Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Chances 2015-1

Lost to Baltimore 20-23, playoff odds down 12.7 to 38.5%
2-2-0   .500

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 10/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Baltimore 23 Pittsburgh 20 -11.2
-1.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Kansas City vs Cincinnati+1.5*-0.2-1.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1
NY Giants vs Buffalo+0.9*+0.3-0.9
NY Jets vs Miami-0.5+1.4+1.0
+0.0+0.1-0.0
Oakland vs Chicago-0.4+0.7+0.7
-0.0+0.1+0.1
Cleveland vs San Diego-0.3+0.6+0.4
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Houston vs Atlanta-0.2+0.6+0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Minnesota vs Denver+0.3*+0.0-0.3
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis-0.0+0.6+0.0
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Green Bay vs San Francisco-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/8100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Pittsburgh vs San Diego+6.7-1.0-12.8
+0.7+0.0-1.4
Seattle vs Cincinnati+1.6*-0.4-1.9
+0.1-0.0-0.2
Buffalo vs Tennessee-0.8+1.0+1.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0
New England vs Dallas-0.5+0.7+0.9
Cleveland vs Baltimore+0.0+0.7-0.0
+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Chicago vs Kansas City+0.3*-0.3-0.3
Denver vs Oakland+0.2*+0.0-0.3
Jacksonville vs Tampa Bay-0.1*+0.4+0.2
-0.0+0.1+0.0
Indianapolis vs Houston+0.1*+0.4-0.1
+0.0+0.1-0.0
San Francisco vs NY Giants+0.0*-0.1-0.0
St. Louis vs Green Bay+0.0*+0.4-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well Pittsburgh finishes out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TWW-L-Tplayoffs12345678910111213141516Count
1412-0-0In955094,298
13.511-0-1In9280787
1311-1-0In78211010885,803
10-0-2In1003
12.510-1-1In7124147,427
1210-2-0100.0%4343608004,255,566
9-1-2In60324425
11.59-2-1100.03243100141031,648
119-3-099.5104023220600012,186,611
8-2-2In134023115799
10.58-3-198.952827327101080,495
7-2-3In1001
108-4-089.50112691924910023,225,937
7-3-288.911299192292252
9.57-4-180.203199173016300136,588
6-3-3Out1001
97-5-042.00181041930207100031,007,758
6-4-241.405115202921720382
8.56-5-121.90371112931153000157,880
86-6-05.1003017192924123000029,772,707
5-5-25.904272026261230355
7.55-6-11.20102102532218100129,952
75-7-00.300000141426291971020,710,932
4-6-20.40121825241873233
6.54-7-10.00015173129143074,450
64-8-00.00000210253423610,374,226
3-7-2Out2143127225110
5.53-8-1Out0031635341129,828
53-9-0Out00031742383,648,039
2-8-2Out537372119
4.52-9-1Out1939517,713
42-10-0Out0022178855,273
1-9-2Out33673
3.51-10-1Out0111881,239
31-11-0Out0496120,171
2.50-11-1Out10087
20-12-0Out010018,542
Total:38.5%37956910988765432137,815,440
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 10/1100.0*Lottery seed
Baltimore 23 Pittsburgh 20 +1.8
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Kansas City vs Cincinnati-0.2+0.0+0.2
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis+0.1-0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Miami+0.0-0.1-0.0
Oakland vs Chicago-0.0-0.1+0.0
Green Bay vs San Francisco+0.0-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 10/8100.0*Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs San Diego-1.3+0.6+2.4
Seattle vs Cincinnati-0.2+0.0+0.2
Arizona vs Detroit-0.0+0.1+0.1
Indianapolis vs Houston-0.1-0.1+0.1
San Francisco vs NY Giants-0.1*+0.0+0.1
New England vs Dallas-0.0-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1412-0-08510500
13.511-0-1781480
1311-1-04929191100100
10-0-2100
12.510-1-13932232130
1210-2-01131301360070000
9-1-285228444
11.59-2-1527271691013110
119-3-01912281762015560000
8-2-213112920311327
10.58-3-10542317103019810010
7-2-3100
108-4-0001108187281120491000
7-3-2110101972811184101
9.57-4-10032176341422816400
6-3-3100
97-5-000107460481129197200000
6-4-200538148122522931
8.56-5-10031501110142623114100
86-6-00000300014132021171152100000
5-5-201323141924188431
7.55-6-1001000261523241783100
75-7-000000000151016201814842100000
4-6-2002399212315103110
6.54-7-1000138162424167200
64-8-0000000127131921171162100
3-7-21451127241112321
5.53-8-10002616252617610
53-9-00001381724241671
2-8-21626321611
4.52-9-10172035288
42-10-00001313283520
1-9-26733
3.51-10-101103751
31-11-000163162
2.50-11-11387
20-12-001090
Total:12253522336397655443332222111100