How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 6/11 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed Brasil de Pelotas 1 Vasco da Gama 2 -0.5 -2.7 +6.3 -0.9 Guarani 1 Nautico 3 -0.1 -0.1 *-0.1 Avai 1 Brusque 2 -0.1 -0.3 CRB 3 Confianca 2 -0.1 Vila Nova 1 CSA 0 -0.1 Cruzeiro 1 Goias 1 +0.1 -0.2 Coritiba 1 Londrina 1 +0.1 -0.2 Vitoria 0 Operario-PR 0 +0.1 -0.2 Sampaio Correa 1 Ponte Preta 0 *-0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Confianca vs Brasil de Pelotas -0.2-0.1+0.3 -1.3-0.5+2.0 +6.2+1.3-8.5 -0.7-0.2+1.0 Nautico vs Vila Nova -0.1+0.1+0.0 -0.2-0.0+0.3 Londrina vs Botafogo +0.1+0.1-0.1 +0.5-0.1-0.3 Goias vs CRB +0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.2-0.1-0.1 Operario-PR vs Sampaio Correa -0.0+0.1-0.0 +0.1-0.1-0.0 Vasco da Gama vs Avai -0.1+0.0+0.0 -0.1-0.2+0.3 Remo vs Vitoria -0.1+0.1+0.0 -0.1-0.2+0.3 CSA vs Guarani +0.0+0.0-0.1 +0.3-0.2-0.2 Ponte Preta vs Cruzeiro +0.1-0.3+0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 6/18 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Serie A 100.0* Serie C 100.0* Average seed Brusque vs Coritiba -0.1+0.1+0.0 -0.2-0.1+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Brasil de Pelotas finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Serie A 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie C Count 88 -106 Yes Yes 100 No 2,274,695 * 87 27 - 5 - 3 99.8 % Yes 100 0 No 889 * 86 27 - 4 - 4 99.8 Yes 100 0 No 1,921 * 85 26 - 6 - 3 99.9 Yes 100 0 No 3,778 * 84 26 - 5 - 4 99.8 Yes 100 0 No 7,314 * 83 26 - 4 - 5 99.6 Yes 100 0 No 13,911 * 82 25 - 6 - 4 99.3 Yes 99 1 No 25,964 * 81 25 - 5 - 5 98.9 Yes 99 1 0 No 46,665 * 80 25 - 4 - 6 98.4 Yes 98 2 0 No 82,518 * 79 24 - 6 - 5 97.6 Yes 98 2 0 No 144,366 * 78 24 - 5 - 6 96.4 Yes 96 4 0 No 247,020 * 77 23 - 7 - 5 94.9 Yes 95 5 0 No 413,634 * 76 23 - 6 - 6 92.8 Yes 93 7 0 0 No 680,999 * 75 23 - 5 - 7 89.9 Yes 90 10 0 0 No 1,102,554 * 74 22 - 7 - 6 86.3 Yes 86 13 1 0 No 1,748,374 * 73 22 - 6 - 7 81.7 100.0 % 82 17 1 0 0 No 2,728,636 * 72 22 - 5 - 8 75.9 100.0 76 22 2 0 0 No 4,180,136 * 71 21 - 7 - 7 69.0 100.0 69 28 3 0 0 No 6,295,197 * 70 21 - 6 - 8 61.0 100.0 61 33 6 0 0 0 No 9,319,082 * 69 20 - 8 - 7 52.1 100.0 52 38 9 1 0 0 0 No 13,566,486 * 68 20 - 7 - 8 42.6 99.9 43 42 13 2 0 0 0 No 19,410,385 * 67 20 - 6 - 9 33.0 99.7 33 44 19 4 0 0 0 No 27,349,764 * 66 19 - 8 - 8 24.0 99.1 24 43 26 7 1 0 0 0 No 37,891,324 * 65 19 - 7 - 9 16.1 97.8 16 39 32 11 2 0 0 0 0 No 51,662,841 * 64 19 - 6 - 10 9.8 94.9 10 32 36 18 4 1 0 0 0 No 69,308,806 * 63 18 - 8 - 9 5.2 89.3 5 23 36 25 9 2 0 0 0 0 No 91,510,232 * 62 18 - 7 - 10 2.4 79.8 2 15 32 31 15 4 1 0 0 0 0 No 118,917,055 * 61 18 - 6 - 11 0.9 65.7 1 8 24 33 23 9 2 0 0 0 0 No 152,094,399 * 60 17 - 8 - 10 0.3 48.2 0 4 15 29 30 16 5 1 0 0 0 0 No 191,564,371 * 59 17 - 7 - 11 0.1 30.2 0 1 8 21 31 25 11 3 0 0 0 0 No 237,455,494 * 58 16 - 9 - 10 0.0 15.3 0 0 3 12 26 30 20 8 2 0 0 0 0 No 289,819,731 * 57 16 - 8 - 11 0.0 6.0 0 0 1 5 16 28 28 16 5 1 0 0 0 0 No 348,203,098 * 56 16 - 7 - 12 0.0 1.7 0 0 0 2 8 20 29 25 12 4 1 0 0 0 0 No 411,954,622 * 55 15 - 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 0 0 0 0 2 10 23 29 22 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 No 479,799,904 * 54 15 - 8 - 12 No 0.0 0 0 0 1 3 12 25 29 20 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 % 550,199,322 * 53 15 - 7 - 13 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 5 14 26 28 18 7 2 0 0 0 0 0.0 621,134,338 * 52 14 - 9 - 12 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 6 16 27 27 16 6 1 0 0 0 0 0.0 690,393,603 * 51 14 - 8 - 13 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 1 7 18 28 26 14 5 1 0 0 0 0 0.0 755,433,877 * 50 14 - 7 - 14 No 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 20 29 25 12 4 1 0 0 0 0.1 813,719,573 * 49 13 - 9 - 13 No No 0 0 0 0 0 3 10 22 29 23 10 3 0 0 0 0 0.4 862,673,992 * 48 13 - 8 - 14 No No 0 0 0 0 1 3 12 24 29 21 8 2 0 0 0 2.1 900,324,879 * 47 13 - 7 - 15 No No 0 0 0 0 1 5 15 27 28 18 6 1 0 0 7.3 924,649,319 * 46 12 - 9 - 14 No No 0 0 0 0 1 7 18 29 27 14 4 0 0 18.3 934,452,312 * 45 12 - 8 - 15 No No 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 22 31 23 10 2 0 35.1 929,289,917 * 44 12 - 7 - 16 No No 0 0 0 0 1 4 14 27 31 18 5 1 54.5 909,035,317 * 43 11 - 9 - 15 No No 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 20 32 27 11 2 72.1 874,821,839 * 42 11 - 8 - 16 No No 0 0 0 0 0 3 12 28 34 20 4 85.1 827,912,060 * 41 11 - 7 - 17 No No 0 0 0 0 1 6 20 35 29 8 93.0 770,446,364 * 40 10 - 9 - 16 No No 0 0 0 0 3 13 32 37 15 97.1 704,835,129 * 39 10 - 8 - 17 No No 0 0 0 0 1 7 26 42 24 98.9 633,801,156 * 38 10 - 7 - 18 No No 0 0 0 0 4 19 43 34 99.6 559,950,998 * 37 9 - 9 - 17 No No 0 0 0 2 13 41 45 99.9 486,030,891 * 36 9 - 8 - 18 No No 0 0 0 1 8 36 55 100.0 414,333,597 * 35 8 - 10 - 17 No No 0 0 0 0 5 30 65 100.0 346,722,729 * 34 8 - 9 - 18 No No 0 0 0 2 24 73 100.0 284,842,871 * 33 8 - 8 - 19 No No 0 0 0 1 18 80 100.0 229,504,729 * 32 8 - 7 - 20 No No 0 0 1 13 86 100.0 181,350,522 * 31 7 - 9 - 19 No No 0 0 0 10 90 100.0 140,471,858 * 30 7 - 8 - 20 No No 0 0 7 93 Yes 106,598,786 * 29 7 - 7 - 21 No No 0 0 4 96 Yes 79,226,267 * 28 6 - 9 - 20 No No 0 0 3 97 Yes 57,608,744 * 27 6 - 8 - 21 No No 0 0 2 98 Yes 40,978,545 * 26 6 - 7 - 22 No No 0 0 1 99 Yes 28,488,101 * 25 5 - 9 - 21 No No 0 1 99 Yes 19,340,211 * 24 5 - 8 - 22 No No 0 0 100 Yes 12,810,744 * 23 5 - 7 - 23 No No 0 0 100 Yes 8,277,608 * 22 4 - 9 - 22 No No 0 0 100 Yes 5,205,419 * 21 4 - 8 - 23 No No 0 100 Yes 3,184,242 * 20 4 - 7 - 24 No No 0 100 Yes 1,893,691 * 19 3 - 9 - 23 No No 0 100 Yes 1,091,291 * 18 3 - 8 - 24 No No 0 100 Yes 609,798 * 17 3 - 7 - 25 No No 0 100 Yes 329,670 * 16 3 - 6 - 26 No No 0 100 Yes 170,795 * 15 2 - 8 - 25 No No 0 100 Yes 86,096 * 14 2 - 7 - 26 No No 0 100 Yes 41,214 * 13 2 - 6 - 27 No No 0 100 Yes 18,898 * 12 1 - 8 - 26 No No 0 100 Yes 8,294 * 1 -11 No No 100 Yes 2,279,509 * Total: 0.4 % 4.1 % 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 11 12 40.8 % 18,284,405,280

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship