How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Nautico 3 Botafogo 1 -2.7
-5.7
+1.4
-0.7
Vitoria 3 Brusque 1 +0.5
+0.3
+0.1
Operario-PR 2 Cruzeiro 1 -0.1
-0.4
-0.1
Vasco da Gama 3 CRB 0 +0.1
+0.2
+0.1
Guarani 1 Ponte Preta 0 -0.1
-0.3
Vila Nova 0 Coritiba 1 *-0.1
-0.1
Sampaio Correa 3 Confianca 1 -0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Londrina vs Nautico+0.5+0.3-0.5
+0.2+0.2-0.2
+0.3-0.0-0.2
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.5+0.3-0.5
+0.3-0.1-0.1
Brusque vs Sampaio Correa-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.2+0.4+0.0
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Coritiba vs Vitoria-0.1+0.0+0.0
-0.3+0.3+0.1
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Goias vs Avai-0.3+0.3+0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.1
Remo vs Guarani+0.1+0.3-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama+0.2+0.2-0.3
+0.1-0.1-0.1
CRB vs Brasil-RS-0.2+0.2+0.1
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Confianca vs Vila Nova+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/25100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Sampaio Correa vs Botafogo-1.2-0.5+1.6
-5.3-1.7+7.0
+2.5+0.4-3.1
-0.8-0.2+1.0
Botafogo vs Vitoria+1.4-0.6-1.2
+6.1-2.3-5.8
-2.9+0.7+3.0
+0.9-0.3-0.9
Nautico vs Remo-0.4+0.3+0.5
-0.1+0.2-0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.2
CRB vs Nautico+0.5+0.2-0.5
-0.1+0.2-0.0
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Brusque vs Brasil-RS-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.4+0.3+0.3
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Operario-PR vs Confianca-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.4+0.3+0.4
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Operario-PR vs Vila Nova-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.4+0.3+0.3
-0.1-0.0+0.2
Vasco da Gama vs Brusque+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.3-0.3
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Confianca vs Coritiba+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.3+0.2-0.4
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Cruzeiro vs Guarani+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.3+0.2-0.4
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Guarani vs Coritiba*+0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.1+0.3-0.1
Vila Nova vs Goias+0.0+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.2-0.3
+0.1-0.1-0.1
Remo vs Sampaio Correa+0.0+0.3-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Goias vs Vasco da Gama-0.2+0.3-0.0
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Avai vs CRB+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Vitoria vs Londrina-0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Londrina vs Avai+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.1-0.1-0.0
Ponte Preta vs CSA+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.1-0.1+0.0
Brasil-RS vs Ponte Preta-0.2+0.1+0.1
+0.0-0.1+0.1
CSA vs Cruzeiro-0.1+0.1+0.0
+0.0-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Botafogo finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
92-107YesYes100No194,798*
9126-5-299.9%Yes1000No797*
9026-4-399.9Yes1000No1,524*
8926-3-499.9Yes1000No2,892*
8825-5-399.6Yes1000No5,554*
8725-4-499.5Yes991No10,112*
8624-6-399.2Yes991No18,524*
8524-5-498.9Yes991No32,216*
8424-4-598.3Yes982No55,178*
8323-6-497.7Yes9820No91,768*
8223-5-596.8Yes9730No150,861*
8123-4-695.6Yes9640No239,893*
8022-6-594.1Yes9460No378,029*
7922-5-692.1Yes9280No580,800*
7821-7-589.6Yes901000No874,495*
7721-6-686.6Yes871300No1,294,745*
7621-5-782.8Yes831700No1,873,642*
7520-7-678.4100.0%7821100No2,671,262*
7420-6-773.1Yes732610No3,729,143*
7320-5-867.1100.06731200No5,123,405*
7219-7-760.3100.06036400No6,903,553*
7119-6-852.8100.053416000No9,139,115*
7018-8-744.8100.045459100No11,899,812*
6918-7-836.699.93748141000No15,220,435*
6818-6-928.599.82949193000No19,131,118*
6717-8-821.099.52148265000No23,640,576*
6617-7-914.498.814433291000No28,723,661*
6517-6-109.197.093737153000No34,305,663*
6416-8-95.293.55283922610000No40,314,325*
6316-7-102.687.03193729112000No46,583,795*
6216-6-111.176.511230331851000No52,930,979*
6115-8-100.461.8062234251020000No59,155,677*
6015-7-110.144.30213293118610000No64,998,050*
5914-9-100.027.10162031261230000No70,248,819*
5814-8-110.013.600211253021820000No74,699,466*
5714-7-120.05.3001515282816610000No78,092,865*
5613-9-110.01.50001719292513410000No80,291,344*
5513-8-12No0.30002102229231030000No81,206,098*
5413-7-13No0.00001312242920820000No80,750,048*
5312-9-12No0.000014142628187200000.0%78,937,458*
5212-8-13No0.000016162727166100000.075,885,868*
5112-7-14No0.000001718282614510000.071,719,516*
5011-9-13No0.0000002820292412410000.066,614,071*
4911-8-14NoNo000031022292310300000.460,810,813*
4811-7-15NoNo00001312242920820001.954,547,748*
4710-9-14NoNo0000151527281761006.748,075,987*
4610-8-15NoNo0000171929271330017.241,594,352*
4510-7-16NoNo000021023312392033.535,352,470*
449-9-15NoNo00014142831175052.929,519,557*
439-8-16NoNo00001721332710170.724,177,746*
429-7-17NoNo0000313293418384.119,420,598*
418-9-16NoNo00016223627792.415,320,697*
408-8-17NoNo000031434361396.811,829,743*
398-7-18NoNo0001828422198.88,962,230*
387-9-17NoNo000421443199.66,651,740*
377-8-18NoNo00214434199.94,837,043*
367-7-19NoNo000193952100.03,441,958*
356-9-18NoNo00053361100.02,394,887*
346-8-19NoNo0032770100.01,630,074*
336-7-20NoNo0022178100.01,083,898*
325-9-19NoNo011683Yes701,356*
315-8-20NoNo001188Yes443,830*
305-7-21NoNo00892Yes273,977*
294-9-20NoNo0694Yes164,382*
284-8-21NoNo0496Yes95,711*
274-7-22NoNo0298Yes54,292*
263-9-21NoNo0298Yes29,483*
253-8-22NoNo199Yes15,818*
243-7-23NoNo199Yes8,171*
233-6-24NoNo0100Yes3,999*
222-8-23NoNo0100Yes1,812*
8-21NoNo100Yes195,598*
Total:3.5%24.6%467777776665544332218.3%1,560,361,920

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship