How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 6/19100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Nautico 3 Botafogo 1 -0.1
-0.1
Vitoria 3 Brusque 1 +0.1
+0.2
+0.5
Operario-PR 2 Cruzeiro 1 -0.1
-0.1
Vasco da Gama 3 CRB 0 +0.1
+0.3
Guarani 1 Ponte Preta 0 -0.1
-0.1
Sampaio Correa 3 Confianca 1 *-0.1
CSA 1 Londrina 0 +0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Goias vs Avai-0.4-0.2+0.6
-2.6-0.8+3.9
+4.8+0.9-6.6
-0.8-0.2+1.1
Londrina vs Nautico+0.2+0.1-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.7-0.1-0.4
Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR+0.3+0.1-0.3
+0.5-0.1-0.3
Brusque vs Sampaio Correa-0.1+0.2+0.0
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Coritiba vs Vitoria-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Remo vs Guarani+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Cruzeiro vs Vasco da Gama+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.3-0.2-0.2
CRB vs Brasil-RS-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.2+0.2
Confianca vs Vila Nova+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.1-0.3+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 6/25100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Serie A100.0*Serie C100.0*Average seed
Avai vs CRB+0.5-0.2-0.4
+3.5-1.1-2.8
-6.2+1.4+5.4
+1.0-0.3-0.9
Londrina vs Avai-0.4-0.2+0.5
-2.7-1.1+3.3
+5.7+1.3-6.4
-0.9-0.3+1.0
Nautico vs Remo-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.0+0.1-0.0
-0.2-0.0+0.4
+0.0+0.0-0.1
CRB vs Nautico+0.1+0.1-0.1
-0.1+0.1-0.0
+0.3-0.0-0.2
Brusque vs Brasil-RS-0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.3-0.1+0.4
Operario-PR vs Confianca-0.2+0.1+0.2
-0.3-0.1+0.5
Vasco da Gama vs Brusque+0.1+0.2-0.2
+0.2-0.1-0.2
Operario-PR vs Vila Nova-0.2+0.2+0.2
-0.3-0.1+0.4
Confianca vs Coritiba+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.4-0.2-0.2
Cruzeiro vs Guarani+0.1+0.1-0.2
+0.4-0.2-0.2
Guarani vs Coritiba-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Vila Nova vs Goias+0.1+0.1-0.1
+0.3-0.1-0.2
Remo vs Sampaio Correa+0.0+0.1-0.1
+0.2-0.1-0.1
Botafogo vs Vitoria-0.1+0.1+0.0
-0.1-0.1+0.2
Goias vs Vasco da Gama-0.1+0.1-0.0
-0.0-0.1+0.1
Sampaio Correa vs Botafogo-0.0+0.2-0.1
+0.0-0.1*+0.0
Vitoria vs Londrina-0.1+0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.2+0.3
Ponte Preta vs CSA+0.1+0.0-0.1
+0.1-0.3+0.0
Brasil-RS vs Ponte Preta-0.1+0.1+0.1
+0.0-0.3+0.1
CSA vs Cruzeiro-0.0+0.1+0.0
+0.0-0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Avai finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TPW-D-Lwins titleSerie A1234567891011121314151617181920Serie CCount
89-106YesYes100No124,479*
8827-3-498.9%Yes991No179*
8726-5-398.9Yes991No367*
8626-4-499.6Yes1000No695*
8525-6-399.4Yes991No1,410*
8425-5-499.2Yes991No2,598*
8325-4-598.5Yes991No4,514*
8224-6-497.6Yes982No8,042*
8124-5-596.7Yes9730No13,926*
8024-4-695.8Yes9640No23,564*
7923-6-594.0Yes9460No39,302*
7823-5-691.7Yes9280No64,320*
7722-7-589.0Yes891100No102,978*
7622-6-685.5Yes851400No161,683*
7522-5-781.6Yes821810No250,433*
7421-7-676.5Yes762210No380,281*
7321-6-770.6100.0%7128200No564,900*
7221-5-864.0100.06433300No826,366*
7120-7-756.4100.05638500No1,187,002*
7020-6-848.3100.048438100No1,674,445*
6919-8-739.8100.0404712100No2,321,235*
6819-7-831.399.93148182000No3,169,006*
6719-6-923.399.62348245000No4,248,356*
6618-8-816.298.916443081000No5,607,434*
6518-7-910.397.31037361420000No7,267,097*
6418-6-106.094.0629382151000No9,275,426*
6317-8-93.087.832037281020000No11,649,099*
6217-7-101.377.611231331751000No14,377,587*
6117-6-110.563.2062334251020000No17,481,480*
6016-8-100.145.80314293117510000No20,893,130*
5916-7-110.028.40172131251230000No24,595,773*
5815-9-100.014.4003122530208200000No28,476,465*
5715-8-110.05.7001516282816510000No32,438,828*
5615-7-120.01.7000282029251341000No36,362,942*
5514-9-11No0.30003102329221030000No40,123,002*
5414-8-12No0.00001413252920820000No43,570,310*
5314-7-13No0.0000015152628176100000.0%46,528,537*
5213-9-12No0.0000016172727155100000.048,919,361*
5113-8-13NoNo0002719282514410000.050,559,794*
5013-7-14NoNo00002921292412300000.051,451,439*
4912-9-13NoNo000003112329221020000.351,479,928*
4812-8-14NoNo00001413252919720001.750,674,952*
4712-7-15NoNo000151628281651006.049,050,000*
4611-9-14NoNo00000271930261230015.846,682,161*
4511-8-15NoNo000031024312281031.643,693,361*
4411-7-16NoNo00014152930164050.740,182,345*
4310-9-15NoNo000282233269168.836,316,074*
4210-8-16NoNo0000314303317382.832,256,898*
4110-7-17NoNo000017233626691.628,140,927*
409-9-16NoNo000031534351296.424,113,044*
399-8-17NoNo0001929412098.620,288,436*
389-7-18NoNo0000522442999.516,750,165*
378-9-17NoNo0000215433999.913,567,859*
368-8-18NoNo001104050100.010,779,802*
358-7-19NoNo00063460100.08,401,989*
347-9-18NoNo0032868100.06,411,892*
337-8-19NoNo0022276100.04,798,650*
327-7-20NoNo0011782100.03,511,462*
316-9-19NoNo001287Yes2,513,537*
306-8-20NoNo00991Yes1,764,032*
296-7-21NoNo0694Yes1,206,460*
285-9-20NoNo00496Yes805,249*
275-8-21NoNo0397Yes526,156*
265-7-22NoNo0298Yes333,428*
254-9-21NoNo0199Yes206,558*
244-8-22NoNo199Yes124,664*
234-7-23NoNo0100Yes72,884*
223-9-22NoNo0100Yes41,411*
213-8-23NoNo0100Yes22,570*
203-7-24NoNo0100Yes11,858*
193-6-25NoNo0100Yes6,100*
182-8-24NoNo0100Yes2,982*
4-17NoNo100Yes126,861*
Total:0.9%9.2%1233445556666677766523.8%999,612,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Win Championship