Northland Playoff Chances 2016Did not play, playoff odds down 0.2 to 0.3% 4 points 0-0 5 0 How are these numbers calculated? Big GamesHow we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain Week of 9/8 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed | Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25 | -4.4 | | -0.0 | | +13.1 | | -0.3 | | Taranaki 30 Southland 14 | +0.3 | | | | -1.6 | | +0.0 | | Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28 | -0.3 | | | | -0.1 | | | | North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25 | -0.1 | | | | +0.7 | | | | If winner is:HomeDrawAway | Counties Manukau vs Taranaki | | | | | +0.2+0.2-0.1 | | | | Canterbury vs Hawke’s Bay | | | | | -0.9+6.5+8.1 | | | | | If winner is:HomeDrawAway | Week of 9/15 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed | Tasman vs Northland | -0.2+0.3+1.2 | | No-0.0+0.0 | | +3.5-5.4-23.2 | | -0.0+0.1+0.3 | | Southland vs Bay of Plenty | +0.1+0.1-0.1 | | | | +6.0+1.2-3.8 | | -0.1-0.0+0.1 | | Manawatu vs Canterbury | -0.1-0.1+0.1 | | | | +0.1+0.1-0.1 | | | | Otago vs North Harbour | +0.0-0.0-0.1 | | | | -0.0*+0.0+0.1 | | | | Wellington vs Bay of Plenty | +0.0-0.0-0.1 | | | | -0.1+0.1+0.4 | | | | Southland vs Hawke’s Bay | | | | | +0.6+0.7-0.8 | | -0.1+0.0+0.1 | | Auckland vs Counties Manukau | | | | | -0.1+0.2+0.2 | | | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know. What IfChances based on how well the Northland finish out the regular season. Explain | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | If finish: | Chance in | Home | Chance will finish regular season at seed | | | TP | W | - | OT | | L | | D | playoffs | Quarterfinal | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Relegated | Count | | | | | | | | | | | | | 20 | | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 96.0 | % | 0.8 | % | | 8 | 56 | 32 | 4 | 0 | | No | 189,584 | | 18 | | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 84.8 | | 0.0 | | | 2 | 34 | 50 | 15 | 1 | | No | 47,473 | | 16 | | 4 | - | 0 | 1 | 0 | 48.3 | | No | | 0 | 9 | 39 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 0.0 | % | 1,857,648 | | | 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | 51.2 | | No | | 0 | 10 | 42 | 40 | 9 | | No | 13,662 | | 14 | | 3 | - | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23.8 | | No | | 0 | 2 | 22 | 54 | 22 | 0 | 0.1 | | 1,061,528 | | | 2 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21.1 | | No | | | 2 | 19 | 53 | 26 | | 0.1 | | 1,966 | | 12 | | 3 | - | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3.7 | | No | | | 0 | 4 | 37 | 58 | 1 | 1.6 | | 20,553,520 | | | 2 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3.9 | | No | | | 0 | 4 | 38 | 57 | 2 | 1.7 | | 219,871 | | | 1 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4.1 | | No | | | | 4 | 42 | 51 | 3 | 0.7 | | 145 | | 10 | | 2 | - | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | | No | | | 0 | 0 | 22 | 71 | 7 | 13.5 | | 8,436,251 | | | 1 | - | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.3 | | No | | | | 0 | 20 | 72 | 8 | 15.0 | | 19,006 | | | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 5 | Out | No | | | | | | 50 | 50 | 50.0 | | 2 | | 8 | | 2 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | | No | | | | 0 | 4 | 75 | 21 | 34.0 | | 107,964,478 | | | 1 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | | No | | | | 0 | 3 | 72 | 24 | 36.6 | | 1,101,887 | | | 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 4 | Out | No | | | | | 4 | 66 | 30 | 42.7 | | 600 | | 6 | | 1 | - | 0 | 3 | 1 | Out | No | | | | | 1 | 55 | 44 | 73.0 | | 27,921,204 | | | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 3 | Out | No | | | | | 1 | 50 | 50 | 76.7 | | 45,325 | | 4 | | 1 | - | 0 | 4 | 0 | Out | No | | | | | | 33 | 67 | 87.8 | | 264,998,965 | | | 0 | - | 0 | 3 | 2 | Out | No | | | | | | 24 | 76 | 91.9 | | 1,686,846 | | 2 | | 0 | - | 0 | 4 | 1 | Out | No | | | | | | 9 | 91 | 100.0 | | 31,537,793 | | 0 | | 0 | - | 0 | 5 | 0 | Out | No | | | | | | | 100 | Yes | 235,269,306 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | 0.3 | % | 0.0 | % | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 68 | 79.7 | % | 702,927,060 | |
Chance Will Make Playoffs
LotteryYe of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds. Big GamesWeek of 9/8 | 100.0* | Lottery seed | Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25 | +0.5 | | Taranaki 30 Southland 14 | -0.0 | | If winner is:HomeDrawAway | Canterbury vs Hawke’s Bay | -0.0+0.2+0.2 | | | If winner is:HomeDrawAway | Week of 9/15 | 100.0* | Lottery seed | Tasman vs Northland | +0.1-0.2-0.7 | | Southland vs Bay of Plenty | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | | Southland vs Hawke’s Bay | -0.0+0.1+0.1 | |
What If | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | TP | W | - | OT | | L | | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 20 | | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 0 | 1 | 12 | 38 | 37 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | | | | 18 | | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | | | | 0 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 35 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | | | 16 | | 4 | - | 0 | 1 | 0 | | | | | 0 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 15 | 25 | 11 | 1 | 0 | | | 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | | | | | | 0 | 11 | 40 | 15 | 23 | 10 | 1 | | | 14 | | 3 | - | 0 | 1 | 1 | | | | | | 0 | 2 | 22 | 7 | 30 | 32 | 8 | 0 | | | 2 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | | | | | | | 2 | 19 | 5 | 29 | 35 | 9 | 0 | | 12 | | 3 | - | 0 | 2 | 0 | | | | | | | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 42 | 2 | 0 | | 2 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | | | | | | | 0 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 43 | 40 | 2 | 0 | | 1 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | | | | | | | | 4 | | 10 | 45 | 40 | 1 | | 10 | | 2 | - | 0 | 2 | 1 | | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 61 | 13 | 0 | | 1 | - | 0 | 1 | 3 | | | | | | | | 0 | | 1 | 21 | 62 | 15 | 0 | | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 5 | | | | | | | | | | | | 50 | 50 | | 8 | | 2 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | 4 | 62 | 32 | 2 | | 1 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | | | | | | | | 0 | | 0 | 4 | 59 | 34 | 2 | | 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 4 | | | | | | | | | | | 5 | 53 | 40 | 2 | 6 | | 1 | - | 0 | 3 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 27 | 57 | 16 | | 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 3 | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 23 | 59 | 18 | 4 | | 1 | - | 0 | 4 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | 12 | 58 | 30 | | 0 | - | 0 | 3 | 2 | | | | | | | | | | | | 8 | 58 | 34 | 2 | | 0 | - | 0 | 4 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0 | 26 | 74 | 0 | | 0 | - | 0 | 5 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 15 | 85 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Total: | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 35 | 44 |
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