"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Vila Nova 0 Coritiba 1 +1.1
+5.3
-4.8
+1.1
Nautico 3 Botafogo 1 -0.4
Vitoria 3 Brusque 1 +0.2
+0.2
+0.4
Operario-PR 2 Cruzeiro 1 -0.1
-0.2
-0.1
Guarani 1 Ponte Preta 0 -0.2
-0.1
Vasco da Gama 3 CRB 0 +0.1
+0.2
Sampaio Correa 3 Confianca 1 -0.1
CSA 1 Londrina 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Coritiba vs Vitoria+1.6-0.7-1.5
+6.2-2.4-6.0
-2.7+0.7+2.8
+0.9-0.3-0.9
Londrina vs Nautico+0.6+0.3-0.5
+0.2+0.2-0.2
+0.3-0.0-0.2
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.6+0.3-0.5
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Brusque vs Sampaio Correa-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.4+0.0
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Goias vs Avai-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.3+0.3+0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.1
Remo vs Guarani+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.3-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama+0.2+0.2-0.3
+0.1-0.1-0.1
CRB vs Brasil-RS-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Confianca vs Vila Nova+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/25100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Guarani vs Coritiba-1.4-0.6+1.8
-5.6-1.7+7.2
+2.3+0.4-2.8
-0.8-0.2+1.0
Confianca vs Coritiba-1.4-0.7+1.6
-5.7-2.3+6.3
+2.8+0.6-2.8
-0.9-0.3+0.9
Nautico vs Remo-0.5+0.3+0.6
-0.1+0.2-0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.2
CRB vs Nautico+0.5+0.3-0.5
-0.1+0.2-0.0
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Brusque vs Brasil-RS-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.4+0.3+0.4
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Operario-PR vs Confianca-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.5+0.3+0.4
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Vasco da Gama vs Brusque+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.1+0.3-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Operario-PR vs Vila Nova-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.4+0.3+0.3
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Cruzeiro vs Guarani+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.3+0.2-0.4
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Vila Nova vs Goias+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.3-0.3
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Botafogo vs Vitoria-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.2+0.3+0.1
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Remo vs Sampaio Correa+0.1+0.3-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Sampaio Correa vs Botafogo-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Goias vs Vasco da Gama-0.0+0.1+0.0
-0.2+0.3*-0.0
Avai vs CRB+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Vitoria vs Londrina-0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Londrina vs Avai+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Ponte Preta vs CSA+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.1-0.1+0.0
Brasil-RS vs Ponte Preta-0.2+0.1+0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.1
CSA vs Cruzeiro-0.1+0.1+0.0
+0.0-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Coritiba finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
93-109YesYes100No142,120*
9227-4-399.8%Yes1000No620*
9127-3-499.8Yes1000No1,102*
9026-5-3100.0Yes1000No2,208*
8926-4-499.9Yes1000No3,901*
8825-6-399.7Yes1000No7,215*
8725-5-499.6Yes1000No12,628*
8625-4-599.4Yes991No22,449*
8524-6-499.2Yes991No37,844*
8424-5-598.8Yes991No62,493*
8324-4-698.3Yes9820No101,739*
8223-6-597.5Yes9730No161,799*
8123-5-696.5Yes9640No253,138*
8022-7-595.1Yes9550No387,097*
7922-6-693.4Yes93700No581,262*
7822-5-791.1Yes91900No858,659*
7721-7-688.2Yes881200No1,244,499*
7621-6-784.7Yes851500No1,768,488*
7521-5-880.5Yes801910No2,470,429*
7420-7-775.3Yes752410No3,390,274*
7320-6-869.3100.0%6929200No4,571,290*
7219-8-762.6100.06334300No6,062,574*
7119-7-855.1100.055395000No7,898,896*
7019-6-946.9100.047448100No10,122,459*
6918-8-838.6100.03948131000No12,754,154*
6818-7-930.399.93049182000No15,814,518*
6718-6-1022.499.62248245000No19,266,748*
6617-8-915.598.916443181000No23,106,739*
6517-7-109.997.31037361420000No27,263,876*
6417-6-115.794.06293821510000No31,633,239*
6316-8-102.987.932037281020000No36,122,148*
6216-7-111.277.8112313317510000No40,579,832*
6115-9-100.463.4062334251020000No44,885,386*
6015-8-110.146.00314293117510000No48,820,776*
5915-7-120.028.60172131251130000No52,249,831*
5814-9-110.014.6003122630208200000No55,062,986*
5714-8-120.05.8001516282816510000No57,044,277*
5614-7-130.01.7000282029251241000No58,163,988*
5513-9-12No0.40003102329221030000No58,363,229*
5413-8-13No0.00001413252919820000No57,603,998*
5313-7-14No0.000015152628176100000.0%55,935,233*
5212-9-13No0.000016172727155100000.053,406,053*
5112-8-14No0.0000027192825134100000.050,152,186*
5012-7-15NoNo00002921292412300000.046,328,754*
4911-9-14NoNo000031123292210200000.342,061,331*
4811-8-15NoNo00001413252920720001.737,542,859*
4711-7-16NoNo0000151627281651006.232,935,136*
4610-9-15NoNo0000271930261330016.228,405,438*
4510-8-16NoNo000031024312281032.224,072,369*
4410-7-17NoNo00014152930174051.420,016,268*
439-9-16NoNo0001821332610169.516,366,254*
429-8-17NoNo0000313293317383.313,122,849*
418-10-16NoNo00017223627791.910,326,586*
408-9-17NoNo00031534351396.67,978,812*
398-8-18NoNo0001928422098.76,038,970*
387-10-17NoNo000421443099.64,484,600*
377-9-18NoNo000215434099.93,263,861*
367-8-19NoNo00193951100.02,324,879*
357-7-20NoNo00063461100.01,623,690*
346-9-19NoNo0032769100.01,105,898*
336-8-20NoNo0022177100.0736,777*
326-7-21NoNo011683Yes480,175*
315-9-20NoNo0001288100.0305,700*
305-8-21NoNo00892Yes190,142*
295-7-22NoNo00694Yes115,001*
284-9-21NoNo0496Yes67,647*
274-8-22NoNo0397Yes38,803*
264-7-23NoNo0298Yes21,308*
253-9-22NoNo199Yes11,674*
243-8-23NoNo199Yes5,965*
233-7-24NoNo0100Yes2,987*
223-6-25NoNo0100Yes1,487*
212-8-24NoNo0100Yes713*
202-7-25NoNo0100Yes326*
7-19NoNo100Yes141,801*
Total:4.4%27.1%478887766655444332217.5%1,138,513,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship