Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsHome QuarterfinalChance will finish regular season at seedRelegated
9/10PGW-OTLDGD%Change%Change1234567Avg.Change%ChangeRPISunday
OtagoWTasman 30-27245-0005599.9%+0.792.9%+10.2831331001.2+0.24No-0.04Otago
Canterbury1523-0008988.2+1.066.0-0.4412215107412.4+0.050.3%+0.02Hawke’s BayCanterbury
Wellington1313-010-882.4-1.633.2-0.5832241812513.1-0.082.1+0.23Wellington
Taranaki1413-0104675.1+2.143.8-0.01820201714923.2+0.080.9+0.18Taranaki
ManawatuLNorth Harbour 25-291112-020-374.4-6.823.7-6.5423252217723.5-0.414.6+0.710Manawatu
Auckland1413-0101873.7+2.342.8+0.316212017141033.3+0.081.0+0.17WaikatoAuckland
Waikato1022-0101560.7+2.330.8-0.111151718171573.9+0.094.2+0.35at AucklandWaikato
Counties Manukau1212-0202960.4+0.530.0-0.311151618171753.9+0.022.7+0.39Counties Manukau
Bay of Plenty911-0301360.4-1.712.1+0.32172021211354.0-0.039.6+0.213Bay of Plenty
North HarbourWManawatu 29-25912-020-860.4+13.411.5+4.43132123201364.1+0.469.9-8.96North Harbour
TasmanLOtago 27-30912-020-2434.9-9.111.3-7.42611162127175.0-0.3810.6+1.41Tasman
Southland210-040-7713.5-2.90.6-0.101481628435.9-0.1253.7+1.911Southland
Northland40-050-799.1-1.00.1-0.000261433446.1-0.0754.8+2.712Northland
Hawke’s Bay310-040-667.1+0.81.1+0.00124919656.4+0.0645.7+0.914at CanterburyHawke’s Bay

Ending season with Ranfurly Shield chances:
Canterbury 25.3%
Waikato 21.0
Taranaki 11.9
Bay of Plenty 11.0
North Harbour 10.2
Auckland 8.1
Manawatu 3.0
Otago 2.8
Tasman: 2.2
Wellington 1.7
Hawke’s Bay 1.6
Southland 0.9
Counties Manukau 0.0
Northland: 0.0

