First I get a baseline by running the simulation with the current standings. Then, for each upcoming match I:

• Pretend the home team wins 1-0 and run the simulation on the remaining matches.
• Pretend the away team wins 1-0 and run the simulation on the remaining matches.
• Pretend the teams draw 0-0 and run the simulation on the remaining matches.
• Compare each team's new pretend chance of making the playoffs with the actual baseline chance to see how much it goes up or down.

The matches are ordered by total impact.