How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Sampaio Correa 3 Confianca 1 -0.4
-2.8
+5.1
-0.8
Vitoria 3 Brusque 1 +0.1
+0.2
+0.5
Nautico 3 Botafogo 1 -0.1
Vasco da Gama 3 CRB 0 +0.1
+0.3
Operario-PR 2 Cruzeiro 1 -0.1
-0.2
Guarani 1 Ponte Preta 0 -0.1
-0.1
Vila Nova 0 Coritiba 1 *-0.1
CSA 1 Londrina 0 +0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Confianca vs Vila Nova+0.2-0.1-0.2
+2.0-0.7-1.6
-7.8+1.9+6.9
+1.0-0.3-0.8
Londrina vs Nautico+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.8-0.1-0.5
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.6-0.1-0.4
Brusque vs Sampaio Correa-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Goias vs Avai-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.2-0.2+0.3
Coritiba vs Vitoria-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.1+0.3
Remo vs Guarani+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.1
CRB vs Brasil-RS-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.2+0.3
Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.4-0.2-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/25100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Operario-PR vs Confianca-0.2-0.1+0.3
-1.5-0.4+2.5
+5.3+0.9-8.5
-0.7-0.1+1.1
Confianca vs Coritiba+0.2-0.1-0.2
+2.2-0.6-1.6
-8.0+1.5+6.1
+1.0-0.2-0.8
Nautico vs Remo-0.1+0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.3-0.0+0.5
+0.0+0.0-0.1
CRB vs Nautico+0.1+0.0-0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.4-0.0-0.3
Brusque vs Brasil-RS-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.3-0.1+0.5
Operario-PR vs Vila Nova-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.3-0.1+0.5
Vasco da Gama vs Brusque+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.3-0.1-0.2
Vila Nova vs Goias+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.3-0.2-0.2
Cruzeiro vs Guarani+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.5-0.2-0.3
Goias vs Vasco da Gama-0.1+0.1*+0.0
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Remo vs Sampaio Correa+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Botafogo vs Vitoria-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Guarani vs Coritiba-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Sampaio Correa vs Botafogo-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.1-0.1+0.0
Avai vs CRB+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.2-0.1
Vitoria vs Londrina-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.1-0.3+0.3
Londrina vs Avai+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.3-0.3-0.1
Brasil-RS vs Ponte Preta+0.1-0.3+0.2
Ponte Preta vs CSA+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.2-0.3+0.0
CSA vs Cruzeiro+0.0-0.3+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Confianca finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
85-103YesYes100No141,907*
8425-5-399.1%Yes991No335*
8325-4-497.9Yes982No668*
8225-3-598.6Yes991No1,402*
8124-5-496.4Yes964No2,553*
8024-4-596.3Yes964No4,629*
7923-6-494.2Yes9460No8,357*
7823-5-592.5Yes9270No14,344*
7723-4-689.9Yes90100No24,941*
7622-6-586.8Yes871300No41,209*
7522-5-683.1Yes831600No68,283*
7421-7-578.2Yes782110No110,057*
7321-6-672.6100.0%7326100No173,992*
7221-5-766.0Yes663130No271,741*
7120-7-658.7100.05937400No412,295*
7020-6-750.6100.051427000No619,100*
6920-5-842.0100.0424611100No910,218*
6819-7-733.499.93348162000No1,315,564*
6719-6-825.199.72548234000No1,864,202*
6619-5-917.699.11845297100No2,602,037*
6518-7-811.497.7113935132000No3,569,157*
6418-6-96.794.7731381951000No4,811,725*
6317-8-83.489.0322372692000No6,371,169*
6217-7-91.579.421432321641000No8,298,261*
6117-6-100.665.417243424920000No10,638,399*
6016-8-90.248.0031530301651000No13,409,182*
5916-7-100.030.20172231251130000No16,611,170*
5816-6-110.015.600312263019720000No20,251,428*
5715-8-100.06.3001517292715510000No24,274,557*
5615-7-110.01.9000282029241231000No28,621,387*
5515-6-12No0.40003112329221020000No33,196,056*
5414-8-11No0.10001413252819820000No37,896,305*
5314-7-12No0.00000151526281761000000.0%42,519,261*
5213-9-11No0.00001617272615510000.046,922,185*
5113-8-12No0.000002719282513410000.050,947,782*
5013-7-13NoNo00002921292412300000.054,382,018*
4912-9-12NoNo000031123292210200000.357,073,025*
4812-8-13NoNo00001413252920720001.758,940,440*
4712-7-14NoNo0000151627281651006.159,795,485*
4611-9-13NoNo0000271930261330016.059,666,709*
4511-8-14NoNo0000031024312281031.958,502,054*
4411-7-15NoNo00014152930164051.156,375,488*
4310-9-14NoNo000182233269169.253,385,772*
4210-8-15NoNo0000313303317383.049,657,619*
4110-7-16NoNo00017233626691.845,365,388*
409-9-15NoNo000031534351296.540,695,833*
399-8-16NoNo00001929412098.735,844,388*
389-7-17NoNo000522442999.530,968,142*
378-9-16NoNo000215443999.926,250,552*
368-8-17NoNo0001104049100.021,827,205*
358-7-18NoNo00063559100.017,788,892*
347-9-17NoNo00032868100.014,208,104*
337-8-18NoNo0022276100.011,111,989*
327-7-19NoNo0011782100.08,510,108*
316-9-18NoNo0001387100.06,373,734*
306-8-19NoNo00991Yes4,667,501*
296-7-20NoNo00694Yes3,340,254*
285-9-19NoNo00496Yes2,337,372*
275-8-20NoNo00397Yes1,592,345*
265-7-21NoNo0298Yes1,059,058*
254-9-20NoNo0199Yes683,644*
244-8-21NoNo0199Yes429,822*
234-7-22NoNo0100Yes263,712*
224-6-23NoNo00100Yes156,566*
213-8-22NoNo0100Yes89,445*
203-7-23NoNo0100Yes50,246*
193-6-24NoNo0100Yes26,695*
182-8-23NoNo0100Yes13,893*
172-7-24NoNo0100Yes6,800*
4-16NoNo100Yes147,284*
Total:0.4%4.6%0112233445566778899935.8%1,138,513,440

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship