How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Nautico 3 Botafogo 1 +5.4
+8.3
-1.7
+0.9
Vitoria 3 Brusque 1 +0.4
*+0.1
Operario-PR 2 Cruzeiro 1 -0.3
-0.2
Guarani 1 Ponte Preta 0 -0.2
Vasco da Gama 3 CRB 0 *+0.1
*+0.1
Vila Nova 0 Coritiba 1 *-0.1
*-0.1
Sampaio Correa 3 Confianca 1 *-0.1
*-0.1
CSA 1 Londrina 0 *-0.1
*-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Londrina vs Nautico-4.8-1.8+5.9
-6.7-2.1+8.0
+1.1+0.1-1.1
-0.7-0.2+0.8
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR+0.4+0.3-0.5
+0.3+0.3-0.5
+0.1-0.0-0.0
Brusque vs Sampaio Correa-0.4+0.4+0.1
-0.2+0.3-0.0
Coritiba vs Vitoria-0.3+0.3+0.1
-0.2+0.3+0.0
Goias vs Avai-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.2+0.3+0.0
Remo vs Guarani+0.0+0.3-0.2
-0.0+0.3-0.2
Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.1+0.3-0.2
CRB vs Brasil-RS-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.2+0.3+0.0
Confianca vs Vila Nova*-0.0+0.1-0.1
-0.0+0.2-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/25100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
CRB vs Nautico-5.0-1.7+6.1
-6.9-2.0+8.2
+1.0+0.1-1.1
-0.7-0.2+0.8
Nautico vs Remo+6.0-1.8-4.9
+8.2-2.0-6.9
-1.1+0.1+1.0
+0.8-0.2-0.7
Brusque vs Brasil-RS-0.5+0.3+0.3
-0.3+0.3+0.1
Vasco da Gama vs Brusque+0.2+0.4-0.4
+0.0+0.3-0.2
Operario-PR vs Confianca-0.5+0.3+0.3
-0.4+0.3+0.2
Operario-PR vs Vila Nova-0.4+0.3+0.3
-0.3+0.3+0.1
Confianca vs Coritiba+0.2+0.2-0.3
+0.1+0.3-0.3
Cruzeiro vs Guarani+0.2+0.2-0.3
+0.1+0.3-0.3
Botafogo vs Vitoria-0.2+0.3+0.1
-0.2+0.3*-0.0
Vila Nova vs Goias+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.1+0.3-0.2
Guarani vs Coritiba-0.1+0.3-0.1
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Remo vs Sampaio Correa+0.0+0.3-0.2
-0.0+0.3-0.2
Goias vs Vasco da Gama-0.1+0.3-0.0
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Sampaio Correa vs Botafogo-0.1+0.3-0.1
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Avai vs CRB+0.0+0.2-0.1
-0.0+0.3-0.2
Vitoria vs Londrina-0.2+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.1
Londrina vs Avai+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.0+0.2-0.2
Ponte Preta vs CSA+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.1+0.2-0.2
Brasil-RS vs Ponte Preta-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.2+0.1
CSA vs Cruzeiro-0.1+0.1*-0.0
-0.1+0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Nautico finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
96-114YesYes100No47,767*
9525-5-399.8%Yes1000No653*
9425-4-4YesYes100No1,230*
9324-6-3100.0Yes1000No2,122*
9224-5-4100.0Yes1000No3,834*
9124-4-5100.0Yes1000No6,741*
9023-6-499.9Yes1000No11,500*
8923-5-5100.0Yes1000No19,374*
8823-4-6100.0Yes1000No31,752*
8722-6-599.9Yes1000No50,461*
8622-5-699.9Yes1000No78,942*
8521-7-599.9Yes1000No122,851*
8421-6-699.9Yes1000No185,356*
8321-5-799.9Yes1000No273,638*
8220-7-699.8Yes1000No398,377*
8120-6-799.8Yes10000No569,314*
8020-5-899.7Yes10000No798,254*
7919-7-799.5Yes9910No1,101,587*
7819-6-899.2Yes9910No1,492,539*
7718-8-798.8Yes9910No1,987,143*
7618-7-898.1Yes9820No2,598,183*
7518-6-997.2Yes97300No3,343,595*
7417-8-895.7Yes96400No4,228,218*
7317-7-993.7Yes94600No5,255,485*
7217-6-1090.8100.0%919000No6,427,118*
7116-8-986.9100.08713100No7,725,073*
7016-7-1081.7100.08217100No9,133,830*
6916-6-1175.1100.075232000No10,634,317*
6815-8-1066.9100.067294000No12,166,570*
6715-7-1157.3100.0573571000No13,689,231*
6615-6-1246.699.94740122000No15,160,947*
6514-8-1135.599.636431840000No16,515,701*
6414-7-1224.998.925422571000No17,680,806*
6313-9-1115.796.91637321330000No18,628,422*
6213-8-128.692.5929352061000No19,308,176*
6113-7-134.083.641933281330000No19,684,523*
6012-9-121.569.0110263221820000No19,727,636*
5912-8-130.449.40416292816510000No19,435,403*
5812-7-140.128.801720302512410000No18,831,306*
5711-9-130.012.70021023292210300000No17,938,476*
5611-8-140.03.9000312242920920000No16,794,624*
5511-7-150.00.80001413252819820000No15,456,451*
5410-9-14No0.10001514252818720000No13,971,099*
5310-8-15No0.000015142528187200000.0%12,412,058*
5210-7-16No0.000015142628187200000.010,821,499*
519-9-15NoNo0001514262818720000.09,274,865*
509-8-16NoNo0001515262818710000.27,798,903*
499-7-17NoNo0001515262717610001.36,437,359*
488-9-16NoNo000161728271551005.95,213,247*
478-8-17NoNo0000271929261340017.34,133,524*
468-7-18NoNo000029223024102036.03,216,416*
457-9-17NoNo00013122631206157.62,452,452*
447-8-18NoNo0001517312913276.11,830,129*
437-7-19NoNo00029253523688.51,339,201*
426-9-18NoNo00141634331295.3956,551*
416-8-19NoNo0002928402098.3670,098*
406-7-20NoNo001521433199.5458,327*
395-9-19NoNo00214414299.9306,039*
385-8-20NoNo0183754100.0199,444*
375-7-21NoNo0053065100.0126,110*
364-9-20NoNo032474Yes78,225*
354-8-21NoNo011781Yes46,828*
344-7-22NoNo011387Yes27,257*
333-9-21NoNo0891Yes15,429*
323-8-22NoNo0694Yes8,578*
313-7-23NoNo0496Yes4,513*
303-6-24NoNo298Yes2,297*
292-8-23NoNo199Yes1,159*
282-7-24NoNo199Yes549*
272-6-25NoNo199Yes240*
15-26NoNo100Yes47,358*
Total:23.4%56.8%231411876544332221111002.4%379,397,280

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship