How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 7/23 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed Vila Nova 0 Cruzeiro 0 -0.1 -0.5 +2.3 -0.3 Nautico 1 Brusque 1 +0.1 Operario-PR 1 Coritiba 0 +0.3 Confianca 0 Botafogo 1 -0.1 Ponte Preta 2 Goias 1 +0.1 +0.8 Londrina 1 Remo 0 +0.5 Vasco da Gama 4 Guarani 1 +0.2 CSA 2 Vitoria 1 -0.2 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Avai vs Brasil-RS -0.1*+0.0+0.1 -0.6-0.3+0.8 Avai vs Remo -0.4-0.2+0.5 Botafogo vs CSA +0.3-0.3*-0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 7/30 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed Cruzeiro vs Londrina +0.1-0.1-0.1 +1.1-0.5-0.9 -10.0+2.3+8.5 +1.0-0.3-0.8 Vitoria vs Avai +0.1*+0.0-0.1 +0.8-0.4-0.6 Brusque vs Coritiba *-0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.2*-0.1-0.1 CRB vs Ponte Preta -0.1*+0.0+0.1 -0.6-0.3+0.8 Guarani vs Vila Nova -0.1+0.0+0.0 -0.5-0.2+0.6 Remo vs CSA *+0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.2-0.2*-0.1 Goias vs Operario-PR -0.0+0.1*-0.0 Brasil-RS vs Sampaio Correa +0.0*+0.0-0.1 +0.7-0.3-0.5 Brusque vs Confianca -0.1*+0.0+0.0 -0.5-0.4+0.7 Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama +0.3*-0.0-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Cruzeiro finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Serie A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie C Count 74 -84 Yes Yes 100 No 426 * 73 19 - 4 - 1 90.5 % Yes 90 10 No 21 * 72 19 - 3 - 2 90.2 Yes 90 10 No 41 * 71 19 - 2 - 3 88.6 Yes 89 11 No 79 * 70 18 - 4 - 2 83.6 Yes 84 14 2 1 No 128 * 69 18 - 3 - 3 75.5 Yes 76 23 2 No 245 * 68 18 - 2 - 4 64.8 Yes 65 30 4 1 No 403 * 67 17 - 4 - 3 56.9 Yes 57 35 7 1 No 807 * 66 17 - 3 - 4 46.3 99.7 % 46 40 11 2 0 0 No 1,308 * 65 16 - 5 - 3 33.8 99.5 34 42 20 4 0 0 No 1,982 * 64 16 - 4 - 4 22.7 98.8 23 41 26 8 1 0 No 3,202 * 63 16 - 3 - 5 13.8 97.2 14 36 33 14 2 0 0 No 5,100 * 62 15 - 5 - 4 6.7 91.6 7 26 36 22 7 1 0 0 No 7,355 * 61 15 - 4 - 5 3.1 82.1 3 17 32 30 14 4 1 0 No 10,920 * 60 15 - 3 - 6 1.0 66.1 1 8 24 32 23 9 2 0 0 No 15,744 * 59 14 - 5 - 5 0.3 46.3 0 4 14 28 29 18 6 1 0 0 No 21,770 * 58 14 - 4 - 6 0.0 26.1 0 1 6 19 30 26 13 4 1 0 No 29,837 * 57 13 - 6 - 5 0.0 11.0 0 0 2 9 22 30 23 11 3 0 0 0 No 39,570 * 56 13 - 5 - 6 No 3.2 0 0 3 11 24 30 20 9 2 0 0 No 51,623 * 55 13 - 4 - 7 No 0.7 0 1 4 14 25 29 19 7 2 0 0 No 65,610 * 54 12 - 6 - 6 No 0.1 0 0 1 5 15 26 28 17 6 1 0 0 No 80,719 * 53 12 - 5 - 7 No 0.0 0 0 1 5 16 27 28 16 5 1 0 0 No 97,689 * 52 12 - 4 - 8 No No 0 0 1 6 17 28 27 15 5 1 0 No 116,240 * 51 11 - 6 - 7 No No 0 0 1 7 18 29 26 14 4 1 0 0 0.0 % 135,116 * 50 11 - 5 - 8 No No 0 0 2 8 20 29 25 12 3 0 0 0 0.0 153,410 * 49 11 - 4 - 9 No No 0 0 0 2 9 21 30 24 11 3 0 0 0.4 170,449 * 48 10 - 6 - 8 No No 0 0 0 3 10 24 30 22 9 2 0 0 2.0 184,074 * 47 10 - 5 - 9 No No 0 0 1 4 13 26 30 19 7 1 0 0 7.7 195,295 * 46 9 - 7 - 8 No No 0 0 1 5 16 29 29 15 4 1 0 20.2 202,374 * 45 9 - 6 - 9 No No 0 0 0 2 8 21 31 26 11 2 0 38.7 204,756 * 44 9 - 5 - 10 No No 0 0 0 3 11 26 32 20 6 1 59.2 203,515 * 43 8 - 7 - 9 No No 0 0 1 5 18 32 30 13 2 76.6 195,730 * 42 8 - 6 - 10 No No 0 0 2 10 26 35 22 5 88.5 185,960 * 41 8 - 5 - 11 No No 0 0 1 4 18 35 32 10 95.0 171,116 * 40 7 - 7 - 10 No No 0 0 2 10 30 40 18 98.2 154,410 * 39 7 - 6 - 11 No No 0 1 5 23 43 29 99.4 136,408 * 38 7 - 5 - 12 No No 0 0 2 15 42 40 99.8 116,588 * 37 6 - 7 - 11 No No 0 0 1 9 38 51 100.0 97,571 * 36 6 - 6 - 12 No No 0 0 5 32 62 100.0 79,643 * 35 6 - 5 - 13 No No 0 3 25 72 Yes 63,212 * 34 5 - 7 - 12 No No 0 1 19 80 Yes 48,801 * 33 5 - 6 - 13 No No 0 1 13 86 Yes 36,578 * 32 5 - 5 - 14 No No 0 0 9 91 Yes 26,721 * 31 4 - 7 - 13 No No 0 6 94 Yes 18,815 * 30 4 - 6 - 14 No No 0 4 96 Yes 12,955 * 29 4 - 5 - 15 No No 2 98 Yes 8,522 * 28 3 - 7 - 14 No No 1 99 Yes 5,570 * 27 3 - 6 - 15 No No 1 99 Yes 3,464 * 26 3 - 5 - 16 No No 0 100 Yes 1,926 * 25 3 - 4 - 17 No No 0 100 Yes 1,189 * 24 2 - 6 - 16 No No 0 100 Yes 655 * 23 2 - 5 - 17 No No 0 100 Yes 314 * 12 -22 No No 100 Yes 764 * Total: 0.2 % 1.9 % 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 46.0 % 3,366,720

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship