"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 4/28100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Average seed
Reds vs Waratahs+6.2-4.1-10.5
+6.2-4.1-10.5
+1.1-0.8-1.8
Brumbies vs Blues-3.1+1.6+5.3
-3.1+1.6+5.3
-0.2+0.1+0.4
Force vs Lions-2.4-1.8+0.6
-2.4-1.8+0.6
-0.3-0.3+0.1
Kings vs Rebels+0.8+0.5-1.4
+0.8+0.5-1.4
+0.1+0.0-0.1
Cheetahs vs Crusaders-0.2-0.1+0.0
Chiefs vs Sunwolves+0.0-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 5/5100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Average seed
Chiefs vs Reds-1.6+6.1+16.8
-1.6+6.1+16.8
-0.2+0.8+2.4
Sharks vs Force+0.5-1.8-2.5
+0.5-1.8-2.5
+0.1-0.3-0.3
Rebels vs Lions-2.1+0.1+0.4
-2.1+0.1+0.4
-0.3+0.0+0.1
Waratahs vs Blues-1.2+0.4+1.2
-1.2+0.4+1.2
-0.1+0.0+0.2
Jaguares vs Sunwolves+0.0-0.0-0.1
Cheetahs vs Highlanders-0.1-0.1+0.1
Bulls vs Crusaders-0.2-0.1+0.0

What If

Chances based on how well the Reds finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inHomeChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-OTLDplayoffsQuarterfinal123456789101112131415161718Count
367-000100.0%99.9%04456000006,777,196
346-00199.799.71684000002,202,403
326-01098.198.01484001100105,309,979
5-00297.297.21484001200385,602
305-01194.994.8292001310035,172,545
4-00392.091.93890261033,517
285-02085.185.1283001103000788,060,998
4-01278.978.9277011460004,363,040
3-00480.280.21791136001,499
264-02169.269.206900101550000185,886,246
3-01361.361.3061013196100266,522
2-00560.760.7612311556
244-03046.046.00460011271320002,576,020,161
3-02234.034.00340113319300016,355,163
2-01436.136.10360931204008,743
223-03120.720.721011634225000436,252,138
2-02314.314.31401153625710680,955
1-0159.09.09117352881156
203-0406.66.6700931351530004,270,252,613
2-0322.72.730627382150026,427,882
1-0243.03.030627372150013,444
0-016OutNo1001
182-0410.50.51004213828810502,306,311
1-0330.20.20031737321010684,921
0-025OutNo3164126131105
162-0500.00.000018283921403,743,374,479
1-0420.00.000052441255019,028,577
0-034OutNo005244225506,446
141-051OutNo0032144293276,868,673
0-043OutNo021744343233,125
121-060OutNo008374861,648,932,068
0-052OutNo007365074,988,200
100-061OutNo08563658,225,441
80-070OutNo25542288,642,451
Total:16.8%16.8%001700003813141313108214,997,761,656
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs