"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 9/8100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Bay of Plenty 52 Northland 25 +14.8
+4.2
-12.1
+0.6
Taranaki 30 Southland 14 +2.2
-0.4
-1.5
+0.1
Counties Manukau 27 Wellington 28 -2.1
+0.1
+0.1
-0.1
North Harbour 29 Manawatu 25 -1.9
+0.5
+0.5
-0.0
Otago 30 Tasman 27 -0.2
-0.5
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Canterbury vs Hawke’s Bay-0.8+0.2+0.8
-1.3+0.4+1.3
Auckland vs Waikato-0.2+1.3+0.1
-0.2-0.1+0.2
Counties Manukau vs Taranaki+0.2+0.2-0.2
+0.2+0.1-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 9/15100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Home Quarterfinal100.0*Relegated100.0*Average seed
Wellington vs Bay of Plenty-15.3+1.0+15.2
-8.3+0.2+8.3
+6.2-0.8-6.1
-0.6+0.0+0.6
Southland vs Bay of Plenty-14.6-0.2+14.6
-7.5+0.3+7.5
+7.1-0.6-7.0
-0.5-0.0+0.5
Otago vs North Harbour+3.6-0.6-3.6
+0.1-0.1-0.1
-0.4+0.2+0.4
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Manawatu vs Canterbury-3.0+0.5+3.0
+0.2+0.6-0.3
+0.2*+0.0-0.2
-0.1+0.0+0.1
Southland vs Hawke’s Bay-2.0+1.5+1.9
-0.1-0.3+0.1
-0.1+0.1+0.1
Tasman vs Northland+1.3-0.5-1.3
-0.5*+0.0+0.5
-0.8+1.2+0.8
+0.1-0.0-0.1
Waikato vs Taranaki+0.1+1.2-0.1
+0.2-0.0-0.2
Auckland vs Counties Manukau-0.2+0.3+0.2
-0.2+0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bay of Plenty finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inHomeChance will finish regular season at seed
TPW-OTLDplayoffsQuarterfinal1234567RelegatedCount
286-000In100.0%48520No3,011,059
265-001In99.7197840No782,198
245-010100.0%89.814731300No17,835,969
4-002100.091.214741200No85,767
224-01199.959.22603440No3,902,418
3-00399.958.52643130No4,937
204-02098.89.1136481410No44,596,049
3-01298.910.013748141No341,082
2-00498.911.613354121No189
183-02192.30.512453580No7,804,739
2-01392.20.413453480No14,935
1-005InNo100No2
163-03073.90.03254625100.0%59,453,395
2-02274.20.03254624100.0511,960
1-01473.0No22942261No311
142-03139.8No0633491100.37,810,277
1-02339.0No0633491200.214,813
0-015OutNo100No1
122-04013.6No0113523235.944,593,578
1-03213.8No0113533125.8343,376
0-02415.3No114542835.1177
101-0411.9No0230531537.73,900,670
0-0331.2No0128541739.04,949
81-0500.1No0011553471.517,838,040
0-0420.1No0013553271.085,743
60-051OutNo2346494.8781,019
40-060OutNo0217999.23,010,571
Total:60.4%12.1%2172021211359.6%216,728,224
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs