Lions Playoff Chances 2019
Beat Sunwolves 37-24, playoff odds up 16.3 to 88.4%
18 points 4-0 2 0
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 3/22 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Sunwolves 24 Lions 37 | +9.2 | +7.8 | +0.8 | |||
| Waratahs 20 Crusaders 12 | -1.2 | +0.2 | -0.0 | |||
| Bulls 20 Chiefs 56 | +0.8 | +3.6 | +0.2 | |||
| Sharks 28 Rebels 14 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.0 | |||
| Blues 33 Highlanders 26 | +0.6 | +0.4 | ||||
| Hurricanes 34 Stormers 28 | +0.3 | +0.0 | ||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||
| Reds vs Brumbies | +0.3+0.3-0.6 | +0.1+0.1-0.2 | ||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||
| Week of 3/29 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Waratahs vs Sunwolves | -0.2+0.4+0.8 | -0.1+0.2+0.3 | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | |||
| Reds vs Rebels | +0.2-0.7-0.2 | +0.2-0.2-0.2 | +0.0-0.1-0.0 | |||
| Jaguares vs Chiefs | -0.1+0.0+0.3 | -0.1*-0.0+0.3 | ||||
| Blues vs Stormers | -0.1+0.2+0.1 | +2.4+0.2-3.0 | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | |||
| Sharks vs Bulls | +0.1-0.2-0.2 | -0.3+0.8+0.6 | ||||
| Hurricanes vs Crusaders | -0.0+0.1+0.1 | -0.3+1.6+0.5 | -0.0+0.1+0.0 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Lions finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Home | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | OT | L | D | playoffs | Quarterfinal | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | Count | ||||||
| 56 | 10 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | In | Yes | 100 | 90,136,668 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 54 | 9 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | In | Yes | 99 | 0 | 0 | 13,718,202 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 52 | 9 | - | 0 | 1 | 0 | In | Yes | 94 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 804,641,181 | |||||||||||||||||
| 8 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | In | Yes | 96 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1,006,269 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 50 | 8 | - | 0 | 1 | 1 | In | 100.0 | % | 89 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 116,214,368 | |||||||||||||||
| 7 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | In | Yes | 87 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 43,197 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 48 | 8 | - | 0 | 2 | 0 | In | 100.0 | 63 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3,295,788,540 | |||||||||||||||
| 7 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | In | 100.0 | 66 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7,354,392 | |||||||||||||||||
| 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | In | 99.9 | 72 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1,199 | |||||||||||||||||
| 46 | 7 | - | 0 | 2 | 1 | In | 99.8 | 50 | 39 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 410,487,299 | |||||||||||||||
| 6 | - | 0 | 1 | 3 | In | 99.7 | 46 | 41 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 266,831 | ||||||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 5 | In | Yes | 47 | 37 | 11 | 5 | 19 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 44 | 7 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 | In | 96.8 | 17 | 54 | 10 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7,501,181,197 | ||||||||||||||
| 6 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | In | 96.7 | 18 | 50 | 10 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22,088,126 | |||||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 0 | 1 | 4 | In | 97.4 | 21 | 47 | 9 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 6,307 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 42 | 6 | - | 0 | 3 | 1 | In | 90.5 | 7 | 39 | 19 | 25 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 794,668,304 | |||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 0 | 2 | 3 | In | 88.8 | 6 | 37 | 20 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 670,101 | |||||||||||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | 1 | 5 | In | 86.7 | 9 | 37 | 21 | 20 | 12 | 1 | 90 | ||||||||||||||||
| 40 | 6 | - | 0 | 4 | 0 | 100.0 | % | 63.8 | 1 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10,523,306,563 | |||||||||||
| 5 | - | 0 | 3 | 2 | 100.0 | 61.5 | 0 | 17 | 22 | 22 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35,682,217 | |||||||||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | 2 | 4 | In | 64.8 | 1 | 19 | 22 | 23 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 12,443 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 38 | 5 | - | 0 | 4 | 1 | 100.0 | 36.9 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 13 | 36 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 931,151,473 | |||||||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | 3 | 3 | 100.0 | 33.3 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 11 | 37 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 880,346 | |||||||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 2 | 5 | In | 31.3 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 7 | 37 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 166 | ||||||||||||||
| 36 | 5 | - | 0 | 5 | 0 | 99.6 | 12.2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 23 | 39 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9,540,776,340 | ||||||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | 4 | 2 | 99.5 | 9.9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 20 | 39 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33,994,999 | |||||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 3 | 4 | 99.5 | 11.0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 20 | 39 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 12,879 | ||||||||||||||
| 34 | 4 | - | 0 | 5 | 1 | 92.4 | 2.8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 38 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 687,336,961 | ||||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 4 | 3 | 90.8 | 2.3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 38 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 654,332 | ||||||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 3 | 5 | 91.6 | 2.5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 119 | ||||||||||||||
| 32 | 4 | - | 0 | 6 | 0 | 67.1 | 0.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 37 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5,686,300,110 | |||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 5 | 2 | 60.2 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 37 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19,640,655 | ||||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 4 | 4 | 59.9 | 0.6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 36 | 30 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 6,920 | * | ||||||||||||
| 30 | 3 | - | 0 | 6 | 1 | 18.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 35 | 33 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 321,041,368 | ||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 5 | 3 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 34 | 34 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 278,499 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 4 | 5 | 18.6 | No | 9 | 9 | 40 | 35 | 7 | 43 | |||||||||||||||||
| 28 | 3 | - | 0 | 7 | 0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 38 | 29 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2,210,445,279 | |||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 6 | 2 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 36 | 33 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6,751,028 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 5 | 4 | 2.3 | No | 0 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 33 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1,936 | ||||||||||||||
| 26 | 2 | - | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 91,910,273 | ||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0.1 | No | 0 | 2 | 13 | 36 | 36 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 62,788 | * | |||||||||||||
| 24 | 2 | - | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 41 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 538,866,805 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 42 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 1,267,194 | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 6 | 4 | Out | No | 1 | 17 | 44 | 31 | 7 | 224 | |||||||||||||||||
| 22 | 1 | - | 0 | 8 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 45 | 22 | 2 | 14,700,581 | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 7 | 3 | Out | No | 0 | 4 | 23 | 46 | 25 | 2 | 5,874 | ||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 1 | - | 0 | 9 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 42 | 36 | 7 | 74,726,861 | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 8 | 2 | Out | No | 0 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 40 | 10 | 99,931 | ||||||||||||||||
| 18 | 0 | - | 0 | 9 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 53 | 20 | 1,005,654 | |||||||||||||||
| 16 | 0 | - | 0 | 10 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 10 | 47 | 42 | 11,757,719 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 88.4 | % | 48.0 | % | 11 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43,790,950,870 | |||||||||
* Row combines multiple less frequent records.
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Updated Saturday, 2023-11-11 11:38 AM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
