How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Nautico 3 Botafogo 1 -0.3
Vitoria 3 Brusque 1 +0.3
+0.4
+0.2
Operario-PR 2 Cruzeiro 1 -0.1
-0.3
-0.1
Vasco da Gama 3 CRB 0 +0.1
+0.2
+0.1
Vila Nova 0 Coritiba 1 -0.1
Guarani 1 Ponte Preta 0 -0.3
Sampaio Correa 3 Confianca 1 -0.2
CSA 1 Londrina 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Goias vs Avai+1.3-0.6-1.2
+5.8-2.4-5.6
-3.0+0.8+3.2
+0.9-0.3-0.9
Londrina vs Nautico+0.5+0.2-0.4
+0.2+0.2-0.2
+0.3-0.0-0.2
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.5+0.3-0.5
+0.3-0.1-0.1
Brusque vs Sampaio Correa-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.3+0.0
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Coritiba vs Vitoria-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.2+0.3+0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.1
Remo vs Guarani+0.1+0.3-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
CRB vs Brasil-RS-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama+0.2+0.2-0.3
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Confianca vs Vila Nova+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/25100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Goias vs Vasco da Gama+1.4-0.6-1.2
+6.1-2.2-5.6
-3.0+0.7+3.0
+1.0-0.3-0.9
Vila Nova vs Goias-1.1-0.5+1.4
-5.2-2.0+6.2
+3.0+0.6-3.2
-0.9-0.3+1.0
Nautico vs Remo-0.4+0.3+0.5
-0.1+0.2-0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.2
CRB vs Nautico+0.4+0.2-0.4
-0.1+0.2-0.0
+0.2-0.0-0.1
Brusque vs Brasil-RS-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.4+0.3+0.3
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Operario-PR vs Confianca-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.4+0.3+0.4
-0.2-0.0+0.3
Operario-PR vs Vila Nova-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.4+0.3+0.3
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Vasco da Gama vs Brusque+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.3-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Confianca vs Coritiba+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.3+0.2-0.4
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Cruzeiro vs Guarani+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.2-0.4
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Guarani vs Coritiba-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Remo vs Sampaio Correa+0.1+0.3-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Botafogo vs Vitoria-0.2+0.3+0.1
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Sampaio Correa vs Botafogo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Avai vs CRB+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Vitoria vs Londrina-0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.1-0.1+0.1
Londrina vs Avai+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Ponte Preta vs CSA+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.1-0.1+0.0
Brasil-RS vs Ponte Preta-0.2+0.1+0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.1
CSA vs Cruzeiro-0.1+0.1+0.0
+0.0-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Goias finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
90-107YesYes100No214,398*
8926-3-499.9%Yes1000No2,800*
8825-5-399.8Yes1000No5,208*
8725-4-499.6Yes1000No9,805*
8624-6-399.4Yes991No17,651*
8524-5-499.1Yes991No30,454*
8424-4-598.8Yes991No52,571*
8323-6-498.3Yes982No88,449*
8223-5-597.4Yes9730No145,034*
8123-4-696.4Yes9640No233,870*
8022-6-595.1Yes9550No367,484*
7922-5-693.3Yes9370No568,823*
7821-7-591.1Yes91900No861,034*
7721-6-688.2Yes881200No1,278,040*
7621-5-784.7Yes851500No1,861,973*
7520-7-680.3Yes801910No2,662,220*
7420-6-775.2Yes752410No3,738,355*
7320-5-869.1100.0%6929200No5,151,809*
7219-7-762.2100.06234300No6,982,020*
7119-6-854.6100.055405000No9,284,530*
7018-8-746.5100.046449100No12,145,329*
6918-7-838.099.9384813100No15,589,830*
6818-6-929.699.83049193000No19,698,713*
6717-8-821.999.52248255000No24,434,743*
6617-7-915.098.815433191000No29,834,770*
6517-6-109.597.193736153000No35,800,435*
6416-8-95.493.5528382261000No42,252,350*
6316-7-102.787.03193628112000No49,022,237*
6216-6-111.176.411230331851000No55,945,802*
6115-8-100.461.7062234261020000No62,796,859*
6015-7-110.144.2021329311861000No69,334,684*
5914-9-100.027.001620312612300000No75,257,983*
5814-8-110.013.500211253021820000No80,384,107*
5714-7-120.05.2001515282817610000No84,396,280*
5613-9-110.01.50001719292613410000No87,159,356*
5513-8-12No0.300021022292311300000No88,540,953*
5413-7-13No0.0000131224292082000000.0%88,413,193*
5312-9-12No0.000014142628187200000.086,828,876*
5212-8-13No0.000016162727166100000.083,820,664*
5112-7-14No0.000002718282614510000.079,547,310*
5011-9-13NoNo00002820292412410000.074,213,835*
4911-8-14NoNo000031022292310300000.468,049,637*
4811-7-15NoNo0001412252920820001.961,284,975*
4710-9-14NoNo0000151527281761006.654,246,589*
4610-8-15NoNo0000171929261330017.047,143,216*
4510-7-16NoNo000021023312392033.240,261,533*
449-9-15NoNo00014142830174052.433,738,136*
439-8-16NoNo0001721332610170.327,754,888*
429-7-17NoNo0000313293418383.822,387,378*
418-9-16NoNo00017223627792.217,730,282*
408-8-17NoNo00031434361396.713,753,045*
398-7-18NoNo0001828422198.710,477,441*
387-9-17NoNo000421443099.67,805,880*
377-8-18NoNo000214434199.95,694,965*
367-7-19NoNo00193951100.04,068,329*
356-9-18NoNo00053361100.02,843,598*
346-8-19NoNo00032770100.01,940,454*
336-7-20NoNo0022177100.01,295,601*
325-9-19NoNo011683Yes846,025*
315-8-20NoNo001188Yes536,218*
305-7-21NoNo00892Yes331,830*
294-9-20NoNo0594Yes199,806*
284-8-21NoNo0496Yes116,987*
274-7-22NoNo0298Yes66,326*
263-9-21NoNo0298Yes36,861*
253-8-22NoNo0199Yes19,668*
243-7-23NoNo199Yes10,096*
233-6-24NoNo0100Yes5,084*
222-8-23NoNo0100Yes2,454*
212-7-24NoNo0100Yes1,095*
8-20NoNo100Yes212,446*
Total:3.4%23.6%367777776665544433218.7%1,701,835,680

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship