How are these numbers calculated?

## Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

 Week of 7/24 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Atletico-MG 3 Bahia 0 -0.1 -4.8 +1.0 -0.5 Palmeiras 1 Fluminense 0 -0.1 +0.3 +0.0 Flamengo 5 Sao Paulo 1 -0.7 -0.1 Fortaleza 1 Bragantino 0 -0.1 Athletico-PR 2 Internacional 1 -0.5 -0.1 Gremio 1 America-MG 1 -0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Sport Recife vs Ceara +0.4+0.2-0.4 +0.3-0.1-0.2 Cuiaba vs Corinthians *+0.0+0.1-0.1 +0.0-0.1*-0.0 Juventude vs Chapecoense -0.1+0.1+0.1 +0.1-0.1-0.1 If winner is:HomeDrawAway Week of 7/31 100.0* Chance wins title 100.0* Libertadores 100.0* Serie B 100.0* Average seed Bahia vs Sport Recife +0.1-0.0-0.0 +3.9-2.0-4.1 -2.2+0.6+2.7 +0.7-0.3-0.8 Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras +0.4*+0.0-0.2 Ceara vs Fortaleza -0.3+0.2+0.1 -0.1+0.0+0.0 Corinthians vs Flamengo +0.3+0.3-0.4 +0.2*-0.0-0.1 Atletico-MG vs Athletico-PR +0.3+0.1-0.5 Bragantino vs Gremio -0.5+0.3+0.7 -0.2*-0.0+0.4 Gremio vs Flamengo +0.6+0.3-0.4 +0.4*-0.0-0.2 Atletico-GO vs America-MG -0.3+0.2+0.4 -0.2-0.1+0.3 Chapecoense vs Santos +0.2+0.1-0.2 +0.1+0.0-0.1 Fluminense vs Juventude -0.2+0.2+0.2 -0.1*-0.0+0.1 Internacional vs Cuiaba +0.1-0.1*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

