Crusaders Playoff Chances 2019
Lost to Waratahs 12-20, playoff odds down 2.2 to 97%
19 points 4-0 1 1
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 3/22 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Waratahs 20 Crusaders 12 | -0.7 | -5.7 | -0.4 | |||
| Bulls 20 Chiefs 56 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +0.1 | |||
| Sunwolves 24 Lions 37 | -0.1 | -0.5 | ||||
| Sharks 28 Rebels 14 | -0.1 | |||||
| Blues 33 Highlanders 26 | +0.9 | +0.0 | ||||
| Hurricanes 34 Stormers 28 | -0.6 | -0.1 | ||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||
| Reds vs Brumbies | +0.1+0.0-0.2 | +0.2+0.1-0.4 | ||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||
| Week of 3/29 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Hurricanes vs Crusaders | -1.0+0.3+2.2 | -6.6+1.6+13.7 | -0.5+0.2+1.1 | |||
| Waratahs vs Sunwolves | -0.1-0.0+0.3 | -0.2*-0.0+0.7 | ||||
| Blues vs Stormers | +0.0-0.3+0.0 | +0.9-1.1-1.1 | ||||
| Jaguares vs Chiefs | -0.0+0.1+0.1 | -0.0+0.1+0.1 | ||||
| Reds vs Rebels | +0.4+0.0-0.4 | |||||
| Sharks vs Bulls | +0.1+0.3-0.2 | |||||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Crusaders finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Home | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | OT | L | D | playoffs | Quarterfinal | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | Count | ||||||
| 58 | 10 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | In | Yes | 100 | 341,073,482 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 56 | 9 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | In | Yes | 100 | 0 | 0 | 47,619,785 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 54 | 9 | - | 0 | 1 | 0 | In | Yes | 98 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2,329,913,300 | |||||||||||||||||
| 8 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | In | Yes | 98 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3,016,074 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 52 | 8 | - | 0 | 1 | 1 | In | 100.0 | % | 93 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 289,415,418 | |||||||||||||||
| 7 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | In | Yes | 93 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 112,313 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 50 | 8 | - | 0 | 2 | 0 | In | 100.0 | 84 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 6,740,951,984 | ||||||||||||||||
| 7 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | In | 100.0 | 80 | 6 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 15,787,324 | |||||||||||||||||
| 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | In | Yes | 84 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 2,616 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 48 | 7 | - | 0 | 2 | 1 | In | 99.9 | 59 | 20 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 722,293,063 | |||||||||||||||
| 6 | - | 0 | 1 | 3 | In | 99.9 | 59 | 17 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 496,817 | |||||||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 5 | In | Yes | 67 | 13 | 21 | 48 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 46 | 7 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 | In | 99.6 | 43 | 22 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10,683,010,708 | ||||||||||||||
| 6 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | In | 99.3 | 34 | 22 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33,525,966 | |||||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 0 | 1 | 4 | In | 99.1 | 36 | 24 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 9,988 | |||||||||||||||||
| 44 | 6 | - | 0 | 3 | 1 | In | 94.1 | 12 | 28 | 10 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 975,185,895 | |||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 0 | 2 | 3 | In | 94.0 | 12 | 26 | 9 | 47 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 880,168 | |||||||||||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | 1 | 5 | In | 98.4 | 16 | 27 | 5 | 52 | 2 | 128 | |||||||||||||||||
| 42 | 6 | - | 0 | 4 | 0 | 100.0 | % | 86.0 | 5 | 20 | 10 | 50 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10,327,289,627 | |||||||||||
| 5 | - | 0 | 3 | 2 | In | 79.9 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 54 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 37,856,212 | ||||||||||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | 2 | 4 | In | 79.1 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 51 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 14,275 | * | ||||||||||||||
| 40 | 5 | - | 0 | 4 | 1 | 100.0 | 44.5 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 25 | 36 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 789,893,457 | |||||||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | 3 | 3 | 100.0 | 42.6 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 38 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 809,670 | |||||||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 2 | 5 | In | 50.0 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 30 | 19 | 1 | 134 | ||||||||||||||||
| 38 | 5 | - | 0 | 5 | 0 | 100.0 | 26.2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 37 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6,413,687,978 | ||||||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | 4 | 2 | 99.9 | 17.3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 35 | 34 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25,019,422 | ||||||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 3 | 4 | 99.9 | 16.0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 32 | 36 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 10,349 | * | |||||||||||||
| 36 | 4 | - | 0 | 5 | 1 | 94.8 | 3.9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 37 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 401,087,869 | |||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 4 | 3 | 93.9 | 3.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 37 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 419,579 | ||||||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 3 | 5 | 95.5 | 3.0 | 3 | 9 | 31 | 34 | 18 | 4 | 67 | ||||||||||||||||
| 34 | 4 | - | 0 | 6 | 0 | 84.1 | 1.4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 34 | 33 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2,612,785,738 | |||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 5 | 2 | 76.6 | 0.6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 37 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9,983,175 | |||||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 4 | 4 | 72.0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 35 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 3,936 | * | ||||||||||||
| 32 | 3 | - | 0 | 6 | 1 | 23.5 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 37 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 128,620,430 | ||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 5 | 3 | 20.0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 36 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 123,397 | ||||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 4 | 5 | 21.7 | No | 4 | 17 | 48 | 22 | 9 | 23 | |||||||||||||||||
| 30 | 3 | - | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 38 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 694,410,449 | |||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 6 | 2 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 39 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2,366,096 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | No | 4 | 20 | 37 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 757 | ||||||||||||||||
| 28 | 2 | - | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 38 | 32 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 25,287,899 | ||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0.1 | No | 0 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 35 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 19,344 | ||||||||||||||
| 26 | 2 | - | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 41 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 115,956,063 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 42 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 305,637 | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 6 | 4 | Out | No | 7 | 30 | 33 | 28 | 2 | 60 | |||||||||||||||||
| 24 | 1 | - | 0 | 8 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 46 | 17 | 1 | 2,787,851 | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 7 | 3 | Out | No | 0 | 4 | 29 | 45 | 21 | 1 | 1,257 | ||||||||||||||||
| 22 | 1 | - | 0 | 9 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 45 | 33 | 3 | 11,047,513 | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 8 | 2 | Out | No | 0 | 2 | 15 | 45 | 35 | 4 | 16,733 | ||||||||||||||||
| 20 | 0 | - | 0 | 9 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 3 | 28 | 51 | 17 | 131,500 | ||||||||||||||||
| 18 | 0 | - | 0 | 10 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 1 | 15 | 58 | 26 | 7,719,296 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 97.0 | % | 75.5 | % | 33 | 12 | 5 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43,790,950,870 | |||||||||
* Row combines multiple less frequent records.
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Updated Saturday, 2023-11-11 11:38 AM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
