Tasman Playoff Chances 2016 50/50
Lost to Otago 27-30, playoff odds down 9.1 to 34.9%
9 points 2-0 2 0
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 9/8 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Otago 30 Tasman 27 | -13.2 | -10.3 | +5.3 | -0.5 | ||||
| Taranaki 30 Southland 14 | -2.8 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.1 | ||||
| Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28 | +2.8 | +0.2 | +0.1 | |||||
| North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25 | +0.6 | +0.4 | ||||||
| Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25 | -0.3 | -0.1 | ||||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||||
| Auckland vs Waikato | +0.4+2.7-0.5 | -0.2+1.2+0.1 | -0.2-0.1+0.2 | +0.0+0.1-0.0 | ||||
| Canterbury vs Hawke’s Bay | -0.8+0.1+0.8 | -0.7+0.2+0.7 | -1.3+0.6+1.3 | |||||
| Counties Manukau vs Taranaki | -0.6-0.8+0.6 | +0.3+0.2-0.3 | +0.1+0.1-0.1 | |||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||||
| Week of 9/15 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tasman vs Northland | +13.1+2.1-13.2 | +7.2+0.1-7.2 | -7.5-2.7+7.6 | +0.5+0.1-0.5 | ||||
| Waikato vs Taranaki | -0.5+2.6+0.4 | +0.1+1.1-0.1 | +0.2-0.1-0.2 | -0.0+0.1+0.0 | ||||
| Manawatu vs Canterbury | +1.4+0.2-1.5 | +0.1+0.4-0.1 | +0.3*+0.0-0.3 | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | ||||
| Southland vs Hawke’s Bay | +0.7-0.2-0.7 | -0.1-0.1+0.1 | +0.1-0.0-0.1 | |||||
| Auckland vs Counties Manukau | +0.6-0.6-0.6 | -0.3+0.3+0.3 | -0.1+0.1+0.1 | |||||
| Southland vs Bay of Plenty | +0.5+0.2-0.5 | +0.8-0.7-0.8 | ||||||
| Wellington vs Bay of Plenty | -0.3+0.1+0.3 | -0.3+0.2+0.3 | ||||||
| Otago vs North Harbour | +0.0-0.1-0.0 | -0.4+0.1+0.4 | ||||||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Tasman finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Home | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | OT | L | D | playoffs | Quarterfinal | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Relegated | Count | |||||||
| 32 | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | In | 100.0 | % | 63 | 34 | 3 | 0 | No | 3,011,523 | |||||||||
| 30 | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | In | 99.3 | 49 | 44 | 7 | 0 | No | 780,708 | ||||||||||
| 28 | 5 | - | 0 | 1 | 0 | 99.8 | % | 86.4 | 14 | 46 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 0 | No | 17,836,885 | |||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | 99.9 | 87.8 | 15 | 47 | 33 | 5 | 0 | No | 85,718 | ||||||||||
| 26 | 4 | - | 0 | 1 | 1 | 98.8 | 54.2 | 6 | 34 | 44 | 15 | 1 | 0 | No | 3,901,772 | ||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | 99.1 | 56.1 | 6 | 35 | 43 | 15 | 1 | 0 | No | 4,913 | |||||||||
| 24 | 4 | - | 0 | 2 | 0 | 81.2 | 6.9 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 46 | 18 | 1 | 0 | No | 44,597,357 | |||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | 81.1 | 7.1 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 45 | 18 | 1 | 0 | No | 342,931 | ||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | 85.0 | 7.2 | 4 | 37 | 44 | 14 | 1 | No | 167 | ||||||||||
| 22 | 3 | - | 0 | 2 | 1 | 56.9 | 0.4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 42 | 36 | 7 | 0 | No | 7,806,588 | |||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 1 | 3 | 57.6 | 0.4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 43 | 36 | 7 | 0 | No | 14,895 | ||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 0 | 5 | 87.5 | No | 25 | 63 | 13 | No | 8 | ||||||||||||
| 20 | 3 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14.6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 48 | 34 | 3 | 0.0 | % | 59,449,841 | |||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13.7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 47 | 36 | 3 | 0.0 | 511,927 | |||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12.0 | No | 1 | 10 | 42 | 42 | 4 | No | 334 | ||||||||||
| 18 | 2 | - | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3.8 | No | 0 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 52 | 13 | 0.3 | 7,813,789 | ||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3.8 | No | 0 | 4 | 32 | 52 | 12 | 0.3 | 14,901 | ||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 5 | Out | No | 40 | 60 | No | 5 | |||||||||||||
| 16 | 2 | - | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.2 | No | 0 | 0 | 10 | 58 | 32 | 7.8 | 44,590,501 | |||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.1 | No | 0 | 8 | 57 | 35 | 8.7 | 341,512 | |||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 4 | Out | No | 6 | 59 | 36 | 5.9 | 152 | ||||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | - | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 2 | 39 | 58 | 42.2 | 3,907,289 | ||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 2 | 41 | 57 | 41.4 | 5,009 | |||||||||||
| 12 | 1 | - | 0 | 5 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 24 | 76 | 78.4 | 17,831,859 | |||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 4 | 2 | Out | No | 0 | 21 | 79 | 80.7 | 85,346 | ||||||||||||
| 10 | 0 | - | 0 | 5 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 9 | 91 | 96.9 | 781,543 | |||||||||||
| 8 | 0 | - | 0 | 6 | 0 | Out | No | 3 | 97 | 99.8 | 3,010,751 | ||||||||||||
| Total: | 34.9 | % | 11.3 | % | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 27 | 17 | 10.6 | % | 216,728,224 | |||||||||
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Updated Saturday, 2023-11-11 11:37 AM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
