How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 6/11 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed Brasil de Pelotas 1 Vasco da Gama 2 -1.1 -3.7 +5.5 -0.9 Avai 1 Brusque 2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Vitoria 0 Operario-PR 0 +0.1 +0.1 *-0.2 Guarani 1 Nautico 3 *-0.1 -0.1 CRB 3 Confianca 2 *-0.1 Cruzeiro 1 Goias 1 +0.1 -0.2 Sampaio Correa 1 Ponte Preta 0 -0.2 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Confianca vs Brasil de Pelotas -0.8-0.3+1.0 -3.1-1.2+3.9 +6.0+1.6-7.0 -0.9-0.3+1.1 Nautico vs Vila Nova -0.1+0.1+0.0 -0.1+0.2+0.0 -0.1-0.1+0.2 Londrina vs Botafogo +0.0+0.0-0.1 +0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.2-0.2-0.1 Goias vs CRB -0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.1-0.1-0.0 Vasco da Gama vs Avai -0.1+0.1+0.0 -0.0-0.2+0.2 Remo vs Vitoria -0.1+0.1+0.0 -0.0-0.2+0.1 Operario-PR vs Sampaio Correa -0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.1-0.1+0.0 CSA vs Guarani +0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.2-0.2-0.0 Ponte Preta vs Cruzeiro -0.0+0.1-0.0 +0.1-0.2+0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 6/18 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed Brusque vs Coritiba -0.1+0.1+0.0 -0.1+0.1+0.0 -0.1-0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Brasil de Pelotas finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Serie A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie C Count 87 -106 Yes Yes 100 No 768,651 * 86 27 - 4 - 4 100.0 % Yes 100 0 No 4,756 * 85 26 - 6 - 3 100.0 Yes 100 0 No 8,957 * 84 26 - 5 - 4 100.0 Yes 100 0 No 16,353 * 83 26 - 4 - 5 99.9 Yes 100 0 No 29,649 * 82 25 - 6 - 4 99.8 Yes 100 0 No 52,270 * 81 25 - 5 - 5 99.8 Yes 100 0 No 90,162 * 80 25 - 4 - 6 99.6 Yes 100 0 0 No 152,986 * 79 24 - 6 - 5 99.3 Yes 99 1 0 No 252,526 * 78 24 - 5 - 6 99.0 Yes 99 1 0 No 407,531 * 77 23 - 7 - 5 98.4 Yes 98 2 0 No 650,305 * 76 23 - 6 - 6 97.6 Yes 98 2 0 0 No 1,016,183 * 75 23 - 5 - 7 96.4 Yes 96 4 0 0 No 1,556,856 * 74 22 - 7 - 6 94.7 Yes 95 5 0 0 No 2,346,558 * 73 22 - 6 - 7 92.3 Yes 92 8 0 0 No 3,468,679 * 72 22 - 5 - 8 88.9 Yes 89 11 0 0 No 5,045,115 * 71 21 - 7 - 7 84.5 100.0 % 85 15 1 0 0 No 7,208,041 * 70 21 - 6 - 8 78.8 100.0 79 20 2 0 0 No 10,126,601 * 69 20 - 8 - 7 71.6 100.0 72 25 3 0 0 0 No 13,987,057 * 68 20 - 7 - 8 63.1 100.0 63 31 5 0 0 0 No 18,990,100 * 67 20 - 6 - 9 53.3 100.0 53 37 9 1 0 0 0 No 25,373,115 * 66 19 - 8 - 8 42.6 99.8 43 41 14 2 0 0 0 No 33,356,533 * 65 19 - 7 - 9 31.9 99.5 32 43 20 4 0 0 0 0 No 43,144,583 * 64 19 - 6 - 10 21.9 98.5 22 41 27 9 1 0 0 0 No 54,899,527 * 63 18 - 8 - 9 13.5 96.1 13 35 33 15 3 0 0 0 0 No 68,779,216 * 62 18 - 7 - 10 7.2 90.9 7 26 35 22 8 1 0 0 0 0 No 84,800,696 * 61 18 - 6 - 11 3.3 81.1 3 17 32 29 14 4 1 0 0 0 0 No 102,904,965 * 60 17 - 8 - 10 1.2 65.8 1 9 24 32 23 9 2 0 0 0 0 No 122,952,603 * 59 17 - 7 - 11 0.3 46.1 0 4 14 28 29 17 6 1 0 0 0 0 No 144,589,244 * 58 16 - 9 - 10 0.1 26.3 0 1 6 19 29 26 14 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 No 167,433,112 * 57 16 - 8 - 11 0.0 11.4 0 0 2 9 22 29 23 11 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 No 190,899,888 * 56 16 - 7 - 12 0.0 3.5 0 0 0 3 11 23 29 21 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 No 214,250,599 * 55 15 - 9 - 11 0.0 0.7 0 0 0 1 4 13 25 28 19 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 No 236,731,279 * 54 15 - 8 - 12 No 0.1 0 0 0 1 4 14 25 28 18 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 % 257,523,680 * 53 15 - 7 - 13 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 5 14 26 28 18 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 275,904,689 * 52 14 - 9 - 12 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 5 15 26 27 17 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 290,917,392 * 51 14 - 8 - 13 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 5 15 26 27 17 6 1 0 0 0 0 0.0 301,997,272 * 50 14 - 7 - 14 No No 0 0 0 0 1 6 16 27 27 16 6 1 0 0 0 0 0.1 308,645,033 * 49 13 - 9 - 13 No No 0 0 0 0 1 6 17 27 27 15 5 1 0 0 0 1.1 310,471,460 * 48 13 - 8 - 14 No No 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 18 28 26 14 4 1 0 0 4.9 307,429,194 * 47 13 - 7 - 15 No No 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 21 29 24 12 3 0 0 14.9 299,528,527 * 46 12 - 9 - 14 No No 0 0 0 0 0 3 11 24 30 22 9 2 0 32.1 287,217,724 * 45 12 - 8 - 15 No No 0 0 0 0 1 4 14 28 30 18 5 1 53.0 270,964,820 * 44 11 - 10 - 14 No No 0 0 0 0 1 7 20 32 27 11 2 72.2 251,487,892 * 43 11 - 9 - 15 No No 0 0 0 0 0 3 11 27 34 21 5 85.8 229,604,265 * 42 11 - 8 - 16 No No 0 0 0 0 1 5 19 35 30 10 93.8 206,147,774 * 41 10 - 10 - 15 No No 0 0 0 0 2 11 31 38 17 97.6 182,004,630 * 40 10 - 9 - 16 No No 0 0 0 1 6 24 42 27 99.2 157,959,409 * 39 10 - 8 - 17 No No 0 0 0 0 3 16 42 38 99.8 134,745,120 * 38 9 - 10 - 16 No No 0 0 0 1 10 39 50 99.9 112,944,933 * 37 9 - 9 - 17 No No 0 0 0 6 33 60 100.0 92,998,466 * 36 9 - 8 - 18 No No 0 0 0 3 27 70 100.0 75,202,303 * 35 8 - 10 - 17 No No 0 0 0 2 20 78 100.0 59,694,325 * 34 8 - 9 - 18 No No 0 0 1 15 84 100.0 46,508,224 * 33 8 - 8 - 19 No No 0 0 0 11 89 100.0 35,547,667 * 32 7 - 10 - 18 No No 0 0 0 7 93 100.0 26,637,389 * 31 7 - 9 - 19 No No 0 0 5 95 Yes 19,563,799 * 30 7 - 8 - 20 No No 0 0 3 97 Yes 14,080,882 * 29 6 - 10 - 19 No No 0 2 98 Yes 9,923,483 * 28 6 - 9 - 20 No No 0 1 99 Yes 6,848,191 * 27 6 - 8 - 21 No No 0 1 99 Yes 4,620,235 * 26 6 - 7 - 22 No No 0 0 100 Yes 3,044,973 * 25 5 - 9 - 21 No No 0 0 100 Yes 1,958,218 * 24 5 - 8 - 22 No No 0 0 100 Yes 1,229,954 * 23 5 - 7 - 23 No No 0 100 Yes 753,634 * 22 4 - 9 - 22 No No 0 100 Yes 448,789 * 21 4 - 8 - 23 No No 0 100 Yes 261,030 * 20 4 - 7 - 24 No No 0 100 Yes 146,844 * 19 3 - 9 - 23 No No 0 100 Yes 80,401 * 18 3 - 8 - 24 No No 0 100 Yes 42,199 * 17 3 - 7 - 25 No No 0 100 Yes 21,281 * 16 3 - 6 - 26 No No 0 100 Yes 10,615 * 15 2 - 8 - 25 No No 100 Yes 4,927 * 14 2 - 7 - 26 No No 0 100 Yes 2,283 * 11 -13 No No 100 Yes 1,581 * 10 1 - 6 - 28 No No 1 99 Yes 72 * 1 -9 No No 100 Yes 763,885 * Total: 2.0 % 10.9 % 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 30.2 % 6,142,184,160

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship