Northland Playoff Chances 2016 50/50
Did not play, playoff odds down 1 to 9.1%
4 points 0-0 5 0
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 9/8 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25 | -13.7 | -1.6 | +15.2 | -0.6 | ||||
| Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28 | -2.0 | +0.2 | -0.1 | |||||
| Taranaki 30 Southland 14 | +1.8 | -0.2 | -2.0 | +0.1 | ||||
| North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25 | -0.3 | +1.3 | -0.0 | |||||
| Otago 30 Tasman 27 | -0.1 | -1.5 | ||||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||||
| Auckland vs Waikato | -0.0+0.1+0.0 | -0.5-0.3+0.5 | ||||||
| Canterbury vs Hawke’s Bay | -3.9+2.6+3.7 | |||||||
| Counties Manukau vs Taranaki | +0.6+0.6-0.6 | |||||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||||
| Week of 9/15 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Tasman vs Northland | -6.0+0.3+6.0 | No-0.1+0.1 | +16.3+1.4-16.4 | -0.3+0.0+0.3 | ||||
| Otago vs North Harbour | +1.7+1.2-1.8 | -1.2-0.7+1.3 | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | |||||
| Manawatu vs Canterbury | -1.5-1.1+1.6 | +0.8+0.8-0.8 | -0.1-0.0+0.1 | |||||
| Southland vs Bay of Plenty | +1.0+1.0-1.0 | +2.5-0.4-2.5 | ||||||
| Wellington vs Bay of Plenty | +0.4+1.4-0.5 | -0.0+0.1+0.0 | -1.0-0.7+1.0 | |||||
| Southland vs Hawke’s Bay | -0.5*+0.0+0.5 | -0.2+2.0+0.1 | -0.1-0.0+0.1 | |||||
| Waikato vs Taranaki | +0.0+0.1-0.0 | +0.5-0.3-0.5 | ||||||
| Auckland vs Counties Manukau | -0.6+0.5+0.6 | |||||||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Northland finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Home | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | OT | L | D | playoffs | Quarterfinal | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Relegated | Count | |||||||
| 20 | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 93.4 | % | 3.4 | % | 0 | 14 | 46 | 33 | 6 | 0 | No | 6,115,271 | ||||||
| 18 | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 79.4 | 0.1 | 4 | 30 | 46 | 19 | 2 | 0 | No | 1,329,865 | ||||||||
| 16 | 4 | - | 0 | 1 | 0 | 36.7 | No | 0 | 6 | 31 | 46 | 17 | 0 | 0.0 | % | 30,380,358 | |||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | 40.5 | No | 0 | 7 | 34 | 44 | 15 | 0 | 0.0 | 116,424 | |||||||||
| 14 | 3 | - | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15.4 | No | 0 | 1 | 14 | 47 | 35 | 3 | 2.3 | 5,322,696 | ||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12.8 | No | 1 | 12 | 46 | 38 | 4 | 3.1 | 5,136 | ||||||||||
| 12 | 3 | - | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.6 | No | 0 | 2 | 21 | 60 | 18 | 25.9 | 60,759,455 | |||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | No | 0 | 2 | 22 | 59 | 17 | 23.9 | 349,599 | ||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1.1 | No | 1 | 28 | 58 | 13 | 21.1 | 90 | |||||||||||
| 10 | 2 | - | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.2 | No | 0 | 0 | 8 | 54 | 37 | 64.4 | 7,979,324 | |||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.1 | No | 0 | 7 | 54 | 39 | 68.1 | 10,142 | |||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 5 | Out | No | 100 | No | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| 8 | 2 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 1 | 34 | 65 | 89.1 | 60,745,010 | ||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 1 | 34 | 65 | 88.7 | 348,722 | |||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 4 | Out | No | 1 | 36 | 63 | 86.1 | 108 | ||||||||||||
| 6 | 1 | - | 0 | 3 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 19 | 81 | 98.5 | 5,321,735 | |||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 3 | Out | No | 0 | 17 | 83 | 98.9 | 5,016 | ||||||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 0 | 4 | 0 | Out | No | 6 | 94 | 99.7 | 30,376,586 | ||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 3 | 2 | Out | No | 6 | 94 | 99.8 | 116,277 | |||||||||||||
| 2 | 0 | - | 0 | 4 | 1 | Out | No | 2 | 98 | 100.0 | 1,331,761 | ||||||||||||
| 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 5 | 0 | Out | No | 100 | Yes | 6,114,648 | |||||||||||||
| Total: | 9.1 | % | 0.1 | % | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 44 | 54.8 | % | 216,728,224 | |||||||||
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 9/8 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25 | +1.1 | |
| Taranaki 30 Southland 14 | -0.1 | |
| Otago 30 Tasman 27 | -0.1 | |
| Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28 | +0.1 | |
| North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25 | +0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||
| Canterbury vs Hawke’s Bay | -0.1+0.1+0.1 | |
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||
| Week of 9/15 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Tasman vs Northland | +0.7+0.1-0.7 | |
| Otago vs North Harbour | -0.1-0.1+0.1 | |
| Manawatu vs Canterbury | +0.1+0.1-0.1 | |
| Wellington vs Bay of Plenty | -0.0-0.1+0.0 | |
| Southland vs Hawke’s Bay | +0.0+0.1-0.0 | |
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | OT | L | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| 20 | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 37 | 29 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 18 | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 27 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 16 | 4 | - | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 18 | 29 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 19 | 27 | 11 | 1 | 0 | |||||||||
| 14 | 3 | - | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 24 | 36 | 17 | 2 | 0 | ||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 22 | 37 | 21 | 3 | 0 | ||||||||||
| 12 | 3 | - | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 47 | 24 | 2 | |||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 46 | 22 | 2 | ||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 46 | 18 | 3 | ||||||||||||
| 10 | 2 | - | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 31 | 49 | 16 | |||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 50 | 18 | ||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 5 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 2 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 50 | 40 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 50 | 39 | ||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 53 | 33 | |||||||||||||||
| 6 | 1 | - | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 70 | |||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 72 | |||||||||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 84 | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 84 | |||||||||||||||
| 2 | 0 | - | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 97 | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 99 | |||||||||||||||
| Total: | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 25 | 29 | |||||||||
Updated Saturday, 2023-11-11 11:37 AM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
