Hawke’s Bay Playoff Chances 2016 50/50
Did not play, playoff odds up 0.8 to 7.1%
3 points 0-0 4 0
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 9/8 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Taranaki 30 Southland 14 | -0.9 | -0.1 | -2.2 | -0.1 | ||||
| Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28 | +0.9 | +0.3 | +0.1 | |||||
| Otago 30 Tasman 27 | +0.9 | -0.8 | +0.1 | |||||
| North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25 | +1.6 | |||||||
| Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25 | -0.9 | |||||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||||
| Canterbury vs Hawke’s Bay | -5.2-2.5+5.3 | -1.1-0.6+1.1 | +14.0-1.8-13.9 | -0.3-0.1+0.3 | ||||
| Auckland vs Waikato | +0.2-1.2-0.1 | -0.0-0.1+0.1 | -0.5+0.7+0.5 | +0.0-0.1-0.0 | ||||
| Counties Manukau vs Taranaki | -0.0-0.1+0.0 | +0.1+0.1-0.1 | ||||||
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||||||||
| Week of 9/15 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Home Quarterfinal | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Southland vs Hawke’s Bay | -4.8-2.4+4.9 | -1.0-0.6+1.1 | +17.9-4.3-17.7 | -0.3-0.1+0.3 | ||||
| Tasman vs Northland | -0.9+0.4+0.9 | -2.6-2.7+2.7 | -0.1+0.0+0.1 | |||||
| Manawatu vs Canterbury | +0.7-0.5-0.7 | +0.1-0.1-0.1 | +0.8+0.8-0.8 | |||||
| Waikato vs Taranaki | -0.1-1.2+0.1 | +0.0-0.1-0.0 | +0.5+0.7-0.5 | -0.0-0.1+0.0 | ||||
| Auckland vs Counties Manukau | +0.1-0.1-0.1 | -0.1+0.1+0.1 | ||||||
| Wellington vs Bay of Plenty | -0.1+0.1+0.1 | -1.0-0.2+1.0 | ||||||
| Otago vs North Harbour | +0.1+0.0-0.1 | -1.4-0.3+1.4 | ||||||
| Southland vs Bay of Plenty | +2.0+2.0-2.1 | |||||||
What If
Chances based on how well the Hawke’s Bay finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Home | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | OT | L | D | playoffs | Quarterfinal | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Relegated | Count | |||||||
| 24 | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.3 | % | 68.5 | % | 8 | 38 | 41 | 12 | 1 | 0 | No | 3,011,823 | ||||||
| 22 | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 83.5 | 15.1 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 43 | 15 | 1 | 0 | No | 780,709 | |||||||
| 20 | 5 | - | 0 | 1 | 0 | 56.3 | 0.8 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 41 | 35 | 8 | 0 | No | 17,834,657 | |||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | 54.5 | 0.7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 40 | 36 | 9 | 1 | No | 85,657 | ||||||||
| 18 | 4 | - | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13.1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 43 | 37 | 7 | 0.0 | % | 3,902,783 | |||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13.3 | No | 1 | 13 | 43 | 37 | 7 | No | 5,007 | ||||||||||
| 16 | 4 | - | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2.8 | No | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 49 | 25 | 0.3 | 44,601,062 | ||||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2.6 | No | 0 | 3 | 23 | 49 | 25 | 0.3 | 340,920 | ||||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2.9 | No | 3 | 20 | 51 | 25 | No | 171 | |||||||||||
| 14 | 3 | - | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.1 | No | 0 | 6 | 40 | 54 | 6.4 | 7,806,813 | ||||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.1 | No | 0 | 6 | 40 | 55 | 5.8 | 15,180 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 0 | 5 | Out | No | 50 | 50 | No | 4 | |||||||||||||
| 12 | 3 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 1 | 20 | 79 | 40.5 | 59,456,020 | ||||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | No | 0 | 1 | 20 | 79 | 43.1 | 513,764 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 1 | 4 | Out | No | 1 | 29 | 70 | 41.4 | 278 | ||||||||||||
| 10 | 2 | - | 0 | 3 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 9 | 91 | 73.2 | 7,807,591 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 2 | 3 | Out | No | 0 | 7 | 93 | 71.8 | 14,922 | ||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 5 | Out | No | 100 | 75.0 | 4 | ||||||||||||||
| 8 | 2 | - | 0 | 4 | 0 | Out | No | 0 | 2 | 98 | 95.0 | 44,588,195 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 3 | 2 | Out | No | 0 | 2 | 98 | 96.0 | 342,264 | ||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 4 | Out | No | 2 | 98 | 94.0 | 167 | |||||||||||||
| 6 | 1 | - | 0 | 4 | 1 | Out | No | 0 | 100 | 99.1 | 3,902,638 | ||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 3 | 3 | Out | No | 100 | 99.0 | 4,989 | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | -4 | Out | No | 100 | 100.0 | 21,712,606 | * | ||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 7.1 | % | 1.1 | % | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 65 | 45.7 | % | 216,728,224 | |||||||||
* Row combines multiple less frequent records.
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 9/8 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Otago 30 Tasman 27 | -0.1 | |
| Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25 | -0.0 | |
| Taranaki 30 Southland 14 | -0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||
| Canterbury vs Hawke’s Bay | +0.8+0.1-0.8 | |
| Auckland vs Waikato | -0.0+0.1+0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeDrawAway | ||
| Week of 9/15 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Southland vs Hawke’s Bay | +0.8-0.0-0.8 | |
| Tasman vs Northland | -0.0-0.1+0.0 | |
| Otago vs North Harbour | -0.1-0.0+0.1 | |
| Waikato vs Taranaki | +0.0+0.1-0.0 | |
| Southland vs Bay of Plenty | +0.0+0.1-0.0 | |
| Manawatu vs Canterbury | +0.0+0.1-0.0 | |
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | OT | L | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| 24 | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 41 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 22 | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 35 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 0 | |||||||
| 20 | 5 | - | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 20 | 5 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 20 | 5 | 36 | 9 | 1 | |||||||||
| 18 | 4 | - | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 40 | 38 | 8 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 38 | 8 | 0 | ||||||||||
| 16 | 4 | - | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 43 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 43 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 42 | 36 | 8 | ||||||||||||
| 14 | 3 | - | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 45 | 31 | 6 | 0 | ||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 46 | 30 | 6 | 0 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 50 | 25 | |||||||||||||||
| 12 | 3 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 44 | 35 | 5 | ||||||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 43 | 37 | 6 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 5 | ||||||||||||
| 10 | 2 | - | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 53 | 20 | |||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 52 | 19 | |||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 50 | |||||||||||||||
| 8 | 2 | - | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 43 | 52 | ||||||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 56 | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 59 | |||||||||||||||
| 6 | 1 | - | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 73 | |||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 72 | |||||||||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 91 | ||||||||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 94 | |||||||||||||||
| 2 | 0 | - | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 97 | |||||||||||||||
| 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 6 | 0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 22 | 24 | ||||||||
Updated Saturday, 2023-11-11 11:37 AM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
