"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
CSA 1 Londrina 0 +0.2
+1.5
-8.2
+0.9
Vitoria 3 Brusque 1 +0.1
+0.6
Nautico 3 Botafogo 1 -0.1
Vasco da Gama 3 CRB 0 +0.3
Operario-PR 2 Cruzeiro 1 -0.1
-0.2
Guarani 1 Ponte Preta 0 -0.1
-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Londrina vs Nautico+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.7-0.1-0.4
-0.1+0.0+0.0
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR+0.2+0.1-0.2
+0.6-0.1-0.3
Brusque vs Sampaio Correa-0.1+0.2+0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Coritiba vs Vitoria-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Remo vs Guarani+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Goias vs Avai-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.3
Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.3-0.2-0.2
CRB vs Brasil-RS-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.2+0.3
Confianca vs Vila Nova+0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.2-0.3+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/25100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
CSA vs Cruzeiro+0.3-0.2-0.3
+2.7-1.1-2.4
-6.7+1.8+6.5
+1.0-0.3-0.9
Ponte Preta vs CSA-0.3-0.2+0.3
-2.3-1.1+2.7
+6.4+1.7-6.7
-0.9-0.3+1.0
Nautico vs Remo-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.2-0.0+0.4
+0.0+0.0-0.1
CRB vs Nautico+0.1+0.0-0.1
-0.1+0.1-0.0
+0.3-0.0-0.2
Brusque vs Brasil-RS-0.2+0.1+0.1
-0.3-0.1+0.5
Operario-PR vs Confianca-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.3-0.1+0.5
Operario-PR vs Vila Nova-0.2+0.1+0.1
-0.3-0.1+0.4
Vasco da Gama vs Brusque+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.2
Confianca vs Coritiba+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.4-0.2-0.3
Cruzeiro vs Guarani+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.4-0.2-0.3
Vila Nova vs Goias+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.3-0.2-0.2
Remo vs Sampaio Correa+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Guarani vs Coritiba-0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1*-0.0
Botafogo vs Vitoria-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Sampaio Correa vs Botafogo-0.0+0.1-0.0
+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Goias vs Vasco da Gama-0.1+0.1*-0.0
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Avai vs CRB+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.2-0.1
Vitoria vs Londrina-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.2+0.3
Londrina vs Avai+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.3-0.1
Brasil-RS vs Ponte Preta-0.1+0.0+0.1
+0.1-0.3+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the CSA finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
90-104YesYes100No124,344*
8927-3-396.8%Yes973No31*
8826-5-2YesYes100No74*
8726-4-398.7Yes991No151*
8626-3-499.4Yes991No331*
8525-5-398.9Yes991No620*
8425-4-498.5Yes991No1,150*
8325-3-597.9Yes982No2,284*
8224-5-496.9Yes973No4,145*
8124-4-596.0Yes964No7,261*
8023-6-494.6Yes9550No12,998*
7923-5-592.5Yes9270No22,288*
7823-4-690.1Yes90100No37,527*
7722-6-587.6Yes881200No61,730*
7622-5-683.9Yes84160No100,149*
7521-7-579.5Yes792010No157,163*
7421-6-674.4100.0%7425100No245,264*
7321-5-768.6Yes692920No374,786*
7220-7-661.7100.06235300No560,699*
7120-6-754.3100.05440500No826,084*
7020-5-846.3100.046459100No1,192,439*
6919-7-738.2100.0384813100No1,689,901*
6819-6-829.999.83049183000No2,357,277*
6719-5-922.299.62248255000No3,224,400*
6618-7-815.498.91544319100No4,342,829*
6518-6-99.897.2103736143000No5,743,248*
6417-8-85.693.8629382151000No7,471,753*
6317-7-92.887.43203728102000No9,562,076*
6217-6-101.277.011231331751000No12,026,172*
6116-8-90.462.4062234251020000No14,881,774*
6016-7-100.144.8031329311861000No18,096,486*
5916-6-110.027.50162031261230000No21,652,806*
5815-8-100.013.700211253021820000No25,487,531*
5715-7-110.05.3001515282817610000No29,493,959*
5615-6-120.01.5000171929251341000No33,592,216*
5514-8-11No0.300021022292311300000No37,612,670*
5414-7-12No0.00001312242920920000No41,436,598*
5313-9-11No0.000014142628187200000.0%44,892,963*
5213-8-12No0.000015162727166100000.047,842,070*
5113-7-13No0.000001718282614510000.050,122,958*
5012-9-12NoNo00002820292512410000.051,651,834*
4912-8-13NoNo000031022292310300000.452,328,899*
4812-7-14NoNo00001312242920820001.952,120,320*
4711-9-13NoNo0000151527291761006.751,033,037*
4611-8-14NoNo0000171930271330017.049,139,439*
4511-7-15NoNo0000021023312392033.246,470,635*
4410-9-14NoNo00014142831174052.443,193,900*
4310-8-15NoNo0001721332610170.239,419,690*
4210-7-16NoNo0000313293418383.735,351,870*
419-9-15NoNo00017223627792.131,113,788*
409-8-16NoNo000031534351296.626,908,469*
399-7-17NoNo0001929422098.722,805,750*
388-9-16NoNo000422442999.618,985,176*
378-8-17NoNo000215434099.915,479,096*
368-7-18NoNo001104050100.012,377,592*
357-9-17NoNo00063460100.09,700,923*
347-8-18NoNo0032869100.07,449,612*
337-7-19NoNo00022276100.05,591,235*
326-9-18NoNo0011782100.04,109,403*
316-8-19NoNo0001287100.02,957,802*
306-7-20NoNo000991100.02,074,094*
295-9-19NoNo00694Yes1,422,938*
285-8-20NoNo00496Yes950,582*
275-7-21NoNo0397Yes621,832*
264-9-20NoNo0298Yes394,451*
254-8-21NoNo0199Yes243,316*
244-7-22NoNo199Yes145,916*
234-6-23NoNo00100Yes85,034*
223-8-22NoNo0100Yes47,771*
213-7-23NoNo0100Yes25,965*
203-6-24NoNo0100Yes13,664*
192-8-23NoNo0100Yes6,991*
5-18NoNo100Yes130,251*
Total:0.6%7.5%1223344555666777777626.8%999,612,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship