Southland Playoff Chances 2016Did not play, playoff odds down 2.6 to 3.2% 2 points 0-0 4 0 How are these numbers calculated? Big GamesHow we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain Week of 9/8 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed | Taranaki 30 Southland 14 | -4.0 | | -0.1 | | +4.5 | | -0.1 | | North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25 | -1.2 | | | | +0.8 | | -0.1 | | Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25 | -0.5 | | | | -1.6 | | | | Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28 | -0.3 | | | | | | | | If winner is:HomeDrawAway | Canterbury vs Hawke’s Bay | | | | | -1.2+1.2+13.5 | | | | Counties Manukau vs Taranaki | | | | | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | | | | | If winner is:HomeDrawAway | Week of 9/15 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed | Southland vs Bay of Plenty | +4.1-0.9-2.6 | | | | -18.4-6.4+11.8 | | +0.4-0.0-0.2 | | Southland vs Hawke’s Bay | +1.8-1.5-2.4 | | | | -20.2+3.9+26.5 | | +0.2-0.1-0.2 | | Otago vs North Harbour | +0.2-1.1-1.3 | | | | -0.0+0.2+0.2 | | | | Wellington vs Bay of Plenty | +0.2-0.9-0.9 | | | | -0.4+1.2+1.3 | | +0.0-0.1-0.1 | | Manawatu vs Canterbury | -0.8+0.1+0.4 | | | | +0.1*+0.0-0.1 | | | | Tasman vs Northland | +0.0-0.0-0.1 | | | | -1.4+3.7+8.7 | | +0.0-0.1-0.2 | | Auckland vs Counties Manukau | | | | | -0.0+0.1+0.1 | | | | Waikato vs Taranaki | | | | | +0.0+0.1-0.0 | | | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know. What IfChances based on how well the Southland finish out the regular season. Explain | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | If finish: | Chance in | Home | Chance will finish regular season at seed | | | TP | W | - | OT | | L | | D | playoffs | Quarterfinal | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Relegated | Count | | | | | | | | | | | | | 24 | | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.9 | % | 16.2 | % | 0 | 34 | 58 | 8 | 0 | | | No | 455,331 | | 22 | | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 97.5 | | 0.3 | | 0 | 9 | 62 | 27 | 2 | 0 | | No | 187,260 | | 20 | | 5 | - | 0 | 1 | 0 | 87.6 | | 0.0 | | | 2 | 37 | 49 | 12 | 0 | | No | 6,556,851 | | | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | 83.3 | | No | | 1 | 32 | 50 | 16 | 0 | | No | 40,572 | | 18 | | 4 | - | 0 | 1 | 1 | 55.1 | | No | | 0 | 11 | 44 | 40 | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | % | 2,791,305 | | | 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | 60.1 | | No | | 0 | 14 | 46 | 36 | 4 | | No | 4,288 | | 16 | | 4 | - | 0 | 2 | 0 | 27.2 | | No | | 0 | 2 | 25 | 58 | 15 | 0 | 0.0 | | 47,387,413 | | | 3 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | 21.4 | | No | | 0 | 1 | 20 | 59 | 20 | 0 | 0.0 | | 434,060 | | | 2 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | 20.3 | | No | | | 1 | 19 | 58 | 22 | | No | 222 | | 14 | | 3 | - | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4.7 | | No | | | 0 | 5 | 45 | 50 | 0 | 0.6 | | 14,299,625 | | | 2 | - | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5.9 | | No | | | 0 | 6 | 48 | 46 | 0 | 0.7 | | 30,790 | | | 1 | - | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18.2 | | No | | | | 18 | 55 | 27 | | No | 11 | | 12 | | 3 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.6 | | No | | | 0 | 1 | 30 | 68 | 1 | 5.3 | | 154,664,139 | | | 2 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.3 | | No | | | 0 | 0 | 23 | 74 | 2 | 6.5 | | 1,464,653 | | | 1 | - | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.2 | | No | | | | 0 | 16 | 80 | 4 | 9.0 | | 984 | | 10 | | 2 | - | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | | No | | | | 0 | 6 | 85 | 9 | 21.8 | | 30,258,213 | | | 1 | - | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | | No | | | | 0 | 7 | 83 | 10 | 26.6 | | 60,666 | | | 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 5 | Out | No | | | | | | 100 | | 33.3 | | 3 | | 8 | | 2 | - | 0 | 4 | 0 | Out | No | | | | | 2 | 78 | 19 | 54.6 | | 229,616,718 | | | 1 | - | 0 | 3 | 2 | Out | No | | | | | 1 | 74 | 25 | 57.7 | | 1,805,411 | | | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 4 | Out | No | | | | | | 71 | 29 | 59.7 | | 921 | | 6 | | 1 | - | 0 | 4 | 1 | Out | No | | | | | | 51 | 49 | 81.7 | | 26,060,190 | | | 0 | - | 0 | 3 | 3 | Out | No | | | | | | 46 | 54 | 87.2 | | 33,696 | | 4 | | 1 | - | 0 | 5 | 0 | Out | No | | | | | | 24 | 76 | Yes | 146,246,388 | | | 0 | - | 0 | 4 | 2 | Out | No | | | | | | 13 | 87 | 98.9 | | 693,075 | | 0 | -2 | | Out | No | | | | | | | 100 | Yes | 39,834,275 | * | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | 3.2 | % | 0.0 | % | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 31 | 49.7 | % | 702,927,060 | |
* Row combines multiple less frequent records. Chance Will Make Playoffs
LotteryYe of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds. Big GamesWeek of 9/8 | 100.0* | Lottery seed | Taranaki 30 Southland 14 | +0.3 | | North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25 | +0.1 | | If winner is:HomeDrawAway | Canterbury vs Hawke’s Bay | -0.0+0.0+0.2 | | | If winner is:HomeDrawAway | Week of 9/15 | 100.0* | Lottery seed | Southland vs Hawke’s Bay | -0.5+0.2+0.7 | | Southland vs Bay of Plenty | -0.7-0.1+0.4 | | Tasman vs Northland | -0.0+0.1+0.2 | | Wellington vs Bay of Plenty | -0.0+0.1+0.1 | | Otago vs North Harbour | -0.0+0.0+0.1 | |
What If | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | TP | W | - | OT | | L | | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 24 | | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 0 | 1 | 15 | 40 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | 22 | | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | | | 0 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | | | | 20 | | 5 | - | 0 | 1 | 0 | | | | 0 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 39 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | | | | | 0 | 6 | 37 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 0 | | | | 18 | | 4 | - | 0 | 1 | 1 | | | | | 0 | 0 | 12 | 43 | 11 | 23 | 11 | 1 | 0 | | | 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | | | | | | 0 | 15 | 45 | 11 | 21 | 8 | 0 | | | 16 | | 4 | - | 0 | 2 | 0 | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 25 | 5 | 29 | 33 | 6 | 0 | | | 3 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 29 | 37 | 8 | 0 | | | 2 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | | | | | | | 1 | 19 | 4 | 27 | 38 | 11 | | | 14 | | 3 | - | 0 | 2 | 1 | | | | | | | 0 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 38 | 1 | 0 | | 2 | - | 0 | 1 | 3 | | | | | | | 0 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 46 | 35 | 1 | | | 1 | - | 0 | 0 | 5 | | | | | | | | 18 | | 9 | 73 | | | | 12 | | 3 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 61 | 5 | 0 | | 2 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 66 | 6 | 0 | | 1 | - | 0 | 1 | 4 | | | | | | | | 0 | | 2 | 19 | 70 | 9 | 0 | 10 | | 2 | - | 0 | 3 | 1 | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | 6 | 72 | 21 | 1 | | 1 | - | 0 | 2 | 3 | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | 6 | 67 | 25 | 2 | | 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | 67 | 33 | | 8 | | 2 | - | 0 | 4 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 45 | 47 | 8 | | 1 | - | 0 | 3 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 42 | 48 | 10 | | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | | 40 | 47 | 13 | 6 | | 1 | - | 0 | 4 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 18 | 54 | 28 | | 0 | - | 0 | 3 | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | | 13 | 48 | 39 | 4 | | 1 | - | 0 | 5 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 33 | 67 | | 0 | - | 0 | 4 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 22 | 77 | 0 | -2 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 33 | 26 | 23 |
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