Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Explain

100100100100100100100
Chance will make playoffsHome QuarterfinalChance will finish regular season at seedRelegated
9/10PGW-OTLDGD%Change%Change1234567Avg.Change%ChangeRPIStrengthSunday
OtagoWTasman 30-27245-00055100.0%+0.099.4%+4.19450001.1+0.14No4.850Otago
Wellington1313-010-898.8-0.366.9+4.85761341002.2+0.010.0%+0.03.640Wellington
North HarbourWManawatu 29-25912-020-878.6+27.55.8+4.207383318303.7+0.730.5-3.36.500North Harbour
ManawatuLNorth Harbour 25-291112-020-373.4-17.97.5-13.508303524203.8-0.730.6+0.410.500Manawatu
Bay of Plenty911-0301345.7-6.52.3+0.3041724411214.4-0.033.7+0.213.360Bay of Plenty
Southland210-040-773.2-2.60.0+0.000131353316.1-0.1049.7+3.011.220Southland
Northland40-050-790.3-0.20.0000229686.7-0.0279.7+1.612.150Northland

Ending season with Ranfurly Shield chances:
Canterbury 25.3%
Waikato 21.0
Taranaki 11.9
Bay of Plenty 11.0
North Harbour 10.2
Auckland 8.1
Manawatu 3.0
Otago 2.8
Tasman: 2.2
Wellington 1.7
Hawke’s Bay 1.6
Southland 0.9
Counties Manukau 0.0
Northland: 0.0

Big Games

Who should we root for?   Explain

Week of 9/8
North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago+0.3
Wellington-0.3
+2.1
+0.1
North Harbour+17.6
+2.0
-2.8
+0.4
Manawatu-8.9
-11.5
+0.3
-0.4
Bay of Plenty-7.0
+0.1
+0.1
Southland-1.2
+0.8
-0.1
Northland-0.1
+0.7
Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Wellington-0.2
North Harbour-1.9
-0.4
-0.0
Manawatu-0.6
Bay of Plenty+7.6
+0.3
-9.9
+0.3
Southland-0.5
-1.6
Northland-4.4
+13.1
-0.3
Taranaki 30 Southland 14
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago-0.1
Wellington+0.3
-0.6
North Harbour+2.1
-0.1
-0.3
+0.0
Manawatu+0.4
-0.5
+0.0
Bay of Plenty+0.9
-0.8
+0.0
Southland-4.0
-0.1
+4.5
-0.1
Northland+0.3
-1.6
+0.0
Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago-0.3
Wellington+2.1
+17.2
-0.1
+0.3
North Harbour-0.7
-0.1
-0.1
Manawatu-0.2
-0.7
-0.1
Bay of Plenty-0.6
-0.1
Southland-0.3
Northland-0.3
-0.1
Otago 30 Tasman 27
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago+2.6
+0.1
Wellington+0.8
-0.0
Manawatu+0.5
Bay of Plenty+0.1
Canterbury vs Hawke’s BayIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago99.499.499.5
Wellington66.568.070.7
North Harbour5.76.57.4
0.50.71.0
Manawatu7.38.19.0
0.60.71.0
Bay of Plenty2.22.42.7
3.44.86.4
Southland48.550.963.3
Northland78.886.287.8
Counties Manukau vs TaranakiHomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Wellington69.769.364.8
North Harbour6.66.55.3
Manawatu8.07.37.1
Bay of Plenty2.52.52.0
3.83.83.6
Southland49.849.749.6
Northland79.979.879.6
Auckland vs WaikatoHomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Wellington66.570.867.4
North Harbour5.77.16.1
Manawatu7.36.57.8
Bay of Plenty2.22.72.3
Week of 9/15
Southland vs Bay of PlentyIf winner is:HomeDrawAway
Wed100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Wellington99.299.198.5
67.367.266.6
North Harbour83.181.375.6
0.70.50.4
3.63.73.8
Manawatu80.673.568.8
7.6*7.57.4
0.90.80.4
3.73.83.9
Bay of Plenty29.343.356.2
0.41.63.4
9.03.10.3
4.94.54.1
Southland7.32.30.6
31.343.361.5
5.76.16.3
Northland0.40.40.2
85.680.875.9
6.86.76.6
Wellington vs Bay of PlentyHomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago99.499.599.5
Wellington99.798.795.0
73.462.741.3
2.12.32.6
North Harbour80.476.171.8
5.56.27.3
3.73.83.8
Manawatu75.968.363.8
7.08.39.3
3.83.93.9
Bay of Plenty40.254.266.9
0.83.78.1
4.51.70.5
4.64.23.8
Southland3.52.32.3
49.450.951.0
6.16.26.2
Northland0.30.30.2
79.679.880.1
Manawatu vs CanterburyHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Wellington98.498.699.0
68.066.666.4
2.32.22.2
North Harbour73.577.281.2
6.66.05.5
3.93.83.6
Manawatu87.276.366.4
16.76.63.0
0.00.20.9
3.43.74.0
Bay of Plenty38.344.349.4
2.42.32.2
4.64.44.4
Southland2.53.33.6
49.8*49.749.7
Northland0.20.20.4
79.879.879.6
Otago vs North HarbourHomeDrawAway
Sat100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Otago99.899.196.9
1.01.11.2
Wellington98.998.698.3
67.366.664.3
North Harbour76.486.892.3
3.610.920.4
0.60.20.0
3.83.53.2
Manawatu74.270.868.2
7.67.16.5
3.83.94.0
Bay of Plenty46.841.539.1
2.32.22.1
4.44.54.6
Southland3.42.11.9
49.749.949.9
Northland0.30.30.2
79.7*79.779.8
Southland vs Hawke’s BayHomeDrawAway
Thu100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
North Harbour77.879.479.5
0.50.50.6
Manawatu73.073.373.9
0.60.80.6
Bay of Plenty45.146.446.5
3.33.44.3
4.54.44.4
Southland5.01.80.9
29.653.676.3
5.96.26.3
Northland80.380.478.9
6.76.66.5
Tasman vs NorthlandHomeDrawAway
Fri100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Wellington66.568.669.1
North Harbour78.678.478.2
5.86.16.2
0.50.90.9
Manawatu73.473.472.9
7.37.98.4
0.50.61.1
Bay of Plenty45.845.645.4
2.22.42.5
3.54.75.0
Southland48.353.458.4
6.16.26.3
Northland0.10.61.6
No0.00.0
83.274.356.5
6.76.56.4
Auckland vs Counties ManukauHomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Wellington65.369.770.3
North Harbour5.36.76.9
Manawatu7.17.48.4
Bay of Plenty2.12.52.6
3.73.83.8
Southland49.749.849.8
Northland79.679.879.9
Waikato vs TaranakiHomeDrawAway
Sun100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Wellington67.270.766.5
North Harbour6.06.95.7
Manawatu7.56.67.5
Bay of Plenty2.32.62.2

* A starred outcome could have no effect or just a really small effect. The simulation did not run long enough to know.