"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats" (thank you Mr. Dater) |
North Harbour Playoff Chances 2016 50/50
Beat Manawatu 29-25, playoff odds up 13.4 to 60.4%
9 points 2-0 2 0
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 9/8 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed |
| North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25 | +15.1 | +5.2 | -9.1 | +0.6 | ||||
| Taranaki 30 Southland 14 | +2.7 | -0.5 | -1.2 | +0.1 | ||||
| Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28 | -2.3 | +0.1 | +0.4 | -0.1 | ||||
| Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.5 | |||||
| Otago 30 Tasman 27 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | |||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||||
| Canterbury vs Hawke’s Bay | -0.8+0.2+0.8 | -1.4+0.5+1.4 | ||||||
| Auckland vs Waikato | -0.2+1.1+0.1 | -0.2-0.1+0.2 | ||||||
| Counties Manukau vs Taranaki | +0.2+0.1-0.2 | +0.2+0.2-0.2 | ||||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||||
| Week of 9/15 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Otago vs North Harbour | -13.2+0.6+13.2 | -7.6-0.1+7.6 | +6.1-0.6-6.1 | -0.5-0.0+0.5 | ||||
| Manawatu vs Canterbury | -3.2+0.3+3.2 | +0.2+0.5-0.2 | +0.3*-0.0-0.3 | -0.1+0.0+0.1 | ||||
| Southland vs Hawke’s Bay | -2.2+1.6+2.1 | -0.2-0.2+0.2 | -0.1+0.1+0.1 | |||||
| Southland vs Bay of Plenty | +1.5+2.0-1.6 | +0.3+0.2-0.4 | +0.9-0.6-0.9 | +0.0+0.1-0.0 | ||||
| Tasman vs Northland | +1.4-0.8-1.4 | -0.3+0.1+0.3 | -1.1+1.3+1.1 | +0.1-0.0-0.1 | ||||
| Wellington vs Bay of Plenty | +1.3-1.4-1.2 | -0.4*-0.0+0.4 | -0.2+0.3+0.2 | |||||
| Waikato vs Taranaki | +0.1+1.0-0.1 | +0.2-0.1-0.2 | ||||||
| Auckland vs Counties Manukau | -0.2+0.2+0.2 | -0.2+0.2+0.1 | ||||||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the North Harbour finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Home | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | OT | L | D | playoffs | Quarterfinal | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Relegated | Count | |||||||
| 32 | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | In | 100.0 | % | 64 | 35 | 1 | 0 | No | 3,008,337 | |||||||||
| 30 | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | In | 99.5 | 27 | 64 | 10 | 0 | No | 780,088 | ||||||||||
| 28 | 5 | - | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 | % | 88.5 | 17 | 62 | 20 | 1 | 0 | No | 17,840,094 | ||||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | In | 89.2 | 15 | 65 | 20 | 1 | No | 85,373 | |||||||||||
| 26 | 4 | - | 0 | 1 | 1 | 99.9 | 53.6 | 2 | 48 | 43 | 6 | 0 | No | 3,905,478 | |||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | 99.9 | 53.7 | 2 | 48 | 43 | 6 | 0 | No | 5,126 | ||||||||||
| 24 | 4 | - | 0 | 2 | 0 | 98.7 | 7.1 | 1 | 28 | 51 | 19 | 1 | 0 | No | 44,591,787 | ||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | 98.9 | 7.4 | 1 | 28 | 52 | 18 | 1 | No | 341,841 | ||||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | 98.3 | 7.5 | 1 | 28 | 47 | 23 | 2 | No | 174 | ||||||||||
| 22 | 3 | - | 0 | 2 | 1 | 92.7 | 0.4 | 9 | 44 | 40 | 7 | 0 | No | 7,810,242 | |||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 1 | 3 | 93.1 | 0.3 | 9 | 44 | 40 | 7 | 0 | No | 14,927 | ||||||||||
| 20 | 3 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 | 73.3 | 0.0 | 2 | 22 | 49 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | % | 59,451,687 | |||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 74.8 | 0.0 | 2 | 23 | 50 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 511,622 | |||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 1 | 4 | 74.1 | No | 1 | 23 | 50 | 25 | 1 | No | 313 | ||||||||||
| 18 | 2 | - | 0 | 3 | 1 | 41.7 | No | 0 | 6 | 36 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 0.3 | 7,804,908 | ||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 2 | 3 | 42.2 | No | 0 | 6 | 36 | 47 | 11 | 0 | 0.4 | 14,950 | |||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 5 | 33.3 | No | 33 | 33 | 33 | No | 3 | ||||||||||||
| 16 | 2 | - | 0 | 4 | 0 | 14.0 | No | 0 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 34 | 3 | 6.5 | 44,593,084 | ||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 3 | 2 | 14.0 | No | 0 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 33 | 3 | 6.6 | 342,771 | |||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 4 | 13.3 | No | 13 | 51 | 35 | 1 | 7.0 | 158 | |||||||||||
| 14 | 1 | - | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2.5 | No | 0 | 2 | 27 | 53 | 17 | 39.3 | 3,903,289 | |||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2.3 | No | 0 | 2 | 27 | 53 | 18 | 39.5 | 5,007 | ||||||||||
| 12 | 1 | - | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.2 | No | 0 | 0 | 8 | 50 | 42 | 73.4 | 17,839,136 | |||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.2 | No | 0 | 8 | 48 | 44 | 74.7 | 85,381 | |||||||||||
| 10 | 0 | - | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 1 | 27 | 72 | 95.2 | 780,872 | ||||||||||
| 8 | 0 | - | 0 | 6 | 0 | Out | No | 9 | 91 | 99.3 | 3,011,576 | ||||||||||||
| Total: | 60.4 | % | 11.5 | % | 3 | 13 | 21 | 23 | 20 | 13 | 6 | 9.9 | % | 216,728,224 | |||||||||
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Updated Saturday, 2023-11-11 11:37 AM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