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 9/8
Taranaki 30 Southland 14
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago-0.7
Canterbury-1.3
-1.2
-0.1
Wellington+2.2
-1.0
-0.6
+0.1
Taranaki+12.4
+12.1
-3.1
+0.5
Manawatu+1.7
-1.1
-0.4
+0.1
Auckland-2.2
-1.4
-0.2
-0.1
Waikato-2.7
-1.1
-0.4
-0.1
Counties Manukau-2.4
-1.1
-0.4
-0.1
Bay of Plenty+2.2
-0.4
-1.5
+0.1
North Harbour+2.7
-0.5
-1.2
+0.1
Tasman-2.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.1
Southland-10.7
-2.5
+12.9
-0.4
Northland+1.8
-0.2
-2.0
+0.1
Hawke’s Bay-0.9
-2.2
Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury+1.2
+0.2
+0.1
Wellington+9.6
+11.9
-3.7
+0.5
Taranaki+2.1
+0.4
+0.1
Manawatu-1.3
+0.5
-0.1
Auckland+2.2
+0.5
+0.1
Waikato+2.4
+0.4
+0.1
Counties Manukau-11.5
-14.2
+1.8
-0.5
Bay of Plenty-2.1
-0.1
North Harbour-2.3
+0.4
-0.1
Tasman+2.8
+0.2
+0.1
Southland-1.7
+0.6
Northland-2.0
+0.2
-0.1
Hawke’s Bay+0.9
+0.3
North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago+0.7
Canterbury+0.8
Wellington-1.3
+0.6
+0.2
Taranaki+1.1
Manawatu-11.1
-12.2
+3.1
-0.5
Auckland+1.1
Waikato+0.9
+0.3
Counties Manukau+0.6
+0.2
Bay of Plenty-1.9
+0.5
+0.5
North Harbour+15.1
+5.2
-9.1
+0.6
Tasman+0.6
+0.4
Southland-0.4
+1.3
-0.0
Northland-0.3
+1.3
Hawke’s Bay+1.6
Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago-0.2
Canterbury-0.4
Wellington-0.2
-0.2
Taranaki-0.3
Manawatu-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
Auckland-0.3
Waikato-0.3
Counties Manukau-0.3
Bay of Plenty+14.8
+4.2
-12.1
+0.6
North Harbour-0.4
-0.5
Tasman-0.3
Southland-0.3
-0.8
Northland-13.7
-1.6
+15.2
-0.6
Hawke’s Bay-0.9
Otago 30 Tasman 27
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago+0.7
+9.9
No
+0.2
Canterbury+1.4
+0.4
+0.1
Wellington-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
Taranaki+2.6
+0.2
+0.1
Manawatu-0.2
-0.1
Auckland+2.6
+0.1
Waikato+2.8
+0.2
-0.2
+0.1
Counties Manukau+2.9
-0.3
+0.1
Bay of Plenty-0.2
-0.5
North Harbour-0.6
Tasman-13.2
-10.3
+5.3
-0.5
Southland-1.0
Northland-1.5
Hawke’s Bay+0.9
-0.8
+0.1
Auckland vs WaikatoIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Auckland87.074.460.3
58.9*42.826.7
0.10.61.9
2.73.34.0
Waikato45.7*60.775.6
17.329.744.5
7.33.51.1
4.53.93.2
Counties Manukau vs TaranakiHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Taranaki61.676.488.5
28.144.359.5
1.70.50.0
3.93.22.6
Counties Manukau75.862.145.0
44.528.215.7
0.51.74.9
3.23.94.5
Canterbury vs Hawke’s BayHomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury95.188.481.2
78.464.653.6
0.00.10.7
1.92.42.8
Southland50.651.956.9
Northland50.957.358.5
Hawke’s Bay1.94.612.5
0.00.42.1
59.743.931.7
6.76.46.1
Week of 9/15
Tasman vs NorthlandIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Auckland71.172.176.2
42.042.343.7
0.81.21.1
3.43.43.2
Waikato57.959.263.5
30.030.431.7
3.84.84.6
4.03.93.8
Counties Manukau57.362.563.5
29.430.630.7
2.22.33.2
4.03.83.8
Tasman48.037.021.7
18.611.54.1
3.18.018.3
4.44.95.5
Northland3.19.415.1
No0.00.2
71.156.238.4
6.46.05.8
Hawke’s Bay6.37.58.0
43.142.948.4
6.56.36.3
Manawatu vs CanterburyHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury81.788.394.6
52.164.679.9
0.70.10.0
2.82.41.9
Manawatu85.474.763.3
36.519.411.2
1.23.18.1
3.13.54.0
Bay of Plenty57.460.963.4
12.412.811.9
4.14.03.9
North Harbour57.160.763.6
11.712.011.3
10.1*9.99.6
4.24.14.0
Waikato vs TaranakiHomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Taranaki61.875.988.3
28.343.759.4
1.70.50.0
3.93.22.6
Waikato75.660.345.8
44.429.517.3
1.23.57.3
3.23.94.5
Wellington vs Bay of PlentyHomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Wellington93.484.871.2
48.034.618.4
0.31.64.0
2.63.13.7
Bay of Plenty45.161.475.6
3.912.420.4
15.78.73.4
4.64.03.4
Auckland vs Counties ManukauHomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Auckland87.275.460.0
59.143.726.5
0.10.61.9
2.73.24.0
Counties Manukau45.061.975.7
15.628.044.5
4.91.70.5
4.53.93.2
Southland vs Bay of PlentyHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Bay of Plenty45.860.275.0
4.612.419.7
16.68.92.5
4.64.13.5
Southland22.610.14.5
1.20.10.0
38.753.668.7
5.56.06.4
Otago vs North HarbourHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago98.294.087.4
1.11.21.4
Manawatu77.773.771.0
24.123.923.4
4.34.75.0
3.43.53.6
Bay of Plenty64.059.856.8
9.19.710.0
3.94.14.1
North Harbour47.161.073.6
3.911.419.2
16.09.33.8
4.64.13.6
Southland vs Hawke’s BayHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Southland20.89.96.4
1.20.10.0
36.456.570.9
5.66.16.3
Hawke’s Bay2.44.712.0
0.00.52.1
63.541.428.0
6.76.46.1

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Thank you Johkey3 for adding this league.