## What If

Chances based on how well the Bahia finish out the regular season.   Explain

 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 If finish: Chance Chance will finish season at seed TP W - D - L wins title Libertadores 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Serie B Count 92 25 - 0 - 0 99.8 % Yes 100 0 No 1,054 84 21 - 4 - 0 Yes Yes 100 No 1 83 21 - 3 - 1 75.0 Yes 75 25 No 4 82 21 - 2 - 2 Yes Yes 100 No 6 * 81 21 - 1 - 3 94.4 Yes 94 6 No 18 * 80 20 - 3 - 2 72.2 Yes 72 28 No 18 * 79 20 - 2 - 3 75.7 Yes 76 21 3 No 70 * 78 19 - 4 - 2 70.0 Yes 70 28 2 No 130 * 77 19 - 3 - 3 57.7 Yes 58 38 3 0 No 239 * 76 19 - 2 - 4 51.6 Yes 52 39 9 0 No 428 * 75 18 - 4 - 3 38.7 Yes 39 48 12 1 0 No 782 * 74 18 - 3 - 4 32.1 Yes 32 48 18 2 No 1,369 * 73 17 - 5 - 3 23.3 Yes 23 49 23 4 0 No 2,272 * 72 17 - 4 - 4 17.4 Yes 17 46 29 6 0 0 No 3,703 * 71 17 - 3 - 5 10.6 Yes 11 40 36 12 1 0 No 6,044 * 70 16 - 5 - 4 6.3 100.0 % 6 33 40 18 3 0 0 No 9,288 * 69 16 - 4 - 5 3.4 100.0 3 24 40 25 6 1 0 No 14,380 * 68 15 - 6 - 4 1.5 99.9 2 16 37 31 12 2 0 No 21,267 * 67 15 - 5 - 5 0.7 99.7 1 9 31 37 18 4 0 No 30,848 * 66 15 - 4 - 6 0.3 99.2 0 5 23 38 25 7 1 0 No 43,245 * 65 14 - 6 - 5 0.1 98.0 0 3 16 35 32 13 2 0 No 59,901 * 64 14 - 5 - 6 0.0 95.4 0 1 9 29 37 20 4 0 No 80,980 * 63 14 - 4 - 7 0.0 90.6 0 0 5 21 37 28 9 1 0 No 106,618 * 62 13 - 6 - 6 No 82.9 0 2 14 33 34 15 2 0 No 137,206 * 61 13 - 5 - 7 No 71.8 0 1 7 26 38 23 5 0 0 No 172,994 * 60 13 - 4 - 8 No 57.9 0 0 4 18 36 31 10 1 0 0 No 211,976 * 59 12 - 6 - 7 No 42.7 0 0 1 10 31 37 17 3 0 0 No 256,450 * 58 12 - 5 - 8 No 28.2 0 0 5 22 39 25 7 1 0 0 No 301,547 * 57 11 - 7 - 7 No 16.3 0 0 2 14 35 33 13 2 0 0 No 349,218 * 56 11 - 6 - 8 No 8.1 0 1 7 27 37 21 6 1 0 0 No 391,861 * 55 11 - 5 - 9 No 3.4 0 0 3 18 35 30 11 2 0 0 0 No 433,563 * 54 10 - 7 - 8 No 1.2 0 0 1 10 28 35 20 5 1 0 0 No 467,584 * 53 10 - 6 - 9 No 0.3 0 0 5 19 34 28 11 2 0 0 0 No 491,668 * 52 10 - 5 - 10 No 0.1 0 0 2 11 28 33 20 6 1 0 0 No 509,020 * 51 9 - 7 - 9 No 0.0 0 0 5 19 32 28 12 3 0 0 0 No 513,207 * 50 9 - 6 - 10 No 0.0 0 0 2 10 26 33 21 7 1 0 0 No 504,057 * 49 9 - 5 - 11 No 0.0 0 0 1 4 17 31 29 14 4 0 0 0 0.0 % 486,766 * 48 8 - 7 - 10 No No 0 0 2 9 23 32 23 9 2 0 0 0.0 460,228 * 47 8 - 6 - 11 No No 0 0 3 14 29 31 17 5 1 0 0 0.0 423,397 * 46 8 - 5 - 12 No No 0 0 1 7 20 32 26 11 2 0 0 0 0.2 381,074 * 45 7 - 7 - 11 No No 0 0 0 2 12 26 32 20 6 1 0 0 1.0 333,411 * 44 7 - 6 - 12 No No 0 0 1 5 18 31 29 13 3 0 0 3.2 286,304 * 43 7 - 5 - 13 No No 0 0 0 2 9 25 33 22 7 1 0 0 8.6 239,669 * 42 6 - 7 - 12 No No 0 0 4 16 31 31 15 3 0 0 18.1 194,379 * 41 6 - 6 - 13 No No 0 0 1 8 24 34 24 7 1 0 32.4 153,620 * 40 6 - 5 - 14 No No 0 0 3 15 32 32 15 3 0 49.5 119,497 * 39 5 - 7 - 13 No No 0 0 1 8 25 36 24 6 0 66.0 90,285 * 38 5 - 6 - 14 No No 0 0 3 16 35 33 12 1 80.1 65,300 * 37 5 - 5 - 15 No No 0 0 1 9 29 39 20 2 89.3 46,457 * 36 4 - 7 - 14 No No 0 0 4 21 41 29 5 95.3 32,563 * 35 4 - 6 - 15 No No 0 2 13 38 38 9 98.1 21,312 * 34 4 - 5 - 16 No No 0 1 7 32 46 13 99.3 13,679 * 33 3 - 7 - 15 No No 0 4 24 50 21 99.8 8,537 * 32 3 - 6 - 16 No No 0 2 17 51 30 100.0 5,179 * 31 3 - 5 - 17 No No 0 1 11 49 40 100.0 3,006 * 30 2 - 7 - 16 No No 0 6 45 49 Yes 1,694 * 29 2 - 6 - 17 No No 3 37 59 Yes 863 * 28 2 - 5 - 18 No No 2 29 69 Yes 466 * 27 2 - 4 - 19 No No 1 27 72 Yes 230 * 26 1 - 6 - 18 No No 1 27 72 Yes 103 * 25 1 - 5 - 19 No No 2 27 71 Yes 49 * 24 1 - 4 - 20 No No 6 94 Yes 18 * 23 1 - 3 - 21 No No 100 Yes 4 * 17 0 - 0 - 25 No No 0 100 Yes 1,054 Total: 0.1 % 12.2 % 0 0 1 2 3 6 9 10 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4.9 % 8,492,160

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship