Minnesota Vikings Playoff Chances 2015-1

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.05 to 53.5%
2-1-0   .667

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Minnesota vs Denver+7.8*+0.5-9.0
+0.7+0.1-0.8
Green Bay vs San Francisco-0.7*+0.2+1.7
-0.1+0.0+0.2
Houston vs Atlanta+0.7*-0.3-0.7
Detroit vs Seattle+0.7+0.7-0.6
NY Giants vs Buffalo-0.6*+0.0+0.6
Dallas vs New Orleans-0.3*+0.6+0.5
St. Louis vs Arizona-0.4*+0.3+0.2
Oakland vs Chicago+0.2*+0.3-0.4
Philadelphia vs Washington+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Carolina vs Tampa Bay-0.0*+0.4+0.1
Cleveland vs San Diego-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/8100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
St. Louis vs Green Bay+1.0*-0.3-0.8
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Seattle vs Cincinnati-0.8*+0.6+1.0
-0.0+0.0+0.1
New England vs Dallas+0.4*+0.2-0.7
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Jacksonville vs Tampa Bay+0.5*+0.6-0.6
+0.0+0.1-0.0
Chicago vs Kansas City-0.3*-0.4+0.3
New Orleans vs Philadelphia+0.2*+0.4-0.3
Washington vs Atlanta+0.2*+0.3-0.2
San Francisco vs NY Giants+0.2*+0.6-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh vs San Diego-0.0*+0.2+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Minnesota finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1513-0-0In100043,513
14.512-0-1In973356
1412-1-0In96400396,527
13.511-1-1In909013,711
1311-2-0In791710302,175,723
10-1-2In871315
12.510-2-1In6328306018,027
1210-3-0100.0%45358012007,215,747
9-2-2In4632111156
11.59-3-1100.02339161201054,794
119-4-099.911312442730016,177,762
8-3-2In1430262271168
10.58-4-199.6318286351000110,164
108-5-096.21823133220400025,842,288
7-4-298.418221336192320
9.57-5-189.1021413253510100154,610
97-6-062.300614123025102000030,298,340
6-5-263.1613123126910388
8.56-6-136.302942335226100158,642
86-7-012.900616172825134100026,379,545
5-6-210.45151531281231364
7.55-7-12.8020182232249200117,317
4-6-3Out3333333
75-8-01.001001514262818710017,042,823
4-7-21.410051629241841207
6.54-8-10.100151730291540063,053
64-9-00.0000000311243122718,079,224
3-8-2Out14234018591
5.53-9-1Out00314313316324,033
53-10-00.000003133236162,727,997
2-9-2Out1150291128
4.52-10-1Out052343286,010
42-11-0Out00183655620,541
1-10-2Out33673
3.51-11-1Out32671894
31-12-0Out01138785,937
0-11-2Out1001
2.50-12-1Out49654
20-13-0Out29816,164
Total:53.5%5797131210876543211137,815,440
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/1100.0*Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Denver-1.5+0.1+1.8
Green Bay vs San Francisco+0.1-0.0-0.3
Detroit vs Seattle-0.1-0.0+0.1
Dallas vs New Orleans+0.0-0.1-0.0
Oakland vs Chicago+0.0-0.1-0.1
Cleveland vs San Diego+0.0*+0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Miami-0.0-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/8100.0*Lottery seed
St. Louis vs Green Bay-0.2+0.1+0.2
New Orleans vs Philadelphia-0.0-0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs San Diego+0.0-0.0-0.1
New England vs Dallas-0.0-0.0+0.1
Chicago vs Kansas City-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Arizona vs Detroit+0.0-0.0-0.1
San Francisco vs NY Giants-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1513-0-09910
14.512-0-19623
1412-1-08974000
13.511-1-1819901
1311-2-05821160100300
10-1-2602713
12.510-2-1402227130600
1210-3-017272968000110000
9-2-225212751111
11.59-3-16182811160119110
119-4-01101417204402163000
8-3-22131317241217101
10.58-4-1034142086023129000
108-5-001171012111131916430000
7-4-2117121012117191542
9.57-5-100231110352121139200
97-6-00001596111102015127310000
6-5-224762118231315621
8.56-6-100236041221120191031000
86-7-0000140106371317171495200000
5-6-224151612192114961
7.55-7-100201002615232417821000
4-6-36733
75-8-00010000013711161817138410000
4-7-210126121916219632
6.54-8-10001381723231672000
64-9-000000000014915192016104100
3-8-214182421195421
5.53-9-10002616252617610
53-10-0000001512212722102
2-9-21421213644
4.52-10-101519343010
42-11-000028244026
1-10-23367
3.51-11-1093555
31-12-00032572
0-11-2100
2.50-12-1496
20-13-00595
Total:23445452676644444433322221111100