Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsHome QuarterfinalChance will finish regular season at seedRelegated
PGW-OTLDGD%Change%Change1234567Avg.Change%ChangeRPI
Otago245-0005599.9%+0.792.9%+10.2831331001.2+0.24No-0.04Otago
Wellington1313-010-882.4-1.633.2-0.5832241812513.1-0.082.1%+0.23Wellington
Manawatu1112-020-374.4-6.823.7-6.5423252217723.5-0.414.6+0.710Manawatu
Bay of Plenty911-0301360.4-1.712.1+0.32172021211354.0-0.039.6+0.213Bay of Plenty
North Harbour912-020-860.4+13.411.5+4.43132123201364.1+0.469.9-8.96North Harbour
Southland210-040-7713.5-2.90.6-0.101481628435.9-0.1253.7+1.911Southland
Northland40-050-799.1-1.00.1-0.000261433446.1-0.0754.8+2.712Northland

Ending season with Ranfurly Shield chances:
Canterbury 25.3%
Waikato 21.0
Taranaki 11.9
Bay of Plenty 11.0
North Harbour 10.2
Auckland 8.1
Manawatu 3.0
Otago 2.8
Tasman: 2.2
Wellington 1.7
Hawke’s Bay 1.6
Southland 0.9
Counties Manukau 0.0
Northland: 0.0

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 9/8
North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago-0.1
+0.7
Wellington-1.3
+0.6
+0.2
+0.0
Manawatu-11.1
-12.2
+3.1
-0.5
Bay of Plenty-1.9
+0.5
+0.5
-0.0
North Harbour+15.1
+5.2
-9.1
+0.6
Southland-0.4
+0.1
+1.3
-0.0
Northland-0.3
+1.3
-0.0
Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago-0.2
Wellington-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.0
Manawatu-0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.0
Bay of Plenty+14.8
+4.2
-12.1
+0.6
North Harbour-0.4
-0.1
-0.5
Southland-0.3
-0.8
Northland-13.7
-1.6
+15.2
-0.6
Taranaki 30 Southland 14
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago+0.1
-0.7
Wellington+2.2
-1.0
-0.6
+0.1
Manawatu+1.7
-1.1
-0.4
+0.1
Bay of Plenty+2.2
-0.4
-1.5
+0.1
North Harbour+2.7
-0.5
-1.2
+0.1
Southland-10.7
-2.5
+12.9
-0.4
Northland+1.8
-0.2
-2.0
+0.1
Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago-0.1
+0.1
-0.1
Wellington+9.6
+11.9
-3.7
+0.5
Manawatu-1.3
+0.5
+0.1
-0.1
Bay of Plenty-2.1
+0.1
+0.1
-0.1
North Harbour-2.3
+0.1
+0.4
-0.1
Southland-1.7
+0.6
-0.1
Northland-2.0
+0.2
-0.1
Otago 30 Tasman 27
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago+0.7
+9.9
No
+0.2
Wellington-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
Manawatu*-0.1
*+0.1
-0.2
-0.1
Bay of Plenty-0.2
-0.5
North Harbour-0.1
-0.1
-0.6
Southland-1.0
Northland-0.1
-1.5
Canterbury vs Hawke’s BayIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago92.192.393.7
Wellington31.933.134.5
1.72.42.6
Manawatu22.423.625.1
3.94.45.3
Bay of Plenty11.412.412.9
8.39.910.8
North Harbour10.711.712.3
8.510.311.2
Southland50.651.956.9
Northland50.957.358.5
Auckland vs WaikatoHomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago92.691.993.1
Wellington32.835.033.5
Manawatu23.422.124.2
Bay of Plenty12.013.512.3
North Harbour11.312.611.6
Southland53.354.454.1
Northland54.254.555.3
Counties Manukau vs TaranakiHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Wellington33.633.732.8
Northland55.355.354.2
Week of 9/15
Wellington vs Bay of PlentyIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago92.493.893.3
1.31.21.2
Wellington93.484.871.2
48.034.618.4
0.31.64.0
2.63.13.7
Manawatu76.373.272.5
22.924.024.6
4.44.74.8
Bay of Plenty45.161.475.6
3.912.420.4
15.78.73.4
4.64.03.4
North Harbour61.758.959.2
11.1*11.511.9
9.710.110.0
Southland14.111.113.0
52.655.154.8
5.96.06.0
Northland9.510.58.6
53.854.155.7
Southland vs Bay of PlentyHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago93.293.292.5
Wellington83.284.481.4
34.033.832.4
2.51.81.8
3.13.03.2
Manawatu76.473.072.4
24.423.623.1
5.25.24.0
3.53.63.6
Bay of Plenty45.860.275.0
4.612.419.7
16.68.92.5
4.64.13.5
North Harbour61.962.458.8
11.911.711.2
10.89.39.0
4.14.04.1
Southland22.610.14.5
1.20.10.0
38.753.668.7
5.56.06.4
Northland10.110.18.1
57.354.352.3
Otago vs North HarbourHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago98.294.087.4
1.11.21.4
Wellington84.783.180.0
33.433.133.0
2.02.12.3
3.13.13.2
Manawatu77.773.771.0
24.123.923.4
4.34.75.0
3.43.53.6
Bay of Plenty64.059.856.8
9.19.710.0
3.94.14.1
North Harbour47.161.073.6
3.911.419.2
16.09.33.8
4.64.13.6
Southland15.612.111.4
52.454.755.0
5.96.06.0
Northland10.810.37.3
53.554.156.0
6.06.06.1
Manawatu vs CanterburyHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago93.091.892.7
Wellington80.581.784.3
33.633.132.9
3.23.13.0
Manawatu85.474.763.3
36.519.411.2
1.23.18.1
3.13.54.0
Bay of Plenty57.460.963.4
12.412.811.9
4.14.03.9
North Harbour57.160.763.6
11.712.011.3
10.1*9.99.6
4.24.14.0
Southland12.114.214.8
54.153.653.3
Northland7.68.010.7
55.655.653.9
6.16.16.0
Southland vs Hawke’s BayHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Wellington81.083.483.7
Manawatu73.173.875.6
4.74.94.5
Bay of Plenty58.461.962.3
9.59.29.6
4.14.04.0
North Harbour58.262.062.5
9.79.710.0
4.24.04.0
Southland20.89.96.4
1.20.10.0
36.456.570.9
5.66.16.3
Northland8.6*9.19.6
54.556.754.9
6.26.16.0
Tasman vs NorthlandHomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago92.593.293.3
Wellington83.282.081.5
32.333.634.1
1.82.52.5
Manawatu76.075.772.7
22.9*23.724.6
4.04.15.2
3.53.53.6
Bay of Plenty61.759.959.1
11.7*12.212.6
8.710.710.3
4.04.14.1
North Harbour61.859.659.0
11.211.611.8
8.711.210.9
4.04.14.2
Southland14.213.512.7
51.754.755.7
5.85.96.0
Northland3.19.415.1
No0.00.2
71.156.238.4
6.46.05.8
Waikato vs TaranakiHomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago93.191.992.7
Wellington33.535.132.9
Manawatu24.022.123.5
Bay of Plenty12.213.312.0
North Harbour11.612.511.4
Southland54.254.453.2
Northland55.354.554.2
Auckland vs Counties ManukauHomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Wellington32.733.633.7
Northland54.255.355.3

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.