How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Flamengo 2 Bragantino 3 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Bragantino vs Palmeiras-1.5-0.5+2.2
-6.1-1.5+8.7
+2.0+0.3-2.7
-0.7-0.2+1.0
Palmeiras vs America-MG+1.5-0.8-1.6
+6.6-3.1-7.2
-2.5+0.8+3.0
+0.8-0.4-0.9
Bahia vs Athletico-PR+0.1+0.1-0.2
-0.2+0.3-0.0
+0.1-0.0-0.0
Athletico-PR vs Flamengo-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.0+0.3-0.2
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.4+0.3+0.4
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Athletico-PR vs Atletico-GO-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.0+0.3-0.2
Flamengo vs Fortaleza+0.1+0.1-0.2
-0.2+0.3-0.0
+0.1-0.0-0.0
Ceara vs Atletico-MG+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.2+0.3-0.3
+0.2-0.0-0.1
Fortaleza vs Fluminense-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.0+0.3-0.2
Gremio vs Flamengo+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.4+0.3-0.4
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Atletico-GO vs Fluminense-0.1+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Bahia vs Corinthians-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.3+0.3+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Gremio vs Santos+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Juventude vs Sport Recife+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Chapecoense vs Internacional+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Corinthians vs Sport Recife-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Santos vs Sao Paulo-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Internacional vs Ceara-0.1+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.0
Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba+0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.1-0.1+0.0
America-MG vs Juventude+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/26100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Libertadores100.0*Serie B100.0*Average seed
Palmeiras vs Bahia+1.8-0.7-1.5
+7.8-2.3-7.0
-2.5+0.6+2.4
+0.9-0.3-0.9
Internacional vs Palmeiras-1.4-0.7+1.8
-6.7-2.3+7.7
+2.5+0.5-2.6
-0.8-0.3+0.9
Fortaleza vs Santos-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.2+0.3+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Bragantino vs Cuiaba-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.3+0.3+0.2
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Fluminense vs Athletico-PR+0.1+0.2-0.2
-0.2+0.3*+0.0
Chapecoense vs Atletico-GO+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.3+0.3-0.4
+0.2-0.1-0.1
America-MG vs Fluminense+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.4+0.3-0.5
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Juventude vs Flamengo+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.3+0.3-0.4
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Atletico-MG vs Atletico-GO-0.1+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Sao Paulo vs Internacional+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Juventude vs Ceara+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Juventude vs Gremio-0.1+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Palmeiras finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleLibertadores1234567891011121314151617181920Serie BCount
90-109YesYes100No130,438*
8926-4-4100.0%Yes1000No3,282*
8825-6-3100.0Yes1000No5,916*
8725-5-499.9Yes1000No10,779*
8625-4-599.9Yes1000No18,452*
8524-6-499.8Yes1000No30,978*
8424-5-599.6Yes1000No52,178*
8324-4-699.4Yes9910No85,241*
8223-6-599.1Yes991No135,715*
8123-5-698.6Yes9910No214,025*
8022-7-597.9Yes9820No328,019*
7922-6-696.8Yes97300No493,229*
7822-5-795.4Yes9550No730,149*
7721-7-693.4Yes93700No1,059,948*
7621-6-790.6Yes91900No1,510,773*
7521-5-887.0Yes8712100No2,115,914*
7420-7-782.3Yes8217100No2,915,294*
7320-6-876.5Yes7722200No3,940,766*
7219-8-769.6Yes70273000No5,235,850*
7119-7-861.4Yes61336000No6,845,457*
7019-6-952.4100.0%523891000No8,794,047*
6918-8-842.8100.04342142000No11,107,069*
6818-7-933.2100.03343194000No13,796,283*
6718-6-1024.1100.024422671000No16,859,577*
6617-8-916.3100.01638311220000No20,269,379*
6517-7-1010.0100.01031351851000No23,967,667*
6416-9-95.599.86233525920000No27,879,584*
6316-8-102.799.431531311541000No31,907,807*
6216-7-111.198.119243323920000No35,932,651*
6115-9-100.494.8041630291541000No39,820,385*
6015-8-110.187.90292331231020000No43,405,856*
5915-7-120.075.60041428291761000No46,564,783*
5814-9-110.057.900172030261230000No49,151,062*
5714-8-120.037.7000311243021920000No51,050,217*
5614-7-130.019.80001415272917610000No52,166,650*
5513-9-12No8.0000171929261341000No52,449,490*
5413-8-13No2.40000292230231030000No51,865,520*
5313-7-14No0.500003122529208200000.0%50,439,553*
5212-9-13No0.100001515272817610000.048,270,093*
5112-8-14No0.000001718292614410000.045,414,579*
5012-7-15No0.000002921292411300000.042,023,709*
4911-9-14No0.00000312242921820000.238,233,886*
4811-8-15NoNo0001515272817610001.234,185,748*
4711-7-16NoNo0000171829261441004.530,050,401*
4610-9-15NoNo00002102330231020012.125,953,244*
4510-8-16NoNo000141427301861025.322,019,081*
449-10-15NoNo00017193027133042.618,347,238*
439-9-16NoNo0003112532217160.815,024,796*
429-8-17NoNo0001517313013276.312,057,345*
418-10-16NoNo000210263522587.49,505,763*
408-9-17NoNo000151935311094.07,353,558*
398-8-18NoNo00021231381697.55,580,954*
387-10-17NoNo0001725422599.04,146,218*
377-9-18NoNo000318433599.73,023,170*
367-8-19NoNo000212414699.92,152,436*
356-10-18NoNo00183656100.01,503,414*
346-9-19NoNo0043065100.01,026,362*
336-8-20NoNo0022474100.0685,549*
326-7-21NoNo0011881100.0446,405*
315-9-20NoNo011386Yes284,252*
305-8-21NoNo00990Yes176,751*
295-7-22NoNo0693Yes106,988*
284-9-21NoNo0496Yes62,787*
274-8-22NoNo0397Yes35,672*
264-7-23NoNo0298Yes19,982*
253-9-22NoNo199Yes10,914*
243-8-23NoNo0100Yes5,705*
233-7-24NoNo0100Yes2,970*
223-6-25NoNo0100Yes1,414*
212-8-24NoNo100Yes618*
202-7-25NoNo0100Yes271*
7-19NoNo100Yes127,184*
Total:4.5%38.2%566777777665544332117.0%1,021,129,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship