"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/8100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25 -8.9
-11.5
+0.3
-0.4
Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25 -0.6
Taranaki 30 Southland 14 +0.4
-0.5
+0.0
Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28 -0.2
-0.7
-0.1
Otago 30 Tasman 27 +0.5
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Canterbury vs Hawke’s Bay-0.1+0.6+1.5
-0.0+0.2+0.4
Auckland vs Waikato-0.2-1.0+0.4
Counties Manukau vs Taranaki+0.5-0.2-0.3
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/15100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Manawatu vs Canterbury+13.8+3.0-6.9
+9.2-0.9-4.5
-0.6-0.4+0.3
+0.4+0.1-0.2
Wellington vs Bay of Plenty+2.5-5.0-9.6
-0.5+0.9+1.8
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Southland vs Bay of Plenty+7.2+0.2-4.6
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.3+0.2-0.2
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Otago vs North Harbour+0.8-2.6-5.2
+0.2-0.4-1.0
+0.0-0.1-0.2
Southland vs Hawke’s Bay-0.4-0.0+0.5
+0.0+0.2-0.0
Tasman vs Northland+0.1+0.0-0.5
-0.2+0.5+1.0
-0.1-0.0+0.5
Auckland vs Counties Manukau-0.4-0.1+0.9
Waikato vs Taranaki+0.1-0.9-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Manawatu finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inHomeChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-OTLDplayoffsQuarterfinal1234567RelegatedCount
326-000InYes2476No2,295,699
305-001In99.5%137890No826,038
285-010In95.2271270No24,668,697
4-002In94.9271270No124,239
264-011100.0%55.01494830No7,215,397
3-003In56.3046503No9,520
244-020100.020.90246790No103,107,649
3-012100.019.30246790No804,940
2-004In19.526659No411
223-02198.90.7010612810No22,337,566
2-01399.10.8862291No42,523
1-005InNo100No11
203-03096.10.02474740No202,737,766
2-02295.20.02464850No1,727,472
1-01493.9No144496No1,107
182-03180.30.002258200No30,254,511
1-02380.5No02159190No56,063
0-01575.0No255025No4
162-04061.5No085438000.0%193,530,376
1-03257.8No07514200.01,416,592
0-02455.5No650441No659
141-04129.8No012866400.017,291,854
0-03328.7No12867400.020,901
121-05010.9No011791000.780,602,139
0-0429.8No010801000.8359,692
100-0511.7No02653318.33,111,919
80-0600.0No04847532.310,383,315
Total:73.4%7.5%08303524200.6%702,927,060
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 9/8100.0*Lottery seed
North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25 +1.0
Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28 +0.1
Otago 30 Tasman 27 -0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Auckland vs Waikato-0.0+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/15100.0*Lottery seed
Manawatu vs Canterbury-1.1-0.1+0.6
Southland vs Bay of Plenty-0.2+0.0+0.1
Otago vs North Harbour-0.0+0.1+0.3
Wellington vs Bay of Plenty-0.1+0.1+0.2
Tasman vs Northland+0.0-0.1-0.1
Waikato vs Taranaki+0.0+0.1-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPW-OTLD1234567891011121314
326-0001671130
305-00144641910
285-0100194829500
4-002018472950
264-0110114393510100
3-0031144134910
244-020021943306000
3-01202174231700
2-004217462860
223-0210019344312100
2-013011034431110
1-00594545
203-030001115034310
2-02201104836410
1-014194737520
182-031001235661030
1-02301235771030
0-015255025
162-040008544191600
1-03207514201800
0-024650422180
141-041012812343400
0-0331281224350
121-05001107631810
0-04201007632010
100-0510202404880
80-060001553302
Total:01247920302713310