 418 77 21 - 2 - 1 66.7 % Yes 67 33 No 3 73 -76 Yes Yes 100 No 32 * 72 19 - 3 - 2 86.5 Yes 86 14 No 37 * 71 19 - 2 - 3 90.9 Yes 91 8 1 No 77 * 70 18 - 4 - 2 80.3 Yes 80 20 No 127 * 69 18 - 3 - 3 74.9 Yes 75 22 3 No 263 * 68 18 - 2 - 4 64.2 Yes 64 32 3 0 No 430 * 67 17 - 4 - 3 59.6 99.9 % 60 33 7 0 0 No 737 * 66 17 - 3 - 4 41.1 99.9 41 44 13 2 0 No 1,241 * 65 16 - 5 - 3 30.6 99.5 31 44 21 3 0 0 No 2,038 * 64 16 - 4 - 4 23.0 98.5 23 39 29 7 1 0 No 3,283 * 63 16 - 3 - 5 12.1 97.1 12 36 35 15 3 0 No 5,064 * 62 15 - 5 - 4 6.6 91.9 7 26 36 23 7 1 0 No 7,588 * 61 15 - 4 - 5 2.8 81.8 3 16 33 29 14 4 0 0 No 11,093 * 60 15 - 3 - 6 1.0 65.6 1 8 24 32 24 8 2 0 No 15,787 * 59 14 - 5 - 5 0.3 46.9 0 3 15 29 29 17 6 1 0 0 No 22,097 * 58 14 - 4 - 6 0.1 26.2 0 1 6 19 30 26 13 4 1 0 0 No 29,520 * 57 13 - 6 - 5 0.0 11.1 0 0 2 9 22 30 23 10 3 0 0 0 No 39,689 * 56 13 - 5 - 6 No 3.6 0 0 3 12 24 29 21 9 2 0 0 No 51,579 * 55 13 - 4 - 7 No 0.6 0 0 1 4 13 26 29 19 7 2 0 0 No 65,922 * 54 12 - 6 - 6 No 0.1 0 0 1 5 15 27 28 17 6 1 0 0 No 80,822 * 53 12 - 5 - 7 No 0.0 0 0 1 5 16 27 28 16 5 1 0 0 No 98,660 * 52 12 - 4 - 8 No No 0 0 1 6 17 28 27 15 5 1 0 0 No 117,337 * 51 11 - 6 - 7 No No 0 0 1 7 18 29 26 14 4 1 0 0 0.0 % 135,406 * 50 11 - 5 - 8 No No 0 0 2 8 20 30 25 12 3 0 0 0.0 153,331 * 49 11 - 4 - 9 No No 0 0 2 9 22 30 24 11 3 0 0 0.3 170,220 * 48 10 - 6 - 8 No No 0 0 3 11 24 30 22 9 2 0 0 0 2.1 184,240 * 47 10 - 5 - 9 No No 0 0 0 1 4 13 26 30 19 6 1 0 0 7.7 195,227 * 46 9 - 7 - 8 No No 0 0 1 5 16 29 29 15 4 1 0 19.9 201,822 * 45 9 - 6 - 9 No No 0 0 1 8 21 31 25 11 2 0 38.3 204,893 * 44 9 - 5 - 10 No No 0 0 0 3 12 26 32 20 6 1 59.0 202,324 * 43 8 - 7 - 9 No No 0 0 1 5 18 32 29 13 2 76.1 196,588 * 42 8 - 6 - 10 No No 0 0 2 10 26 35 22 5 88.2 185,159 * 41 8 - 5 - 11 No No 0 0 1 4 18 35 32 10 95.1 171,825 * 40 7 - 7 - 10 No No 0 0 2 10 30 40 18 98.1 154,729 * 39 7 - 6 - 11 No No 0 0 1 5 23 43 28 99.4 136,115 * 38 7 - 5 - 12 No No 0 0 2 15 42 40 99.8 115,942 * 37 6 - 7 - 11 No No 0 0 1 9 38 52 100.0 97,276 * 36 6 - 6 - 12 No No 0 0 5 32 62 100.0 79,028 * 35 6 - 5 - 13 No No 0 3 25 72 Yes 62,780 * 34 5 - 7 - 12 No No 0 1 18 80 Yes 48,617 * 33 5 - 6 - 13 No No 0 1 13 86 Yes 36,517 * 32 5 - 5 - 14 No No 0 9 91 Yes 26,872 * 31 4 - 7 - 13 No No 0 6 94 Yes 18,732 * 30 4 - 6 - 14 No No 0 3 97 Yes 12,997 * 29 4 - 5 - 15 No No 0 2 98 Yes 8,441 * 28 3 - 7 - 14 No No 2 98 Yes 5,534 * 27 3 - 6 - 15 No No 1 99 Yes 3,392 * 26 3 - 5 - 16 No No 0 100 Yes 2,077 * 25 3 - 4 - 17 No No 0 100 Yes 1,155 * 12 -24 No No 100 Yes 1,637 * Total: 0.2 % 1.9 % 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 45.8 % 3,366,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship