"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsHome QuarterfinalChance will finish regular season at seedRelegated
9/10PGW-OTLDGD%Change%Change1234567Avg.Change%ChangeRPIStrengthSunday
Canterbury1513-0008996.9%+0.283.5%+0.163201052101.7+0.010.0%2.710Hawke’s BayCanterbury
Auckland143-0101881.4+2.446.0+1.61328231712603.1+0.080.0+0.07.640WaikatoAuckland
Taranaki143-0104678.5+4.841.5+4.21324231814703.2+0.200.0+0.08.640Taranaki
Waikato1012-0101566.2+4.128.0+2.28162022201313.7+0.130.2+0.05.570at AucklandWaikato
TasmanLOtago 27-3092-020-2451.6-12.313.4-8.4281625291814.3-0.440.4+0.21.500Tasman
Counties Manukau122-0202925.3+0.75.7+0.414713215125.1+0.020.5+0.19.500Counties Manukau
Hawke’s Bay30-040-660.2+0.10.0+0.0000014956.9+0.0164.8-2.114.220at CanterburyHawke’s Bay

Ending season with Ranfurly Shield chances:
Canterbury 25.3%
Waikato 21.0
Taranaki 11.9
Bay of Plenty 11.0
North Harbour 10.2
Auckland 8.1
Manawatu 3.0
Otago 2.8
Tasman: 2.2
Wellington 1.7
Hawke’s Bay 1.6
Southland 0.9
Counties Manukau 0.0
Northland: 0.0

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 9/8
Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury+0.7
-0.6
Auckland+2.6
-1.1
+0.1
Taranaki+3.1
-1.0
+0.1
Waikato+3.6
-0.7
+0.1
Tasman+4.0
-1.6
+0.1
Counties Manukau-14.0
-11.0
+0.5
-0.5
Hawke’s Bay-0.1
Otago 30 Tasman 27
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury+0.3
+0.6
+0.0
Auckland+1.1
+0.9
+0.1
Taranaki+1.4
+0.8
+0.1
Waikato+1.8
+0.6
+0.1
Tasman-5.9
-7.0
+0.1
-0.2
Counties Manukau+1.3
+0.1
+0.0
Taranaki 30 Southland 14
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury-0.2
-0.3
-0.0
Auckland-0.9
-0.6
-0.0
Taranaki+5.1
+3.6
-0.3
+0.2
Waikato-1.3
-0.4
-0.0
Tasman-1.5
-0.5
-0.0
Counties Manukau-1.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.0
Hawke’s Bay-1.3
North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury+0.9
Auckland+1.7
Taranaki+1.3
Waikato+1.2
Tasman+1.4
Counties Manukau+0.4
Hawke’s Bay+0.8
Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Hawke’s Bay-1.1
Auckland vs WaikatoIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury96.996.397.0
83.482.183.8
1.71.71.6
Auckland90.477.866.1
59.338.723.6
2.63.23.8
Taranaki78.777.178.1
40.942.042.5
Waikato55.368.684.5
16.628.747.5
0.30.10.0
4.23.63.0
Tasman52.654.649.6
13.216.013.6
4.34.24.3
Counties Manukau25.825.524.6
5.56.05.9
Counties Manukau vs TaranakiHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury96.796.997.0
84.483.482.9
Auckland80.980.981.7
48.447.144.2
Taranaki63.176.289.3
24.636.453.6
3.83.32.7
Waikato65.365.466.8
29.528.626.9
Tasman52.652.350.9
15.214.712.0
Counties Manukau41.228.014.1
11.45.01.7
0.00.20.8
4.65.05.5
Hawke’s Bay64.864.864.7
Canterbury vs Hawke’s BayHomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury97.694.289.4
85.573.863.3
1.62.12.3
Auckland81.382.082.3
45.648.349.3
3.12.92.9
Taranaki78.479.079.1
41.243.644.4
3.23.13.0
Waikato66.166.967.0
27.729.830.6
0.20.20.3
3.73.63.6
Tasman51.452.453.9
13.114.316.0
0.30.50.7
4.34.34.2
Counties Manukau25.2*25.427.1
5.65.87.0
0.41.01.2
Hawke’s Bay0.10.31.2
0.00.00.1
67.354.938.3
7.06.96.8
Week of 9/15
Waikato vs TaranakiIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury96.896.397.0
83.782.183.4
1.61.71.7
Auckland80.780.982.0
46.647.445.4
Taranaki65.577.890.7
25.138.157.2
3.83.22.6
Waikato81.964.451.3
42.724.714.2
0.00.10.3
3.13.84.3
Tasman50.055.252.9
13.615.613.0
4.34.24.3
Counties Manukau24.825.325.9
5.95.85.5
Hawke’s Bay64.864.864.7
Tasman vs NorthlandHomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury96.797.497.9
83.384.384.8
1.71.61.6
Auckland80.681.686.3
45.746.247.6
3.13.12.9
Taranaki77.679.084.1
41.341.843.3
3.23.23.0
Waikato65.067.073.9
27.828.329.5
0.20.20.3
3.83.73.5
Tasman55.444.726.5
15.08.72.7
0.10.42.0
4.24.55.0
Counties Manukau24.430.031.2
5.66.16.2
0.40.61.1
5.15.04.9
Hawke’s Bay0.20.20.3
63.365.074.7
Auckland vs Counties ManukauHomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury96.996.996.8
83.183.784.5
1.71.71.6
Auckland89.277.564.0
55.938.324.2
2.73.23.8
Taranaki78.977.677.5
40.342.344.2
Waikato66.765.065.1
27.028.730.1
Tasman51.651.851.6
12.415.215.5
Counties Manukau16.531.044.8
2.16.013.8
0.70.10.0
5.44.94.4
Manawatu vs CanterburyHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury93.196.598.8
69.380.290.6
0.00.0No
2.11.91.4
Auckland81.981.681.1
46.547.745.7
3.03.03.1
Taranaki78.878.678.3
42.043.141.2
3.13.13.2
Waikato66.766.465.9
28.429.427.7
3.63.73.8
Tasman52.951.751.0
14.413.512.9
4.24.34.3
Counties Manukau26.325.024.9
6.35.35.4
Hawke’s Bay65.065.064.6
Southland vs Hawke’s BayHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Waikato66.266.266.1
Counties Manukau0.50.80.5
Hawke’s Bay0.00.10.4
84.860.138.3
Otago vs North HarbourHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury83.882.981.7
Auckland46.344.844.2
Taranaki41.840.439.9
Waikato28.227.126.6
Tasman13.513.212.6
Counties Manukau5.8*5.74.9
Hawke’s Bay64.764.864.9
Wellington vs Bay of PlentyHomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury83.184.585.2
Auckland44.945.650.3
Taranaki40.641.045.3
Waikato27.227.731.2
Tasman12.714.216.0
Counties Manukau5.46.66.6
Hawke’s Bay64.465.365.9
Southland vs Bay of PlentyHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Canterbury83.783.683.4
Auckland46.2*46.045.8
Taranaki41.8*41.541.4
Waikato28.2*28.027.9
Tasman13.613.513.2
0.50.30.3
Counties Manukau5.85.85.6
0.70.50.3
Hawke’s Bay71.070.460.6

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.